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WNBA Finals Predictions Today: Liberty vs Lynx WNBA Playoff Game 3 Best Bets and Odds on October 16

Publish Date: 10/16/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Game 3 of the WNBA Finals is tonight, and the New York Liberty (32-8, 16-4 away) and the Minnesota Lynx (30-10, 16-4 home) will face off in an important matchup. The best-of-five games, the series will shift to Minnesota for the next two matchups, given the first two took place in Brooklyn.

(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

Down 1-0, the Liberty took care of business, defeating the Lynx 80-66 in game 2 on their home court. While the Liberty shocked several bettors, covering the -7.5 point favorable spread, they head into game 3 of the Finals as 2.5 point spread favorites.

The Liberty have gotten off to a hot start in the first quarter of both games and continued that streak on Sunday. Scoring 31 first-quarter points, it marked the most field goals New York has made in a quarter this postseason. Following a 32-point first-quarter performance in game 1, the Liberty continued that trajectory in game 2.

Lead by Benijah Laney-Hamilton, the Liberty forward finished with 20 points, on 4-6 three-point shooting. Although the former Rutgers standout was plagued by a knee injury all season, head coach Sandy Brondello admitted she wasn't 100 percent. However, that didn't stop Laney-Hamilton from not only hitting her shots, but ferociously  attacking the basket.

One of New York's top defenders, Laney-Hamilton stepped up as the primary guard on Lynx Courtney Williams in several possessions. Liberty forward Breanna Stewart put up 21 points and 8 rebounds, on 7-18 field goal shooting. Known for her defensive prowess, Stewart finished with a WNBA Finals record seven steals.

The Liberty Evened The Series 1-1

As for the Lynx, Napheesa Collier led all scorers on her squad with 16 points and eight rebounds. More of a well balanced approached, the Lynx had three starters who scored in double figures. While the Liberty's defense was the main storyline, they have a tough task ahead on the road vs Minnesota. Now pressured to perform on the biggest stage the Liberty haven't won on the Lynx home court since August 2023. After all head coach Cheryl Reeve has built a championship culture atmosphere in Minnesota, a franchise that's won four WNBA Championships.

While the odds have shifted, the Liberty have remained the favorites to win the WNBA Finals. Now with -220 odds to win it all, the Lynx are the +184 underdogs to win an WNBA leading fifth championship. Underdogs for the second straight game, the Lynx will have the chance to take a series lead at home.

Odds Are Current As Of October 15 AT 12 P.M. ET

As we get deeper into the WNBA Finals, the spread will start to narrow, and betting will become more difficult. With that said, I'm here to give my best spread prediction for tonight's game. If you're looking to stay in the green and tail my bets, I have a WNBA betting record of 191-157 this season. As a reporter and capper for Ballislife, I will provide my best analysis, along with current odds for today's matchup. Given the high competition in this years finals, I chose to place all my bets within DraftKings Sportsbook, and placed one unit on each play.

If you're planning to bet on the WNBA Finals, game 3 will air on ESPN. With tip-off set to take place at 8 p.m. ET, game 3 will be held at Target Center, located in Minneapolis, MN.

Let's take a look into game 3 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx! In this article, I'll provide my best bet for tonight's matchup.

Are you looking to bet on the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

WNBA Finals Game 3: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx DraftKings Odds For October 16

MONEYLINE

  • NEW YORK LIBERTY: -148
  • MINNESOTA LYNX: +124

SPREAD

  • NEW YORK LIBERTY: -2.5 (-112)
  • MINNESOTA LYNX: +2.5 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 160.5 (-110)
  • UNDER: 160.5 (-110)

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

LIBERTY

  • None

LYNX

  • None

2024 WNBA Finals Head-to-Head Stats: Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty

Game 1: Lynx 95, Liberty 93 OT (Minnesota +6, over 160.5)
Game 2: Liberty 80, Lynx 66 (New York -7.5, under 162.5)

WNBA Finals Bests Bets:  New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx For Wednesday, October 16

WNBA Finals Spread Bet: New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty -2.5 (-112)

My best bet of today, I placed one unit on the New York Liberty to cover the -2.5 point spread vs the Lynx for -112 odds on DraftKings. While in attendance for game 3, it was the largest crowd the Liberty has drawn at the Barclays center, tallying 18,041 fans. With that said,  I felt nervous energy through the building, and there was a good reason for that. Commanding a 49-39 halftime lead, the Liberty once again didn't have a stellar end on the offense end.

And similar to game 1, we saw the Lynx chip away at the lead. Having blown a 17 point lead for the second consecutive game, Minnesota came within two points. You may be wondering why did I bet on the Liberty to cover today when all they've done is give up colossal leads in the finals.

Giving up a 17 point lead two times is nothing to sniff at. However, the Liberty overcame the challenge of maintaining their lead throughout the entire game. If you're an WNBA fan or bettor, the Lynx are an elite team, as we saw in game 1. While it's not easy to contain Courtney Williams and Napheesa Collier, New York found a way. That's in large part to Sabrina Ionescu, who played some of the most spectacular defense in her career.

Speaking of Ionescu, the Liberty star was off to a blazing start, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. Mind you, arguably the Liberty's top scorer was held to just one lone second half point.

The Liberty Have The  Size, Length, And Versatility Advantage

Read that again, the Liberty pulled ahead in the second half, and their top scorer was held to one field goal attempt. Combine that with the emergence of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. Although still not 100 percent, the Liberty have a strong starting five, where any player can take over at any given moment. Heck, we even saw that with rookie Leonie Fiebich, who scored 17 points on a record five treys in game 1. While the series is split, New York has the overall size and length advantage, and that includes versatility in their starting five and bench.

While turnovers remain an issue for both teams, the Liberty were able to out rebound the Lynx, and were successful on the fast break and second chance points. With decent percentages from the floor (47.5 %) and three-point line (45.8 %), New York was more aggressive in getting to the charity stripe. An all around collaborative effort on the offensive end, Laney-Hamilton, Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Ionescu all tallied points in double-digits.

With the bench giving coach Brondello seven points, the offensive boards were key for New York. As we've seen time and time again, Jones, Stewart, and Fiebich were able to clean up after a missed bucket. If the Liberty are able to shoot that well and dominate the second chance points, I see them easily covering the spread. However, we know that task won't be "easy."

Is The Liberty's Defense Strong Enough To Win It All?

And the answer to that is absolutely yes.

Heading into game 3, the Liberty know the Lynx tendencies and vice versa. If they turn the ball over and miss shots, the Lynx excel in transition and setting up their offense quickly. As we saw in game 2, it was the strength of New York's defense that stood out to me. In what is my best bet of today, the Liberty didn't allow the Lynx to score more than 27 second half points, and limited them to 14 and 13 points in the final two quarters. What a complete difference this was from game 1, and New York's defense will be the selling point when it comes to my prediction.

The key for New York was pushing Napheesa Collier into foul trouble, and with that, finding ways to capitalize when she wasn't in the game. Able to keep their composure down the stretch, the Liberty forced a total of 20 turnovers, which was an insane amount. Controlling the pace, the Liberty held Minnesota to 11-28 (39.3 %) from the floor, and 1-9 (11.1 %) from beyond the arc. Although the Lynx missed a few open shots, limiting Kayla McBride Courtney Williams to 1-4 from deep was huge.

"You want to steal one on the road,"  said Collier post game.  "We're really disappointed in how we played today. I'm excited to go home, play in front of our crowd, and we have to respond. We have to come out playing better than we did in these two games. We're both competing for a championship."

From the words of Napheesa Collier, can the Lynx withstand the Liberty defense? After last game, I would say no.

As for game 3, Collier will still get her points. However, expect Stewart continue to make her life difficult and force tough shots. I wouldn't be surprised of Laney-Hamilton and Fiebich rotate guarding Williams today.

Role Players Matter In The WNBA Finals

Overall, New York showed why they can not only cover the large point spread, but win straight up. Turning defense into offense, Liberty went on a 13-4 run down the stretch, in which the Lynx missed several shots. By placing Laney-Hamilton on Williams, the Lynx guard shot just 2-5 in the final quarter. While the Lynx have several snipers, New York contained them, and that's what championship caliber teams do.

One aspect the Lynx haven't quite learned is the double team of one player often opens up an opportunity for the Liberty. Mentioned in previous articles, this Liberty team is extremely difficult to guard on both the weak and strong side of the ball. Instances where Ionescu was doubled, Laney-Hamilton stepped up. Aggressive down the stretch, New York will need Jonquel Jones to utilize her size and bully in the paint. In tight games, the biggest starts will run into double coverage, and it's up to the role players to step up. In this case, I do believe New York has the edge in that sense.

Final WNBA Finals game 3 best bet and prediction: New York Liberty -2.5 (-112 DraftKings)

Overall, I saw a version of the New York Liberty that we saw all season long. Creating defensive stops and turning them into offense was the key to this game. As we head into game 3, I have the Liberty covering the spread as my best bet. As I continue to believe the point spread margin with expand, this is a Liberty team that's held the majority lead in both games other than five minutes. It's vital this team starts off strong yet again, as winning on the road won't be easy.

15-5 ATS on the road, the Liberty haven shown they can cover and win on the road. Securing the game four win over the Aces in the semi-finals, New York was able to cover  the +3 point underdog spread. Sure, Minnesota covered in 3/4 games this season, including a 84-67 home victory on May 24.

However, the Liberty have an efficient, 4-3-1  ATS record throughout the playoffs. New York showed once again how dominant their defense can be, and how resilient this squad is through physical play. Sabrina Ionescu has yet to have a break out game, and they've managed to take game 2.

Outscoring the Lynx by +12 points through two Finals games, I'll lay the points with the New York Liberty as my best bet for today.

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