WNBA Finals Predictions Today: Liberty vs Lynx WNBA Playoff Game 4 Best Bets and Odds on October 18

What an exciting WNBA Finals it's been! Tonight, we have a highly awaited game 4 matchup between the New York Liberty (32-8, 16-4 away)  and the Minnesota Lynx (30-10, 16-4 home). If you didn't get a chance to watch Game 3 or SportsCenter, it was certainly one for the books.

One of the most clutch, monumental shots in WNBA history, Sabrina Ionescu hit a 28-foot step-back three-pointer with one second left to put the Liberty ahead, 80-77.

 (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

With game 4 slated for tonight, New York has the opportunity to capture their first WNBA Championship in franchise history. 2.5 point spread underdogs at home, can the Lynx pull it off and force a game 5 in New York?

Out of all the WNBA Finals I've watched over the years, this has been one of the most exciting, yet physical matchups. With that said, we witnessed the Liberty blow 17 point leads in games 1 and 2, and now Minnesota with the 15 point lead in game 3. Through it all, the Liberty have remained the favorites, whether home or away.

When I mean physical, Lynx forward Alanna Smith suffered a back injury, yet was hobbling for a chunk of game time. Visibly upset on the Lynx bench, it is unclear whether Smith can give it a go for game 4. If so, she's undeniably the crucial x-factor to the front court defense aside from Napheesa Collier.

Odds Are Current As Of October 18 AT 8 A.M. ET

In this article, I will discuss my best bets, which will include a mix of player prop plays, and spread bet predictions. With their backs against the wall, this is a must win game for the Lynx. With the Liberty and Lynx shattering WNBA Finals records with the largest comebacks in games 1 and 4, will tonight's game continue on that trajectory?

Looking to cash in and stay in the green, I have a WNBA betting record of 192-157 this season. If you're planning to tail my best bets today, I've placed all of my plays within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks.

With the WNBA Finals on the line, today's matchup is set to tip-off at 8 p.m. ET in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Airing on ESPN, this year's WNBA Finals between the Liberty and Lynx have shattered previous viewership records.

Let's take a look in today's game 4 matchup between the Liberty and Lynx, where I will provide my best bets and predictions for Friday, October 18.

Are you looking to bet on the WNBA Finals game 4 between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

WNBA Finals Game 4: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx DraftKings Odds For October 18

MONEYLINE

• NEW YORK LIBERTY: -148
• MINNESOTA LYNX: +124

SPREAD

• NEW YORK LIBERTY: -3 (-110)
• MINNESOTA LYNX: +3 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 159.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 159.5 (-110)

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

LIBERTY

• None

LYNX

• None

2024 WNBA Finals Head-to-Head Stats: Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty

• Game 1: Lynx 95, Liberty 93 OT (Minnesota +6, over 160.5
• Game 2: Liberty 80, Lynx 66 (New York -7.5, under 162.5)
• Game 3: Liberty 80, Lynx 77 (New York -2.5, under 160.5)

WNBA Finals Bests Bets:  New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx For Friday, October 18

WNBA Finals Spread Bet: Minnesota Lynx

• Minnesota Lynx +3 (-110 DraftKings)

My best bet for tonight, I'm taking the Minnesota Lynx to cover the +3 point spread as underdogs vs the New York Liberty. I will say, this has been an incredibly difficult WNBA Finals to bet on, especially with several blown leads. However, the Lynx have their backs against the wall today in a must win situation.

The Lynx have been here before, as we saw with their 95-93 overtime game 1 victory over the Liberty. Considered one of the largest comebacks in WNBA Finals history, bettors witnessed the Lynx chip away at an 18 point deficit. In that game, we've seen Kayla McBride, Napheesa Collier, and Courtney Williams provide a bulk of the offense for the Lynx. And in crunch time, bettors are aware of how Williams can perform in overtime.

The Lynx Were Tied For An WNBA Best Home Record of 16-4 With The Liberty

On paper, one might think the Liberty have the more superior team, which may be true. However, in what was considered a rebuilding year for head coach Cheryl Reeve, the Lynx have shown why they are the best of the best. Aside from game 2, this series has been decided in three points or less. With that said, I'm laying the points with the Lynx tonight, who were 11-3 ATS as home underdogs this season. While they failed to cover the +2.5 game 3 spread, the Lynx defeated the Liberty 84-67, and covered the +7 point spread in their lone regular season home game.

While hosting the Liberty just once in the last six head-to-head matchups, the Lynx now get a chance to play in front of their home fans at the Target Center. Tied with the Liberty for the best home record in the regular season (16-4), Minnesota was stellar in several categories. On their home court, the Lynx led the WNBA in three-point percentage (37.5 %), assists (22.2), and steals (9.3).

The Lynx Continue To Force Liberty Turnovers

In game 3, we saw the Lynx aggressive early on, commanding a 28-18 lead after the first quarter. As I previously mentioned on ESPN Las Vegas Radio, the Liberty have been known to turn the ball over, and that's exactly what they did on Wednesday. Forcing 18 turnovers, it was the Lynx who were able to capitalize on 18 points. Although Ionescu hit the game winning dagger, it was Breanna Stewart who led the way for New York.

Finishing with her first 30 bomb of the season, if it hadn't been for Stewie, would the Liberty have come back? Most likely not. Scoring 22 second-half points, Stewart simply couldn't be tamed. The Lynx must perform better defensively against Stewart tonight. After all, Napheesa Collier was named Defensive Player of the Year for a reason. Holding to Stewart to under 40 percent from the field through the first two games, Stewart finished just 6-21 in game 1. Minnesota will need that intensity of defense, especially from Collier today.

Why Alanna Smith's Injury Hurt The Lynx Chances In Game 3

If you're watching and betting on the WNBA Finals, we simply can't forget the Lynx had a five point lead with less than three minutes remaining in the final quarter. And much to my point about Smith, she wasn't healthy on the floor. Grimacing in pain, Smith totaled a low six second half minutes, and was mainly replaced by Myisha Hines-Allen. According to WNBA journalist Noa Dalzell, Smith is moving normal at practice this morning. Without Smith's presence on the court, it shaped the way New York could defend and run their offense. While Hines-Allen was an incredible mid-season pickup for the Lynx, Smith is a more efficient shooter from downtown, and her defense is unwavering.

With that said, I do believe the injury to Smith didn't help in stopping Stewart. While coach Reeve placed Smith back on the court in the final six minutes, Smith was unable to play late in the stretch. I firmly believe Jones had an easier time finding the basket through the pick and rolls. All in all, the Lynx mainly kept a lead well until a minute to go in the fourth quarter. With the Liberty shattering their dreams, Ionescu not only hit a three over Napheesa Collier on the switch with 55 seconds remaining, she hit the step back winner.

Final WNBA Finals game 3 best bet and prediction: Minnesota Lynx +3 (-110 DraftKings)

The key to game 4 will be containing Ionescu, especially in late game situations. As we saw in game 2, Minnesota limited the Liberty star to just one second half point. One of the the worst rebounding teams in the WNBA playoffs, it was a pleasant surprise to see the Lynx hang with the Liberty on the glass, as well as the second chance points on Wednesday. Sure the Liberty have the size and length advantage of the Lynx, and even have a +9.5 lead over Minnesota on the boards. While the Liberty are expected to win the WNBA Finals at -950 odds, don't expect the Lynx to fade away quickly.

Overall, we saw a record of over 19,000 fans pour in for support behind the Lynx in game 3. With that said, we saw McBride, Williams, and Collier combine for 53 points. With McBride hitting five trey balls, the Lynx will need the three of them to step up once again. 53 points is a substantial amount, however I expect Williams to shoot more efficient than 4-14 (29 %) from the field.

One of the most decorated coaches in WNBA history, Cheryl Reeve is championship coach. Overall, she led this team to not only a Commissioner's Cup Title over the Liberty, but the no.2 overall seed. The Liberty shot 40 percent from the three-point line, and well over 45 percent from the field last matchup. Is this sustainable, especially against an elite Lynx defense? The answer is simply no. The Lynx haven't dropped three straight games all season, and I'm backing the team who have the home court advantage and remained in control for a majority of last game. Lay the points with the Lynx in a must win or go home situation today.

WNBA Finals Player Prop Bet #1: Napheesa Collier

Napheesa Collier Playoff Stats

PPG: 24.9 | FG: 53.8 % | FT: 86.2 % | 3PT : 43.5 % | REB: 9.1 | AST: 3.4 | STL: 2.0 | BLK: 2.1

• Over 20.5 points (-118 FanDuel)

My first player prop bet, I placed coin on Napheesa Collier to score over 20.5 points tonight vs the Liberty for -118 odds on FanDuel. Minnesota's biggest star on both ends of the court, this is a no brainer. While the prop line is much lower than her playoff points average, Collier has been the most consistent scorer for the Lynx. Scoring over 21 points in two WNBA Finals games against the Liberty, she'll get another matchup against Breanna Stewart.

As mentioned previously, today is an elimination game, and I can't think of any player other than Collier and Stewart to bet on. Although Collier was held to just 12 field goal attempts in game 2, the former UConn Husky is coming off a 22 point performance in Wednesday's loss. With 22 field goal attempts, not only is Collier the Lynx top scoring option, the forward has averaged over 38 minutes in the playoffs. After playing 43 minutes in game 1, and 40 in game 3, it's safe to say Collier won't be coming off the court today.

Given the Lynx have played at a much faster pace than the regular season, there will be plenty of shot attempts for Collier. If you watch the WNBA, the Lynx star often excels in transition, scoring off turnovers from New York. Then again, when I think of Collier, she hits those tough mid range shots. Out of all the players in the WNBA, Collier isn't one to back down from a challenge, and is not afraid to take hard shots. Only 6'1, the Lynx star thrives in those moments.

Final WNBA Finals game 3 best bet and prediction: Napheesa Collier over 20.5 points (-118 FanDuel)

When it comes to my best player prop plays, this is a strong play tonight for several reasons. Averaging 16.7 field goal attempts over the first three WNBA Finals matchups, Collier is shooting an efficient 53.8 percent from the field, and has been spectacular beyond the arc (43.5 %). While Collier will continue to see limited looks from downtown, Collier shot over 60 percent from the field in the first two games.

Today isn't an ordinary game. The biggest stars shine in the brightest moments, and the Lynx will need Collier to dominate in order to stay alive. Clutch down the stretch in game 1, I doubt Collier will be limited to 40 percent from the field. Look for the Lynx star to put up the fadeaway shots, and take advantage when their are rare mismatches. If you're placing prop bets on the WNBA, Collier has soared over this prop line in four of the last five games. Expect a bounce back game and all-in effort.

WNBA Finals Player Prop Bet #2: Breanna Stewart

Breanna Stewart Playoff Stats

PPG: 21.0 | FG: 41.1 % | FT: 84.3 % | 3PT : 30.8 % | REB: 8.7 | AST: 3.6 | STL: 1.3 | BLK: 1.7

• Over 9.5 rebounds (-136 FanDuel)

My second player prop of today, I bet on Breanna Stewart to record over 9.5 rebounds for -136 odds on FanDuel. As we know, Stewart is the heart and soul of this Liberty team, and why they are such a menace on the boards. With the Liberty +9.5 on the boards vs the Lynx this series, Stewart should have another decent night. One win away from capturing a WNBA Championship, expect Stewart to give it her all.

Likely to match up with Napheesa Collier, Stewart has the clear cut size advantage. Coming off 11 rebounds in game 3, Stewart has a total of 29 rebounds over the last three games. With 14 boards in game, and brilliant in the finals, the Liberty are inches away from winning it all. I especially love this prop, if Alanna Smith isn't 100 percent. While Smith may suit up for tonight's game, her injury may impact the way Minnesota can rebound, which has already been a concern.

Final WNBA Finals game 3 best bet and prediction: Breanna Stewart O 9.5 rebounds (-136 FanDuel)

Overall, the Liberty have dominated the Lynx on the boards, and you can thank their size, versatility, and length advantage. Even with Leonie Fiebich and Jonquel Jones in the starting lineup, Stewart has been able defeat Collier on the glass a majority of the series.

Hitting the over in just one game in the WNBA Finals, Stewart has been hovering around 9.0 rebounds through games 1 and 2. Although the Lynx owned the Liberty 2-1 in the regular season, Stewart was monstrous on the boards. Recording 18,17, 11 rebounds, that's an average of 15.3 rpg. With 12 offensive boards vs the Lynx this season,

Stewart has been main factor why the Liberty are so dominant on the offensive boards. Of Stewart's 11 rebounds last matchup, three of them alone game on the offensive end. With +175 odds to finish as the rebound leader tonight, I'm taking this prop as well.  Expect Stewie to keep taking advantage of the Lynx on the glass in game 4.