WNBA Free Picks: Aces vs Liberty Game 3 Spreads and Best Bets on October 4

Reigning champions Las Vegas Aces aim to keep their titular hopes alive as they take on arch rivals New York Liberty in Game 3 of their best-of-five WNBA semifinals series this Friday in front of its adoring fans at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

(Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)

After losing Game 1 by double digits, the Aces were in striking distance in Game 2 and were able to tie the game at 81 apiece with 1:31 to go but a crucial turnover by Chelsea Gray and clutch free throws from Breanna Stewart proved to be the nail in the coffin for Las Vegas.

• Las Vegas hasn’t won a game against New York this season but bookmakers currently have them as 2.5-point favorites heading into Game 3.
• The Liberty came in as 3.5-point favorites in Game 2 and barely covered the spread thanks to forward Breanna Stewart who made two pressure-packed free throws with five seconds to go.
• It is, however, worth noting that even though the Aces failed to win a single game against the Liberty this season, they were able to cover the spread in their final regular season matchup.

With Las Vegas fighting for its lives and New York eyeing a second straight trip to the finals, expect both teams to fight neck-and-neck in what could be another thrilling affair. As of press time, here’s how the current Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty betting lines look.

Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty DraftKings WNBA Odds for October 4

Moneyline

• Las Vegas Aces: -142
• New York Liberty: +120

Spread

• Las Vegas Aces:  -2.5 (-110)
• New York Liberty: +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 166 (-110)
• UNDER 166 (-110)

Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty Injury Report

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

1. Kiah Stokes - Day-to-Day

New York Liberty Injury Report

• No Injuries

Best WNBA odds for Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty

• The New York Liberty is among the best Against-The-Spread (ATS) road teams in the league, sporting a 15-5 card. The best New York Liberty odds to cover the +2.5 spread are available on DraftKings at -110.
• The Las Vegas Aces have covered the spread in their past two playoff home games. FanDuel offers the best odds for the Aces to cover the -2.5 spread at -110.
• The over hit in three of the past five encounters between the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty. FanDuel has the best price for the over at -110.

Why will the Las Vegas Aces cover the spread?

Had it not been for a terrible pass by guard Chelsea Gray, the Las Vegas Aces would’ve found themselves in a better position of possibly tying the series.

Down by as many as eight points in the fourth, the Aces went on a 15-7 barrage to even the score at 81 apiece with under two minutes to go.

Las Vegas had a crack at tying or possibly winning the game but a careless pass from Gray doomed their hopes of doing so.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Aces as they have a few positives to look back from Game 2 but perhaps the most significant is their perimeter defense.

• After allowing the New York Liberty to shoot over 40% from three in Game 1, Las Vegas was able to close out on their opponents’ shooters by forcing them to only make 31% of their three-point shots in Game 2.
• If that’s not impressive enough, Las Vegas also shot nearly 45% from three in Game 2, which is a massive improvement from its dismal 28% three-point shooting percentage in Game 1.
• Five Aces players hit the twin-digit mark in Game 2 as well led by three-time league Most Valuable Player A’ja Wilson, who had 24 points, seven rebounds, and four assists on 11-out-of-18 shooting from the field.

Aces Need Plum to Step Up for a Chance to Cover the -2.5 Spread

Guard Kelsey Plum, however, was non-existent in Game 2 as she not only committed three turnovers but was held to six points. For Vegas to cover the -2.5 spread here, they need the 30-year old Plum to get going early.

• When the Aces covered the spread against the Liberty this season, Plum had 25 points, six assists, and three rebounds while shooting 50% from the three-point area and 41.2% from the field.

With their backs against the wall and the Aces playing at home, there could be potential value in backing them to cover the -2.5 spread here. It is worth noting that Wilson and company haven’t lost a home game since August.

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Why will the New York Liberty cover the spread?

Crucial defensive stops and clutch free throws from Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart powered the New York Liberty to an 88-84 Game 2 victory over the Las Vegas Aces on Tuesday.

With how they’ve handily beaten the Aces this season, an unprecedented sweep of the defending champions could be in the cards for the Liberty here.

• New York is opening as a 2.5-point underdog in Game 3 as per early New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces odds and one could argue that it should be the other way around.
• For context, the Liberty have beaten the Aces by an average margin of 6.6 points in all of their five matchups this season.
• What’s even more impressive was the fact that the Liberty beat the Aces 79-67 in their lone visit to Sin City this year.

Liberty’s Three-Point Shooting Key to Covering the Spread and Reaching the Finals

One thing that the Liberty have to address here to cover the spread and potentially clinch their second consecutive finals appearance is their three-point shooting percentage.

In Game 2, New York found themselves settling for outside shots more, especially in the fourth where they only made one of their seven shots from the three-point area.

Should the Liberty make the necessary adjustments and continue to dominate the boards as they did in Game 2, then backing them to cover and possibly win could offer a great value here.

Final Aces vs Liberty WNBA Prediction: New York Liberty ML +120

Moments after Game 2, I had a premonition that the New York Liberty will head into Game 3 as the heavy favorites. But to my surprise, bookmakers see the Las Vegas Aces living to fight another day and forcing a Game 4.

While the Aces will certainly not go down without a fight, the odds on the Liberty to win and notch its second consecutive finals appearance are just too juicy to pass up. Give me the Liberty to win outright.

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