WNBA Free Picks: Mercury vs Lynx Spreads and Best Bets on August 28

(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

The Phoenix Mercury look to bounce back quickly from their defeat against the New York Liberty, while the Minnesota Lynx seek their seventh consecutive victory as both teams collide this Wednesday, August 28, 2024, inside the Footprint Center.

• Phoenix found itself on the back of an 84-70 beatdown against the Liberty to start a five-game homestand.
• The Mercury actually kept the game close until New York unleashed a 10-0 run midway in the fourth to pull away.
• All-Star center Brittney Griner had 22 points to lead the Mercury but committed seven of the team’s 20 turnovers.

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Griner and the rest of the Mercury hope to turn things around quickly as they battle a streaking Lynx team, which has won their past six games thanks to an impressive showing by All-Star forward Napheesa Collier.

• Since her return two weeks ago, the 27-year-old Collier has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 25.6 points and 9.2 rebounds while shooting 65.5% from the field.

Minnesota and Phoenix have met three times this season, with the former winning twice.

Can the Mercury tie the season series and get back to the win column, or will the Lynx continue their dominance and winning momentum?

As of press time, the current Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx betting lines suggest a dominant win for the road team, but let’s see if those odds are justified.

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx FanDuel WNBA Odds for August 28

Moneyline

• Phoenix Mercury: +138
• Minnesota Lynx: -170

Spread

• Phoenix Mercury: +3.5 (-110)
• Minnesota Lynx: -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 162.5 (-110)
• UNDER 162.5 (-110)

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

1. Rebecca Allen – Hamstring – Out
2. Charisma Osborne – Leg – Day-to-Day

Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

• No Injuries

Best Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

• The Phoenix Mercury won the last time they played the Minnesota Lynx at home. Bwin offers the best Phoenix Mercury odds to win outright at +145.
• The Minnesota Lynx have covered in four of their five previous wins against the Phoenix Mercury. The best Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx odds for the road team to cover are available on FanDuel at -110.
• The under hit in five of the last six encounters between the Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx. FanDuel offers the best odds for the under 162.5 total at -110.

Why will the Phoenix Mercury cover the spread?

Revenge will be in the mind of the Phoenix Mercury when they battle the red-hot Minnesota Lynx.

• It can be recalled that the Lynx blew past the Mercury 84-70 in their most recent encounter to take the season series lead.
• Oddsmakers have the Mercury as 3.5-point underdogs heading into this matchup, largely due to their previous performances against the Lynx.

It is, however, worth noting that those two losses against the Lynx were on the road.

1. When the Mercury played the Lynx at home, they came out on top 81-80 thanks to a late three-pointer from Kahleah Copper.
2. The 29-year-old Copper finished that game with 34 points and six rebounds while shooting 13-for-23 from the field.
3. What’s even more impressive was that All-Star center Brittney Griner was basically a non-factor in that game, only playing for 21 minutes as she was still recovering from a toe injury.

With Griner healthy as ever, Phoenix now has enough firepower to cover the spread and pull off an upset. The Mercury has rarely disappointed in front of its home fans, covering in nine of its 15 home games.

• However, to do so in this game, they will need to reduce their turnovers; Phoenix gave the ball away 20 times against the New York Liberty, which is something you cannot do against a well-oiled Lynx offensive squad.

Copper will also need to step her game up here to give the Mercury a chance of playing spoiler to Minnesota’s hot run.

• Against the Liberty, Copper was only limited to 14 points, and the worst part was she also shot 0-for-6 from the three-point range.

Good thing for Phoenix, though, is that Copper has the resilience to bounce back in a big way after a bad game. A case in point was when she was limited to seven points against the Chicago Sky and responded with three consecutive double-digit games.

Why will the Minnesota Lynx cover the spread?

The Minnesota Lynx are currently the hottest team in the league.

• After dropping back-to-back games to the Seattle Storm and the Indiana Fever last month, the Lynx has seemingly found its winning groove back thanks to the return of its franchise player Napheesa Collier.
• Since Collier’s return, the Lynx have been beating teams by an average margin of 12.2 points.

Surprisingly, the Lynx only head into this game as 3.5-point favorites, which is extremely generous considering the manner they beat their opponents in their previous games.

• Although Minnesota lost the last time they played Phoenix, it is worth noting that the game could’ve gone either way, and if not for the tightly-contested three-point make by Kahleah Copper, the outcome would’ve been entirely different.
• One thing the Lynx will need to be wary of in this game is Copper, who is hard to stop when she gets her shot going.

Ideally, for the Lynx to cover the spread, they will most likely need to double-team Copper multiple times in this game and force her to take bad shots.

1. In their 73-60 victory over the Mercury last June, they were successful in doing that as they limited the All-Star guard to just nine points on 3-for-17 shooting.
2. Besides Copper, Minnesota should also put a body on Griner, who, like Copper, is tough to contain when she has her way down low.

A positive thing for the Lynx in this game is their impressive ATS record away from the Target Center.

• Across 14 road games this season, Minnesota holds an impressive 10-4 record, which is tied with the New York Liberty for the best in the league as far as ATS away slates are concerned.

Taking everything into account, backing the Lynx to cover the -3.5 spread at these current odds is especially attractive, considering how they looked in the past few games.

Final Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction: Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-110)

No disrespect to the Phoenix Mercury but the line should be wider. The Minnesota Lynx are flying and seemingly unbeatable at this point. Minnesota should easily cover here.