WNBA Free Picks: Sparks vs Mercury Spreads and Best Bets on September 17

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Los Angeles Sparks hope to end their season on a strong note as they take on the playoff-bound Phoenix Mercury, this Tuesday, September 17, 2024 inside Crypto.com Arena.

Los Angeles heads into this game following a 90-87 loss to the Seattle Storm for its seventh consecutive defeat. Phoenix, meanwhile, snapped its three-game losing skid with a 93-88 victory over the Chicago Sky on Sunday.

• Phoenix and Los Angeles have met thrice this season. The Mercury won all three meetings by an average margin of 13 points.
• Los Angeles opened as a 4.5-point underdog here but the line has closed to +3.5 as of press time. A lot of that has to do with their performance in their previous game against the Storm where they came in as nine-point dogs but only lost by three.
• Both teams are horrible as far as Against-The-Spread (ATS) records are concerned. The Mercury are 18-18-1 ATS while the Sparks are 17-19-1 ATS.

With Los Angeles no longer playing for anything and Phoenix already bound for the playoffs, this game could mean nothing to both.

But that does not mean, there are no betting spots here – actually there are a few you might like in this Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury sports prediction piece.

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury DraftKings WNBA Odds for September 17

Moneyline

• Los Angeles Sparks: +142
• Phoenix Mercury: -170

Spread

• Los Angeles Sparks: +3.5 (-110)
• Phoenix Mercury: -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 162.5 (-110)
• UNDER 162.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

Los Angeles Sparks Injury Report 

1. Aari McDonald – Ankle – Out
2. Layshia Clarendon – Personal – Day-to-Day
3. Lexie Brown – Illness – Out
4. Cameron Brink – Out for the Season

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

1. Kahleah Copper – Back – Doubtful
2. Charisma Osborne – Lower Leg – Out
3. Rebecca Allen – Hamstring – Out

Best WNBA odds for Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

• The Los Angeles Sparks have won two of their previous five meetings with the Phoenix Mercury. The best Los Angeles Sparks odds to win outright are available on DraftKings at +142
• The Phoenix Mercury beat the Los Angeles Sparks by an average margin of 13 points in their three meetings this season. LeoVegS offers the best odds for the Mercury to dismantle the Sparks by four points or more at -104.
• Two of the three meetings between the Los Angeles Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury this season hit the over. The best Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury odds for the over are available on DraftKings at -110.

Why will the Los Angeles Sparks cover the spread?

Losers of 14 of their last 15 outings, the Los Angeles Sparks have yet to win a game in September. They came close against the Seattle Storm on Sunday though. Now, they take on a short-handed Phoenix Mercury who will be without some key players.

• Doubtful in this game is Mercury spitfire guard Kahleah Copper who has been averaging 20.3 points against the Sparks in three games this season. The 30-year old Copper has missed the past two games due to a back injury.
• Another good thing for the Sparks is the resurgence of forward Dearica Hamby, who has been struggling in September, averaging just 11.7 points.

The 30-year-old frontwoman out of Wake Forest finally got out of a funk with a 25-point and 11-rebound double-double effort against the Storm.

It is also worth noting that the Mercury are 8-9-1 ATS on the road. If that’s not bad enough, they have failed to cover the spread in the past three games.

One thing Los Angeles needs to do here is to play pressure defense and force Phoenix to commit turnovers.

• They were successful in doing that last time, forcing the Mercury to turn the ball over 24 times.

With the Sparks playing its final home game of the season, they should enter this game with an added motivation knowing that this will be last time they play in front of their adoring fans.

That being said, with Copper still doubtful in this game, there could be potential value in backing Los Angeles to cover the +3.5 spread at these current odds.

Why will the Phoenix Mercury cover the spread?

Inconsistency has marred the Phoenix Mercury season but for better or for worse, they are through to the playoffs. Now, the Mercury take on a Los Angeles Sparks team that they have beaten three times this year.

• The Mercury closed as 3.5-point favorites and that could be because of the injury to leading scorer Kahleah Copper.

However, it’s worth noting that Copper only led in scoring once in their three victories against the Sparks this season.

• In their first meeting of the season with the Sparks, it was future Hall of Famer Diana Taurasi that took the scoring cudgels, registering 31 points while crafty guard Natasha Cloud led the scoring in their last matchup with 31 markers.
• It is also worth noting that in their first meeting where the Mercury just flat out dominated the Sparks 87-68, Copper was only held to 12 points.

Put simply, had Copper even failed to score, Phoenix would’ve still won the match by double digits.

Taking care of the ball is something that the Mercury needs to prioritize here, especially since they’ve turned the ball over 24 times in their previous matchup with the Sparks.

• Had it not for the 24 turnovers in their previous matchup, the Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury betting lines here could’ve been wider.

Balanced scoring powered the Mercury against a tough Chicago Sky team last Sunday and should that happen again here, backing Phoenix to cover the -3.5 spread at these current odds is not even up for discussion.

It is worth recalling that the Sparks have only managed to cover six of their 19 home games this year.

Final Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks ML +142

The Los Angeles Sparks have been flat out terrible this season. But if there is one thing you can count on for the Sparks to deliver, it’s their ability to provide a good show for the fans.

With the Sparks playing in their final home game of the year and the Phoenix Mercury likely missing its leading scorer Kahleah Copper, I am going on a flier and putting my money on the dog here to win outright.