Key Points
- New York Liberty are 2.5 point spread favorites heading into the matchup
- Liberty are 9-1 in the last 10 matchups vs. the Sun
- Included below are the top player prop bets with the best values
It's Wednesday, and there is an early matchup between the New York Liberty (17-4, 7-3 away) and the Connecticut Sun (17-4, 9-2 home).
A highly anticipated "camp day" matchup, the Connecticut will seek to even up the season series with New York. With both teams off to a franchise best 17-4 record, the Liberty find themselves as 2.5 point spread favorites on the road.
(Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New York Liberty Vs Connecticut Sun PREDICTIONS: WNBA TEAM ANALYSIS
Off to a scorching start, the Sun are riding a three game win streak against the Indiana Fever, Minnesota Lynx, and Atlanta Dream. 7-3 in their last ten outings, Connecticut remains one of the most prolific defenses in the WNBA.
Second in defensive rating, Connecticut is a top of the standings, allowing an abysmal 72.8 points per game. 4-6 against the spread, the Sun have struggled to cover substantial spreads, especially any spread margin over 10 and above.
For this reason, I veered away from the spread.
- Winners in 7 of their last 10 matchups, the Liberty are coming off a rare 83-78 defeat against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever.
- With their offense completely flat, New York struggled shooting the rock, shooting 40.8 percent from the field, and 23.8 percent from downtown.
Massacred on the boards, New York simply couldn't keep up with Aliyah Boston and company inside the paint. Overall, they lead the WNBA in net rating, and clinched victories in 13 of their last 16 games, including 71 percent of their last five games on the road.
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Two of most elite teams in the league, this is certainly a revenge game for Stephanie White and the Sun, who've dropped five straight against the Liberty, dating back to last year's postseason.
- Swept 4-0 in the 2023 regular season, Connecticut finds themselves +130 money line underdogs at home. With significant time off for both teams, this is my matchup of the day.
ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF JULY 10 AT 7 A.M. ET.
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If you're inclined to bet on some WNBA action tonight, tip-off for both matchups will begin at 11 a.m. ET and will air on WNBA League Pass.
- I've collected the best odds from a multitude of legal sportsbooks. In anticipation of tonight's matchup, I've compiled all the statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop bets for July 10.
It's worth to note, all of my bets for the WNBA have been placed at FanDuel Sportsbook. In this article, I will include a list of WNBA Player Prop bets, odds, and best analysis.
WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #1: ALYSSA THOMAS
ALYSSA THOMAS SEASON STATS
PPG: 11.9 | FG: 50.5 % | FT: 67 % | REB: 9.4 | AST: 7.9 | STL: 1.6 | BLK: 0.5
- O 7.5 Assists (-106 FanDuel)
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If there's one prop I love for today's game, it's
Alyssa Thomas
to dish out over 7.5 assists against the New York Liberty.
- The main catalyst for the Sun's offense, Thomas leads the WNBA in assists with 7.9 per game.
- At -106 I love this value, especially since the Sun forward averages over 7.5 dimes per game, and I do believe a prop at nearly plus money is too good to pass up.
Hitting well over this prop in six of the last seven games against New York, I expect Thomas to be the primary facilitator today.
Some will argue the addition of Veronica Burton, and increased playing time can affect this prop, and that's something to keep an eye out for. A main staple off the bench for Stephanie White, Burton's been averaging 2.2 assists per game over an average of 11.7 minutes.
Overall, this prop has a 60 percent hit rate over the last five games, and Thomas has a combined 23 assists over the last two matchups between the Minnesota Lynx and the Atlanta Dream.
- Averaging 7.3 assists over the last 10 games, Thomas has struggled to score against the Liberty, only putting up 10 points in their last matchup.
- Facilitating 10.4 assists over the last 7 games against New York, the forward now faces a New York team that allows the 4th least assists in the WNBA.
However, the Liberty has struggled as of late against backcourt players and assists.
THIS WNBA PROP HAS GREAT VALUE AT -106 ODDS
Over the last few games, Caitlin Clark tallied 13 assists on July 6. Prior to that, Jordin Canada, of the Dream, dished out 9 dimes, and Courtney Williams with 8 assists in the Commissioners Cup Championship.
- Specifically over the last seven games, the Liberty are allowing 20.6 assists per game, which ranks 5th in the league.
- Given New York allows the 5th most assists to forwards in the league, I'm confident in this prop.
And yes, Alyssa Thomas is one of the most prolific point forwards in the game.
Another reason why I love this prop is that Alyssa Thomas had nine assists in a mere 25 minutes against Atlanta last matchup.
- Although Thomas is averaging 34.1 minutes per game, she's been playing heavy minutes, especially over the last seven games.
And that's who Thomas is, she's built with endurance to last through 40 minutes of competitive game play. Clocking 40 minutes against New York last matchup, I would imagine Thomas will average around the same amount of minutes. When she does, this prop has a over hit rate of 50 percent.
WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #2: JONQUEL JONES
JONQUEL JONES SEASON STATS
PPG: 16 | FG: 58.3 % | FT: 76.8 % | 3PT %: 42.2 | REB: 8.9 | AST: 3.3 | STL: 0.7 | BLK: 1.1
- To record a double-double (+125 Fanduel)
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Although this prop is slightly more risky, I love it for the value of +125. Placing only 1 unit on this play, it's time for the Liberty to play through Jonquel Jones.
- Despite a 21 point performance against Minnesota, Jones is averaging 8.8 points and 1o rebounds over the last four games.
In the frontcourt, yes Jones has a healthy Brionna Jones on the other side. However, Jones is much stronger and taller. With double digit rebounds in six of the last eight games against Connecticut, it's worth to note the Liberty forward has tallied points in double figures in all but one matchup against the Sun over the last eight meetings.
- No. 8 in the league in double-doubles (7), Jones and the Liberty face a Sun team that averages only 33.4 rebounds per game, which is the 4th worst in the WNBA.
- In addition, Jones has reached rebounds in double digits in four of the last five, and five of the last six matchups.
Don't let her recent game play fool you, the Liberty always turn to Jones in competitive games, and we saw this in the postseason last year.
JONQUEL JONES DOUBLE-DOUBLE ODDS ON FANDUEL IS +125
Last matchup against Connecticut on June 8, Jones added 22 points and eight rebounds in 38 minutes of play. Assuming the game will stay close through the end, her points prop has 100 percent hit rate when playing 38 minutes, and similar with the rebounds.
Although the Sun are an extremely proficient rebounding team, Jones is stronger, and we've seen that time and time again. Aside from DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones, Connecticut simply doesn't have the height depth to keep up with Jones.
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