2026 WNBA MVP Odds & Predictions: A'ja Wilson or Olivia Miles?

The 2026 WNBA season is coming to an end. The league is in the midst of a 17-day break as the FIBA World Cup begins tomorrow in Berlin. When WNBA game play resumes on Sept. 17, each team has nearly four regular-season games remaining.

In this article, I will break down the current MVP odds, the favorite, and my best prediction for who will win. Right now, A'ja Wilson and Olivia Miles are the front-runners. Can Caitlin Clark or Kelsey Mitchell make a last minute push?

(Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)

Prior to the start of the 2026 WNBA season, it was A'ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark who led the early MVP race in mid-March at +260 odds on FanDuel. Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell had +7500 odds, ranking her No. 15 on the odds list.

In May, I wrote another article pertaining to the MVP odds. This time, Clark led the race (+250), followed by Wilson (+270). Mitchell remained at +7500, while Olivia Miles didn't make the list for the full field.

As the season winds down, the MVP award includes the most valuable player with the most impact on their team. In this case, winning percentage and team success do matter.

As we look at the candidates, Olivia Miles was never expected to be in the MVP conversation so early. Drafted No. 2 overall by the Minnesota Lynx in the 2026 WNBA Draft, she's exceeded expectations and then some. Leading the Lynx to a WNBA-best 31-9 record, she's a viable candidate and leading Rookie of the Year front-runner.

A'ja Wilson Leads 2026 WNBA MVP Race

A four-time MVP, Wilson has led the defending champion Las Vegas Aces to a 27-13 record, which puts them third in the standings. The overwhelming favorite (-1200) to win the award for the fifth time, Wilson has put together another consistent, historic, and strong season.

Of course, there's a strong case for Fever backcourt duo Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. Clark (+5000) is a long shot, but has picked up her game after missing most of last season. Not only does she lead the WNBA in assists per game (8.3 APG), but the Fever rank fifth in the standings at 26-14.

Mitchell, on the other hand, has made a strong MVP case for herself this season. Averaging a career-high 25.0 points per game, Mitchell is one of the most elite and consistent shooters in the league. In fact, she's now scored 20+ points in 21 straight games, which is a new WNBA record.

It all comes down to these last four games: Clark and Mitchell can get back in the running, but Indiana finishes out the season with back-to-back games against the Lynx. If they finish out strong, expect the odds to shift.

Let's take a look at the current WNBA MVP odds, the favorites, and my best bet who will win the award in 2026. Players including Paige Bueckers and Breanna Stewart remain in the conversation.

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2026 WNBA MVP Betting Odds (DraftKings)

• A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces: -1200
• Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx: +800
• Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever: +4000
• Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever: +5000
• Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings: +20000
• Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty: +25000

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Past WNBA MVP Winners

The MVP Favorite

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces: -1200

It's no surprise that Wilson is the MVP front-runner, as she has a 92.3% implied probability to win on DraftKings.

Wilson leads the WNBA in points per game (26.0 PPG), which nearly matches her career-high of 26.9 PPG in 2024. At 6-foot-4, Wilson isn't just strictly an inside big. We know her midrange shot from the nail is automatic, and she's far expanded her game out to the perimeter.

In 37 games, she's posted career highs in assists (3.2 APG), free throws (6.7 FTM), and 3-point attempts (2.4 3PTA). All while shooting 52.3% from the field, 39.8% from beyond the arc, and 85.9% from the free-throw line. It's not a perfect 50/40/90 season, but Wilson is not far off.

As mentioned previously, the Aces are having another solid season, and trail the No. 2 seed Golden State Valkyries by just two games. And it's possible that the Aces have one of the easiest schedules down the stretch. If Wilson keeps up her dominance, Las Vegas has four games remaining, all against teams that have been eliminated: Seattle Storm (twice), Los Angeles Sparks, and Phoenix Mercury.

It's a strong stretch for Wilson, who is averaging 25.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 2.8 blocks against all three of those teams. In fact, Wilson is putting up an average of 22.7 points in three games against the Sparks, 24.3 points per game in three games against the Mercury, and 34 points per game in one game vs. the Storm.

Will A'ja Wilson Win Her Fifth WNBA MVP?

There's no doubt that Wilson's impact on the Aces is profound. Las Vegas boasts a +12.3 Net rating with Wilson on the court and -13.5 net rating with Wilson off the court, per Basketball Reference. Heading into the playoffs, Wilson will prove why she's more valuable to this team than any other player. With Wilson on the court, the Aces have an elite rim protector, and a high-volume, highly-efficient scorer who can stretch the floor. When she's off, the Aces tend to lose that momentum.

The season-ending injury to NaLyssa Smith was devastating. And although the Aces signed Kalani Brown, Wilson's ability to carry the frontcourt is crucial.

Wilson already owns the most MVPs in WNBA history and is considered one of the best two-way players in the league. Not to mention she already owns the WNBA scoring record with 26.9 points per game in 2024. Will she pass that this season?

Why A'ja Wilson Can Win MVP

We already know that Wilson is the fastest player to reach 6,000 points, and her stats have been monstrous this season. Not to mention, consistency is the real story here. Not only did Wilson disrupt Connecticut's defense for 45 points, but she also erupted for near-triple-doubles against the Washington Mystics, Liberty, Storm, and Fire. Ranking fourth in double-doubles with 18, Wilson has now scored 30 or more points in at least 11 games, and 20+ points in all but seven games.

The numbers speak for themselves: Wilson is averaging 26.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.1 blocks per game in 26 wins with Las Vegas.  Since the All-Star break in July, she's posting 25.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.9 blocks. Not to mention, her 3-point volume has drastically increased.

MVP Runner-Up

Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx: +800

As mentioned previously, I did not expect Miles to be an MVP runner-up in her rookie season. I saw how elite she was in college with Notre Dame and TCU, but she's been generational.

Miles was scooped up by the Lynx second overall when the Dallas Wings selected Azzi Fudd No. 1 overall. This must have been fate because Miles not only has head coach Cheryl Reeve but assistant coach and former WNBA legend Lindsay Whalen at her disposal.

In her first 38 games as a WNBA rookie, Miles is putting up absurd numbers: 19.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.3 steals, while shooting 49.5% from the field, 39.6% from three, and 86.9% from the line. Plus, she boasts a 60.8% true shooting percentage, which is ... unreal.

Those types of numbers are efficient similar to that of a veteran in the WNBA, not so much a rookie. Given the Lynx lost multiple players in free agency and Napheesa Collier due to injury early on, Miles was thrown to the wolves. And with that, she passed the test.

Why Olivia Miles Can Win the WNBA MVP

I'm not sure if we've ever seen a player like Miles. She's a true point guard who's emotional and fearless. Her incredible IQ and court vision make her truly special. Her ability to drive downhill and create her own shot is exceptional.

The performance speaks for itself: Miles is a four-time Rookie of the Month recipient and two-time Player of the Week. Her impact on the Lynx' success is profound as she is +11.7 on the court with the Lynx. Not to mention, we have to look at some of her top performances!

Specifically, Miles was a huge reason why the Lynx defeated the Mystics 78-76. I mean, how many rookies can score 21 fourth-quarter points? We can call her fourth-quarter Miles, as she scored 10 points in the final 10 minutes in the 92-87 victory over the Aces. Then, we saw her score 23 points against the Liberty, and a career-high 33 points against the Mercury.

What makes Miles an MVP candidate is not only her ability to create shots and score with high efficiency. She's a mini Chelsea Gray and one of the most elite passers in the WNBA. Whether it's a no-look or bounce pass, she put up a career-best 13 assists against the Dallas Wings. Defensively, we've seen her put up multiple blocks (4) in a game, along with steals.

Candace Parker: Only Rookie to Win MVP in WNBA History

It helps that Miles is surrounded by talent in Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Natasha Howard, and now Collier who is healthy. Not only does she have multiple 30+ point performances, but she has shown she can handle the workload with eight 3-pointers against Phoenix.

The only downside is that the Valkyries know how to defend Miles and she's struggled against them this season. Plus, the Lynx have a tough remaining schedule ahead, against the Liberty and back-to-back games against Caitlin Clark and the Fever.

While Miles has had an unreal and generational rookie season, she's priced at +800 odds (11.11%) for a reason. This is a tough race, personally, as I feel Miles has had the most impact on her team. She's performed at the highest level at the next level with new teammates, coaches, and injuries to start. As Cheryl Reeve stated, would the Lynx really have the record they have without Miles?

My WNBA MVP Prediction: A'ja Wilson

I want to point out that Clark and Mitchell are having incredible seasons, but there's a chance the Fever could fall in the standings. Well, I guess that's any team, right?

My case for both A'ja Wilson and Olivia Miles has been stated, but I ultimately think this will come down to Wilson. Now that Wilson has pulled out of FIBA World Cup play, not only will she have ample rest, but she also has a fairly easy four games ahead.

She recently won her fourth Western Conference Player of the Month honor and continues to anchor the Aces through and through. Overall, while I think Miles makes an extremely strong case, it's Wilson's to lose. If she stays healthy, the odds are very much in her favor.

• Both Wilson and Cynthia Cooper are the only players in WNBA history to repeat as MVP back-to-back. Wilson is the most dominant player in the WNBA, and there are very few teams that have been able to slow her down. The odds may change in her favor or not. At -1200 odds, Wilson has a 92.3% chance of winning. That said, I would not recommend betting on Wilson as the risk outweighs the return. In this case, it's worth to sprinkle a unit on Miles, if anything. It is going to be difficult for anyone to beat Wilson.  The Aces are 1-2 without her in the three games that she missed.