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WNBA Predictions Today: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Best Bets and Odds July 1

Publish Date: 07/01/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Connecticut Sun are 8-2 vs. Phoenix Mercury over the last 10 meetings
  • The Sun defeated the Mercury 70-47 in their first matchup of the season

It's Monday, and there's some late-night action on the WNBA slate. Beginning at 10 p.m. ET, the Connecticut Sun (14-4, 6-2 away) will face the Phoenix Mercury (9-9, 7-3 home) on the road as three-point favorites.

Although 14-4, this Connecticut team is 1-3 in their last four games, including a heartbreaking 78-74 loss against the Atlanta Dream at home. Is this a bump in the road, or will we see a Sun team that demolished the Phoenix Mercury 70-47 back in May?

On the second leg of a back-to-back, the Mercury were stunned 88-82 on Sunday afternoon by Caitlin Clark's near triple-double, and the Indiana Fever.

(Photo by Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images)

ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF JULY 1 AT 9 A.M. ET.

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If you're inclined to bet on some WNBA action tonight, tip-off for both matchups will begin at 10 p.m. ET and will air on WNBA League Pass.

I've collected the best odds from a multitude of legal sportsbooks. In anticipation of tonight's matchup, I've compiled all the statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop, straight bet predictions, and overall WNBA best bets for July 1.

It's worth to note, all of my bets for the WNBA have been placed at FanDuel Sportsbook. In this article, I will include a list of WNBA Player Prop bets, along with favorable spread bets.

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CONNECTICUT SUN Vs PHOENIX MERCURY FAN DUEL ODDS FOR JULY 1

MONEY LINE

  • CONNECTICUT SUN: -168
  • PHOENIX MERCURY: +136

SPREAD

  • CONNECTICUT SUN: -3 (-112)
  • PHOENIX MERCURY: +3 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 158.5 (-108)
  • UNDER: 158.5 (-112)

BEST ODDS FOR CONNECTICUT SUN Vs PHOENIX MERCURY

  •  BetMGM has the best Sun money line odds at -155.
  • The Connecticut Sun are 3 point favorites against the Phoenix Mercury. Caesars currently has the best odds currently at -110.
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  • The Phoenix Mercury  are the underdogs by 3.5 points to cover the spread tonight. BetMGM currently has the best odds at -115 for Phoenix to cover the spread.
  • BetMGM currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -110 for the over (158.5), and Caesars for the under at -110 (158).

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 CONNECTICUT SUN Vs PHOENIX MERCURY INJURY REPORT

CONNECTICUT SUN INJURY REPORT

  1. G, Moriah Jefferson, OUT: Ankle

PHOENIX MERCURY  INJURY REPORT

  1. G, Charisma Osborne, Questionable

2024 HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: MYSTICS VS. FEVER

Season Matchups:

  • Game 1: May 28: Connecticut 70, Phoenix 47 (Connecticut -8, Under 168)
  • O/U last 10 matchups: 4-6
  • Connecticut Sun are 8-2 vs. Phoenix Mercury over the last 10 head-to-head matchups

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SPREAD BET: CONNECTICUT SUN

  • -3 (-112 FanDuel)

The Connecticut Sun find themselves matched up yet again against the Phoenix Mercury, which they massacred back in May. In light of my WNBA best bets, I love the Connecticut Sun to cover the three point spread, and firmly believe this spread should be larger than it is.

Yes, if you're a Sun fan or bettor, it's been a miserable time. Just 1-4 in their last five matchups, Connecticut is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games.

However, if you've bet on each of their last five games, the opponents haven't exactly equated to a walk in the park. They've had to face the Seattle Storm, and Las Vegas Aces.

Even with Brittney Griner back in the lineup for Phoenix, the Mercury remain one of the least efficient teams on the defensive end. After a disastrous 2023 season, the roster underwent an overhaul, which included the hiring of head coach Nate Tibbetts.

With a talented depth chart that includes Natasha Cloud, Diana Taurasi, Grinder, Kahleah Copper, among others, this team has the potential to contend. However, I expect the chemistry to continue to build as the season progresses.

You could argue that the Mercury are 10-6 against the spread on the season, and have a solid 7-3 ATS record over their last 10 games.

As mentioned in my previous articles, the WNBA isn't as top heavy, and any team could claim victory on any given night. Blowing a 15 point lead, their offense was abysmal against the Indiana Fever Sunday afternoon. Defeated 88-82 against the Fever, Phoenix was sluggish in the paint, and on the rebounds.

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The frustration built up after a clear confrontation between Cloud and Temi Fagbenle, and in a physical matchup, the Mercury allowed five Fever players to score in double figures.

Heck, even Caitlin Clark was just one rebound shy of a triple-double. With that loss, the Mercury have now lost two of their last three matchups.

  • If you're betting on the WNBA tonight, the Sun remain an elite team, despite their recent woes.

Sure, they are 4-6 against the spread over the last 10, however,  they were favored by 10 points or more in five of those matchups. Favored by an average of 10.5 points over the last two games, the Sun have a much lesser spread to worry about tonight.

THE CONNECTICUT SUN ARE 3 POINT SPREAD FAVORITES TONIGHT Vs THE PHOENIX MERCURY

  • Overall, Connecticut, led by head coach Stephanie White, remain second in the league in defensive rating (93), and fourth in offensive efficiency (101.6).
  • With the third best net rating in the WNBA (8.6), they again face a Mercury team that's ranked in the bottom half in net rating (-3.7), and a point differential of -2.2.
  • Compare that to a Connecticut Sun team, who boasts a +6.6 point differential, which ranks third in the WNBA.

We already know the Sun embarrassed the Mercury by 23 points in their first outing of the season. Held to under 50 points for the first and only time all season, I highly doubt Phoenix will have another clash with the Sun without a player without points in double figures.

  • Even as suffocating pests Connecticut can be on the defensive end, I am confident the Mercury will shoot more efficient than 3.7 percent from downtown, and 23.8 percent from the field.

The money line is worth a look at, although there's better value with the three point spread over the -168 Connecticut Sun money line value. With the amount of risk, I've opted to veer away from betting on the straight money line.

With the Mercury set to take the court at home, I do expect a much more competitive matchup, especially since they are more efficient at home. Bottom line, I trust the Connecticut Sun chemistry, depth, and their defense alone.

  • With the Mercury coming off a back-t0-back, they are 0-1 with zero days rest, in which they only put up 78 points per game.
  • I'll take the coaching, and the combination of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, DiJonai Carrington, and Tyasha Harris over the Mercury starting five.

The Sun's offensive has definitely regressed somewhat, as they look to bounce back from their loss against Atlanta. However, we saw the Mercury completely fall apart in the second half against Indiana, and currently allow 83.1 points over the last 10 games.

Although it will be close, I'll take Connecticut to cover tonight, especially with two days rest.

CONNECTICUT SUN VS. PHOENIX MERCURY  BETTING PREDICTION: CONNECTICUT SUN -3 (-112 FanDuel)

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WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #1: ALYSSA THOMAS

ALYSSA THOMAS SEASON STATS

PPG: 12.2  | FG: 50.3 % | FT: 65.6 % | REB: 9.4 | AST: 7.6 | STL: 1.6 | BLK: 0.5

  • 8+ Assists (-112 FanDuel)

Let's face it, Alyssa Thomas is the engine and catalyst for offensive production for the Connecticut Sun. One of the most elite point forwards in the WNBA, Thomas is a fierce competitor on the defensive end, averaging 1.6 steals per game.

  • Averaging near another double-double for the second consecutive year, I'm high on Thomas 8+ assists tonight. With -112 odds on FanDuel, she faces a Mercury team that allows the ninth most assists in the WNBA with 21.4 per game.

Although they've improves slightly on defense among the return of Brittney Griner, Caitlin Clark torched them with 12 assists, and Aari McDonald with 10 previously.

  • Just last week, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones of the New York Liberty, combined for 15 total assists.

Racking up eight assists in each of the last three matchups against Phoenix, Thomas is coming off an eight dime night against the Atlanta Dream.

Given she's averaging 7.6 assists per game on the season, I don't see the line terribly elevated. If there's anyone I trust to facilitate and run the offense, it's Thomas. Unless, of course, it's another blow out.

Statistically speaking, this is a prop that has hit the over in just one of the last five matchups. However, Thomas is logging some heavy minutes, including over 35 minutes of playing time against Atlanta.

  • Although this is nothing knew, she's the caliber of player who is able to play 40 minutes if needed.
  • An elite interior scorer, she does a majority of the damage both on the glass and facilitating.

One of the fiercest competitors in the WNBA, I expect this prop to go over, even with the rise of Veronica Burton and her assist percentage. Now in her 11h season, all with the Connecticut Sun, the guard is averaging 8.1 assists off two days rest.

WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #2: DIJONAI CARRINGTON

DIJONAI CARRINGTON SEASON STATS

PPG: 13 | FG: 41.,1 % | FT: 80.8 % | REB: 4.6 | AST: 1.8 | STL: 1.1 | BLK: 0.4

  • Over 13.5 points (+102 FanDuel)

First of all, I love the odds for DiJonai Carrington to score over 13.5 points tonight for +102 on FanDuel.

  • Averaging 13 points on the season, Carrington faces the Mercury, who allow the fourth most points in the WNBA (84.6).

Guards especially cooked up against Phoenix, which is what makes this prop so enticing.  With Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark combined 31 points on Sunday, Sabrina Ionescu poured in 19 points.

  • In addition Arike Ogunbowale exploded for 25 and 40 points against the Mercury this season.

Carrington is one of my favorite candidates for most improved, especially since placed in the starting lineup for Stephanie White. A relentless defender, the former Baylor star is dominant in attacking the rim, and will face a team that's allowing over 60 points per game against guards on the season.

  • Overall, for the value, Carrington is coming off a 22 and 16 point performance against the Mystics and Dream.

Although she hasn't gone over the prop total in her last six games, you have to analyze why. First off, she wasn't a starter for the Sun in years past, and she only played a total of 23 minutes in the Sun's 23 point blowout over the Mercury earlier this season.

Although the Mercury put the clamps on in the paint, they allow opponents to shoot 35.3 percent from the three, and league high 27.8 three-point attempts per game.

  • With an average of 13 field goal attempts over the last two matchups, Carrington is shooting an impeccable service 47.2 percent from beyond the arc over the span.

Given she shoots under 30 percent from the outside, I expect the Sun guard to continue the ride the hot hand, especially off two days rest. Speaking of rest, Carrington is averaging just over 12 points per game when its two days or more. I love this pick and the value for tonight.

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