WNBA Odds: Minnesota Lynx O/U 2026 Season Wins Prediction

The Minnesota Lynx looked destined for the WNBA Finals after going 34-10 during the regular season in 2025. But the Phoenix Mercury ended that dream with a 3-1 series win in the semifinals. With the start of the 2026 season fast approaching, fans are hoping the Lynx can run it back.

However, the Minnesota Lynx's win total (26.5 games on DraftKings) may be seen as a sign that less is expected of them this season. They could certainly lose a few games early on with Napheesa Collier out for the first month. But this is a team that won 30+ games for two consecutive years.

(Photo by Ellen Schmidt/NBAE via Getty Images)

To expect closer to 26.5 wins just seems like a significant drop off. Being without Collier due to an ankle injury will sting, but the offseason did not go poorly for the Lynx. Let’s take a look at the season odds and the team to see if we can figure out a good number for it.

WNBA Odds: Minnesota Lynx O/U Wins Total

This is a market you definitely want to shop around in before placing a bet, especially during the preseason when markets like win totals may still differ from one sportsbook to the next. For example, here is the Minnesota Lynx Wins Total from two competing sportsbooks:

Minnesota Lynx Regular Season Wins — bet365

• Over 27.5 at +100
• Under 27.5 at -130

Minnesota Lynx Regular Season Wins — FanDuel

• Over 26.5 at +100
• Under 26.5 at -122

If you are leaning towards taking the under at 26.5, you can find a slightly better price at BetMGM (-120), but an even better one at DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook (-115). Once the season gets underway, you’ll be less likely to see this market vary from one sportsbook to the next.

For now, the team’s outlook is based purely on speculation involving Minnesota and how its opponents may have improved or regressed. Eleven games were decided by five points or less (wins and losses) last season. So, in theory, the Lynx could have gained or lost a number of wins had a couple of plays gone differently.

Napheesa Collier Injury Not The Only Thing Impacting Minnesota’s Outlook

According to reports, Collier could begin on-court activities as early as June. How long it takes for her to progress to playing in a game is something we can’t know until then. But let’s assume she starts on-court work on June 1, takes a couple of weeks to get game-ready, and returns on June 15 at home vs. Portland.

That would mean missing 14 games, and she may start the season with a minutes restriction. But let’s say she doesn’t return until Minnesota’s first home game in July, which is on the 6th vs. Connecticut. That would mean missing 20 games of a 44-game season.

So, how the season plays out will depend largely on the roster's makeup. It did undergo several changes from last season, but the team did bring back a solid core from last season’s 34-win squad:

• Returning: Napheesa Collier, Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, Dorka Juhász, Anastasiia Kosu, Jaylyn Sherrod, and Aubrey Griffin

Collier, Williams, and McBride accounted for 50.7 points per game last season when the team averaged a league-high 86.1 points. However, the Lynx did lose several solid role players:

• Departures: Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton, Natisha Hiedeman, DiJonai Carrington, Jessica Shepard, and Maria Kliundikova

But they also picked up several promising players in Natasha Howard, Nia Coffey, Emma Čechová, Eliška Hamzová, and drafted TCU standout Olivia Miles.

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My Pick: OVER 26.5 (+100, FanDuel)

Minnesota has several solid players coming back, but it lost a few in the offseason and will be without Collier for a good chunk of the 2026 slate. If the Lynx did not have such a good coach in Cheryl Reeve, it would be easy to take the under and forget about it. But Reeve is an excellent coach and could get this talented roster on the same page sooner rather than later.

If Collier can assimilate quickly upon her return, Minnesota could become a dominant force in the back half of the regular season. A relatively easy front half of the schedule will make it easier for the Lynx to go over this total. With Collier back by the time the second half rolls around, they’ll win enough to go over this mark by the end of the season.