WNBA Parlay Picks (July 22): Best Bets & Odds Featuring Mystics, Fever & Fire

It is an exciting day for WNBA fans with six great games scheduled throughout the day, starting early in the afternoon at 3 p.m. EST with the Phoenix Mercury taking on the Sparks in Los Angeles and the Seattle Storm hosting the Minnesota Lynx (with Napheesa Collier expected to make her season debut!).

Of course, six games mean we have a plethora of betting markets to choose from today. My focus here is going to be on my best WNBA Parlay Picks. As intriguing as some of the early matchups are, I am going to use the final three games in my parlay. Let’s take a look at the odds for those games before reviewing each leg of my WNBA parlay.

Photo by Washington Mystics

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Now, let’s take a look at my WNBA parlay pick for the day.

WNBA Parlay Picks (July 22)

All odds via FanDuel

Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics

• Spread: Las Vegas -6.5 (-105) | Washington +6.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas -250 | Washington +198
• Total: O/U 164.5 (-108/-112)

Leg No. 1: Mystics +6.5 (-115)

It almost feels criminal not to back the Aces (18-7, 11-2 Away) against a team like the Mystics (13-12, 5-6 Home). Vegas just crushed Toronto by 26 points on the road and recently embarrassed Phoenix with a dominant 48-point win. But sandwiched in between those two wins is a 34-point loss to Indiana at home.

Okay, so the Fever have the highest scoring offense in the league, but their defense is suspect (8th best on the road, 86.6 points per game allowed). The Fever held the best player in the league, A’ja Wilson, to a relatively quiet 20-point night. With no one else stepping up to put points on the board, the Aces suffered their third 30+ point loss of the season.

Washington has quietly become the second-best defense in the league, with teams averaging 82.5 points per game against them. But the Mystics defense gets even more impressive when you just look at their last five games: 74.4 points per game allowed, best in the league.

But can they contain the Las Vegas offense while scoring enough to stay within the spread? That is the real question here. Vegas has had some issues in recent games, but it has still played solid defense overall, allowing 82.8 points per game. While Washington has been great on the defensive end, it has struggled to score points (75.6 points per game over the last five).

There is no value in the Vegas moneyline, and I don’t think the Mystics can win this one outright. I doubt Washington scores more than 75, but that would mean Vegas would need to score 90 to cover the OVER. It’s possible, but eh.., It’s 50-50.

Washington will not get much help on the offensive end, but I think the defense can play well enough to keep this one close.

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Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever

• Spread: Connecticut +10.5 (-115) | Indiana -10.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Connecticut +370 | Indiana -520
• Total: O/U 178.5 (-105/-115)

Leg No. 2: Indiana -10.5 (-105)

This is one of those games that looks easy to pick. Indiana is the most dominant offense in the league, and Connecticut is a struggling, cellar-dweller of a team. Surely, the Fever can cover a 10.5-point spread against this team. Right?

Well … Indiana did beat the Sun earlier in the season (June 13), 85-75. They were 8.5-point road favorites, so they covered for that game.

The Fever are coming into this matchup winners of four of their last five, including victories over Las Vegas and New York. In that stretch, they averaged 98.8 points per game and scored over 100 points in three games. Their much-maligned defense wasn’t great. But it wasn’t bad, either, holding teams to 89.4 points per game (7th in the league during that stretch).

But they were shut down by the one good defense they played in the last five games; they scored just 75 points against Golden State. The Valkyries have ranked second in the league in defense in their last five, holding teams to 74.6 points per game. Coming in at a surprising third is Connecticut (81.4 points per game allowed).

Could the Sun keep the mighty Indiana offense from going off? Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it with Aliyah Edwards ruled out and Britney Griner questionable. Griner has had some injury issues this season, and it would probably be better for the Sun to take advantage of the All-Star break and give her an extended rest.

Caitlin Clark is listed as probable, but with her injury history, it would not be shocking to see her get the night off. But Indiana has proven they can win without her. It may be close in the end, but the Fever offense is firing on all cylinders right now. They’ll cover against the Sun tonight.

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Dallas Wings vs. Portland Fire

• Spread: Dallas -5.5 (-112) | Portland +5.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Dallas -230 | Portland +186
• Total: O/U 175.5 (-110/-110)

Leg No. 3: Portland +5.5 (-108)

This game is a great example of why you can’t go with your gut when it comes to betting. Mine tells me Dallas will win this game, even if Paige Bueckers doesn’t play (listed as questionable, but she sat out Monday, so it only makes sense to sit today to take advantage of the All-Star Break).

However, the moneyline has no value (-215), but surely they can cover -5.5 points — right? Eh…not so fast.

Dallas is having an excellent season. The Wings are 17-9, have a top-five rated offense (111.5, fourth) and defense (106.3, fifth), and Paige Bueckers may be the only challenger to A’ja Wilson for MVP this year. While they are 13-13 ATS for the season, the Wings have gone 4-8 ATS in their last 12.

Portland, on the other hand, has gone 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Fire were underdogs in all seven and went 3-4. So, they were a bit more competitive than expected. But will that be the case against Dallas tonight?

If Bueckers doesn’t play — absolutely. Portland has been playing solid defense of late, averaging 85.4 points per game allowed in the last five. Containing a Dallas offense that has averaged 96 points per game over its last five is the key. But the offense has been doing its part, too, averaging 87.4 points per game over the last five.

Dallas lost both games this season where Bueckers did not play, one of them to Portland. But with how Arike Ogunbowale, Jessica Shepard, and Azzi Fudd have been playing, I’d pick the Wings to win this one with or without Bueckers.

But without her, and given how Portland has been playing in recent games, I don’t think they’ll cover.

WNBA Parlay Odds: +602

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