WNBA Picks Today: Lynx vs Mercury Game 2 Predictions and Lines on September 25

The Minnesota Lynx eye for the series sweep while the Phoenix Mercury look to extend their season as they meet in Game 2 of their first round series this Wednesday in the Target Center.

(Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Winners of nine of their last 10, the Lynx head into this game in high spirits after holding off a late comeback effort of the Mercury to win 102-95 and draw first blood in their playoff series.

1.  All-Star forward Napheesa Collier exploded for a playoff career-high of 38 points while Kayla McBride had 20 markers for the Lynx who weathered Natasha Cloud’s offensive explosion.
2. Minnesota opened as 7.5-point favorites across multiple bookmakers moments after Game 1 but the line has increased to 8.5 since.
3. The Lynx and the Mercury have met four times in the regular season, with the latter winning three by an average margin of 16.7 points.

While early Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury odds have the home team as the overwhelming favorites in Game 2, it does not mean that the veteran-laden road team cannot pull off the upset.

After all, with future Hall of Famer Diana Taurasi and scoring guard Kahleah Copper at helm, you can never count the Mercury out. As of press time, here’s how the current betting lines look.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury DraftKings WNBA Odds for September 25

Moneyline

• Minnesota Lynx: -410
• Phoenix Mercury: +320

Spread

• Minnesota Lynx: -8.5 (-108)
• Phoenix Mercury: +8.5 (+112)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 160.5 (108)
• UNDER 160.5 (-112)

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

•  No Injuries

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

1. Rebecca Allen – Back – Out for the Season

Best WNBA odds for Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

• The Minnesota Lynx have won five of the last six matchups with the Phoenix Mercury by an average margin of 13.5 points. The best Minnesota Lynx odds to cover the spread are available on Pinnacle at -105.
• The Phoenix Mercury beat the Minnesota Lynx once this season. Pinnacle offers the best odds for the Mercury to win outright at +340.
• The over hit in three of the previous five matchups between the Minnesota Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury. The best Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury odds for the over are available on Pinnacle at -105.

Why will the Minnesota Lynx cover the spread?

The Minnesota Lynx delivered a strong statement in Game 1 as it dominated the Phoenix Mercury from the get go to notch a 102-95 win. A large part was because of All-Star forward Napheesa Collier’s impressive offensive display.

Sharp and well-rested, the 27-year old scoring dynamo exploded for 38 points, six rebounds, and four assists while shooting an astounding 60% from the three-point area.

1. What’s even more impressive is the fact that Collier and the rest of the Lynx won in dominating fashion despite allowing the Mercury to shoot over 50% from the three-point area.
2. It is also worth noting that Minnesota has a superior ATS record against Phoenix, covering 11 times at home this season as opposed to the latter who has struggled away from Arizona this year.
3. The Lynx have also defeated the Mercury by double digits in six of their previous seven meetings.
4. Plus, the Lynx have always been able to get everyone involved in their offense with their crisp passing and excellent finishing as evident from their Game 1 victory where they had 30 total assists.

One thing that Minnesota has to do here is to find ways to contain the high-octane Mercury offense. While they were able to pull off the victory last time, they cannot afford Phoenix to shoot over 50% from three again.

• Fortunately, the Lynx are no slouch in defense, ranking in second for most steals per game at 8.6 and sixth in blocks at 4.2.

Backed by its home crowd and considering the winning stretch the Lynx are going, picking the Lynx to cover the -8.5 spread at these current odds might be worth taking a look.

Why will the Phoenix Mercury cover the spread?

Had it not for a terrible first quarter in Game 1, the Phoenix Mercury could’ve been leading the series 1-0 here. But what’s done is done and there’s nothing Phoenix can do to change that.

Fortunately, they can still right all the wrongs and force a deciding Game 3. Despite losing last time though, there are still a few positive things the Mercury can look back on.

1. Averaging just a shade under 12 points per game, guard Natasha Cloud exploded for 33 points on top of 10 assists, and six rebounds to keep the Mercury afloat.
2. Also as impressive in that game was future Hall of Famer Diana Taurasi who had 20 points on 50% shooting from the field.
3. It is also worth noting that while the Mercury lost, they were able to cover the spread after coming in as 10.5-point underdogs in Game 1.

However, the Mercury has to get leading scorer Kahleah Copper to find her offensive rhythm. The 30-year old Copper was only limited to 16 points in Game 1 on a dismal 6-for-15 shooting from the field.

Other than that, Phoenix should also learn to play defense without fouling. Minnesota forced the Mercury to commit 21 fouls in Game 1, which eventually led to the former shooting 25 shots from the charity stripe.

Should the Mercury keep shooting the ball like they did in Game 1 and limit their fouls, backing them to cover the spread and possibly win outright at these current odds could be a good play here.

Final Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Prediction: Phoenix Mercury ML +320

The Minnesota Lynx are just a completely different team right now. In fact, one could argue that picking against them can be classified as - in Stephen A. Smith’s words - blasphemy.

Considering how the Phoenix Mercury played in the final stretches of Game 1, I am more inclined towards picking them to win outright. Of course, this is a low confidence pick but I am willing to take a flier on the road team to force a deciding game.