WNBA Picks Today: Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Game 1 Predictions and Lines on September 29

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Two of the league’s best offensive teams, the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun go for the jugular as they collide in Game 1 of the semifinal round of the WNBA playoffs this Tuesday at the Target Center.

Minnesota, which currently leads the league in scoring, displayed its dominance in the opening round by sweeping the Phoenix Mercury while Connecticut overcame a gritty Indiana Fever squad to move into the next round.

• Both teams have met thrice this year with Connecticut winning two games by an average margin of three points.
• Minnesota’s lone victory against Connecticut came in the tail-end of the season and what’s even more impressive is they did it away from home.
• The Lynx have opened as 4.5-point favorites as per the latest Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun betting lines.

With both squads seemingly even from top to bottom, expect both teams to come out the gates strong in a game that could end down to the wire. In this Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun betting predictions, we’ll take an in-depth look at these teams and make our pick.

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun DraftKings WNBA Odds for September 29

Moneyline

• Minnesota Lynx: -205
• Connecticut Sun: +170

Spread

• Minnesota Lynx: -4.5 (-115)
• Connecticut Sun: +4.5 (-105)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 154 (-110)
• UNDER 154 (-110)

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Injury Report

Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

• No Injuries

Connecticut Sun Injury Report

1. Tyasha Harris – Day-to-Day
2. Tiffany Mitchell – Illness – Out

Best WNBA odds for Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun

• The Minnesota Lynx covered the -1.5 spread in their previous encounter with the Connecticut Sun. The best Minnesota Lynx odds to win and cover the -4.5 spread in Game 2 are available on Pinnacle at -104.
• The Connecticut Sun has beaten the Minnesota Lynx twice in their three encounters this season. FanDuel offers the best odds for Connecticut to win outright are on Pinnacle at +187.
• The under hit in five of the last six encounters between the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun. The best Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun odds for the under are available on DraftKings at -110.

Why will the Minnesota Lynx cover the spread?

Winners of nine of their last 10, the Minnesota Lynx went hot right in time for the playoffs thanks to its collective team effort and of course, versatile forward Napheesa Collier.

• Losing the Most Valuable Player award for the second straight year hasn’t deterred Collier from playing her best, especially in the first round, where she put up insane averages of 40 points, 5.5 rebounds, and four assists in two games against the Phoenix Mercury.

With Collier shooting the lights out, there could be significant value towards backing the Lynx to cover the -4.5 spread against a Connecticut Sun squad that has been hit or miss against the league’s contenders this season.

• It is also worth noting that the 28-year old Collier recently led the Lynx to a victory against the Sun in their penultimate regular season game, tallying 25 points and six rebounds.
• Also impressive in that game was crafty guard Kayla McBride who has been averaging just above 17 points and four assists in this year’s playoffs.
• Minnesota is also the best team in the league as far as covering the spread is concerned, sporting a 27-16 ATS record.

One thing the Lynx have to do here to give themselves some breathing space against an unpredictable Sun team is to be the first to loose balls and rebounds.

In their two losses against the Sun during the regular season, Minnesota found themselves outmuscled and outrebounded by a gritty Connecticut team 35-28 in the first game and 33-30 in the second.

Should Collier continue her hot shooting and Minnesota imposed its dominance inside early, backing the Lynx to cover the -4.5 spread is the play here.

Why will the Connecticut Sun cover the spread?

Balanced scoring and crisp passing propelled the Connecticut Sun to an 87-82 Game 2 victory against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever to move into the next round.

Connecticut will need more of that as they will be taking on a Minnesota Lynx team that has beaten them in their previous encounter.

• However, the Sun still leads the season series after winning the first two games by an average margin of three points.
• In their victories against the Lynx this season, one thing that stood out for Connecticut was forward Dewanna Bonner who averaged 22 points, six rebounds, and two steals.

For context, the 37-year old Bonner was only held to nine points on a dismal 4-out-of-10 shooting from the field in their lone defeat to the Lynx this season.

• The good news for Connecticut bettors is Bonner’s resurgence in the first round against the Fever where she put up 18.5 points, seven rebounds, and 3.5 assists while committing just two turnovers.

Besides Bonner, Connecticut as a whole should also learn to take care of the ball. In their lone defeat against the Lynx this season, the Sun turned the ball over 16 times, which is something you cannot do against a potent offensive squad like Minnesota.

With Bonner regaining her shooting touch and Connecticut’s top-heavy offensive prowess, backing the road squad to cover the +4.5 spread at these current odds could offer potential value for punters looking for a betting spot on the underdog

Final Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun WNBA Prediction: Minnesota Lynx -4.5 (-110) Under

With plenty of offensive weapons at their disposal, there’s no denying that the Connecticut Sun is a really good team. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Lynx are just slightly better and are far more consistent as far as covering the spread is concerned.

1. Unlike the Lynx who are 27-16 ATS, Connecticut has been hit or miss against the spread, sporting a 19-22-1 card this season.
2. Plus, the last time they faced, Minnesota did not only win but also covered the spread and what’s even more impressive is the fact that they did it on the road.

Another thing I like here is the under. Although Minnesota and Connecticut are in the upper echelon as far as offense is concerned, I expect both squads to follow a methodical approach in Game 1 and see the weaknesses they can exploit.