WNBA Daily: Top player props, odds, and betting predictions for Thursday, May 16

It's official! The WNBA season has arrived, and there is a prime matchup between the New York Liberty (1-0, 1-0 away) vs. the Indiana Fever (0-1, 0-0 home). In a highly anticipated betting and fan experience, Caitlin Clark, of the Indiana Fever, will make her debut at home tonight. With an expected sell-out crowd, Clark will continue to make headlines across the WNBA.

The overall no. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, Clark remains a top athlete for prop bets tonight. Although her WNBA debut went poorly against the Connecticut Sun earlier this week, she will get a chance to redeem herself tonight.

 (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

In their first game of the season, the New York Liberty defeated the Washington Mystics 85-80.  Once holding a ten point lead, the Liberty didn't have the most exhilarating performance on the offensive end. Led by Jonquel Jones, the center had a game high 25 points, eight rebounds, two assists, and one block, on 10-17 from the field, and 50 percent from deep.

Unlike last season, Jones is fully healthy to start this season, and truly looked in mid season form. With head coach Sandy Brondello starting double  bigs in Jones and Breanna Stewart, both are excellent at spacing the floor.

Not only did Jones look crisp on the boards, her three-point shot looks smoother than ever. '

Aside from Jones, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton was second in scoring for the Liberty with 20 points, four rebounds, two assists, and two steals, on 9-13 field goal shooting. While Brondello got a productive two-way performance and 11 minutes from the bench, Sabrina Ionescu scored 15 points, on 4-12 and 1-7 shooting from beyond the arc.

Although the Libs had a poor shooting performance from deep (28.6 percent), their defense kept the Mystics in check.

Held to under 40 percent from the floor and three-point line, it was New York's toughness that overcame their sloppiness.

Barely winning, the Liberty had a total of 19 turnovers, which gave away 19 points to Washington. With Stewart having an off night, bigs Steph Dolson and Skakira Austin matched Jones. With a combined 10 rebounds, Dolson and Austin had 25 points. It's worth to note, the Liberty did leave Austin open on several occasions.

CAITLIN CLARK JUST MISSED HER PLAYER PROP TOTAL IN HER WNBA DEBUT

The Indiana Fever made their season debut against the Connecticut Sun. With 2.1 million viewers, it was the most watched game since 2001 and had a peak of 2.3 million viewers. Although the Fever kept the game in check, it was the Sun that pulled away with 27 fourth-quarter points. Underdogs by 6.5 points, Indiana struggled on both ends of the floor.

In Cailtin Clark's WNBA debut, the former Iowa guard poured in 20 points on 4-11 three-point shooting. Racking up four personal fouls, the Fever sensation had 10 turnovers, which was the most ever in a rookie debut.

While NaLyssa Smith and Aliyah Boston dominated on the boards with 15, their was a lack of offensive output among the starting five. Connecticut, who will be a defensive pest all season, held Indiana to 14 fourth quarter points.

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ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF May 16 AT 9 A.M. ET.

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If you're inclined to bet on some WNBA action tonight, tip-off between the Liberty and Fever will begin at 7 P.M ET, and air on Prime Video.

I've collected the best odds from a multitude of legal sportsbooks. In anticipation of tonight's matchup, I've compiled all the statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop predictions.

Here are my preferred NBA prop bets for Thursday, May 16, all taken as straight bets.

Looking to bet on the WNBA? Compiled is a list of the best WNBA sportsbooks where you can make wagers.

WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #1: CAITLIN CLARK (INDIANA FEVER)

CAITLIN CLARK SEASON STATS

Tonight is a matchup you don't want to miss, as Caitlin Clark will make her home debut with the Indiana Fever. While she didn't perform the best to her ability in the opener, I do like Clark points tonight. I initially saw the line over 20 points, and I was able to get that back down to 19.5 points.

Although -188 isn't the best value, I do believe Clark will have a better performance tonight, especially in front of the Fever loyal.

The question remains, can Clark redeem herself tonight, or will the Liberty lock her up just like the Sun did?

CAILTIN CLARK FANDUEL ODDS

• Over 19.5 points (-188)
• 4.5 assists (-175)

I was initially torn to bet on Clark, especially after her season debut. And even then, I chose to refrain, as she missed the 20.5 threshold by .5. I do think the rookie will have an adjustment period in the WNBA, however, she scored 20 points in her first game, and that was against the top defensive team in the league.

With 20 points, Clark had great shot volume, taking 15 total attempts, and 32 minutes played. Although head coach Christie Sides opted to sit the Iowa product more than we're used to, she should get similar minutes and volume tonight.

The Liberty are a tough team, and have building chemistry from last year's finals appearance. Having built more depth on the bench, Laney-Hamilton is the go to player to defend the best perimeter player. While its hard to guess who Brondello will stick on Clark, I am more confident about this prop if it's Sabrina Ionescu.

Although New York held Washington to 31 percent from deep, that's partially in part to their lack of offense. The Fever managed to shoot 40 percent from beyond the arc, and that was against a Connecticut Sun team, who's known for their prowess.

I do think this line is slightly inflated, however, we saw the Liberty struggle at times in their season opener, leaving several of the Mystics wide open. With Ariel Atkins finishing 4-7 from three, I do believe Clark will get some great looks tonight. I'm not saying the Libs aren't a great defensive team, however, DiJonai Carrington won't be smothering her all night.

All it takes is for Clark to get slight separation off the screen, and it's a bucket. Allowing 10 three-pointers made and 32 long-shots attempted per game, I'm confident Clark will slightly progress. Although New York will make her work for it.

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CAITLIN CLARK O 4.5 ASSISTS

I am love with this assists prop tonight, and I think it's relatively low to what her season average will be. We all know this isn't college, where Clark averaged nearly nine assists per game.

However, if the shots aren't falling, I do expect her to run to pick and roll with both Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith. If Clark is unable to get the looks she wants, she may be forced to force the rock.

One aspect I love about Clark is her vision of the court and facilitating abilities. In her season debut, she finished with three assists, which should have been a lot higher. Given the guard turned over the ball ten times, a majority of those were poor or overthrown passes.

I expect sophomore center Aliyah Boston to bet more involved this game, and look for Clark to make those notorious passes on the inbound transition opportunities. After all, the Liberty allowed 22 dimes to the Mystics, which is 10th in the league. As Clark gets more comfortable in the offensive, I expect her assist line to increase to 5-7 as the season progress.

Given she doesn't turn the ball over ten times, this is a steal, especially at -175 odds.

WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #2: JONQUEL JONES (NEW YORK LIBERTY)

JONQUEL JONES SEASON STATS

I have few WNBA props I bet on tonight that revolve around Liberty center Jonquel Jones. One of the most profitable players last season, Jones is healthy and looking in mid-season form. Below are a few props that I would recommend.

Keep in mind, I took these all as straight bets, and keeping my bankroll management in mind.

JONQUEL JONES FANDUEL ODDS

• Over 1.5 3PTM (+178)
• Double Double (-140)
• Over 14.5 points (-125)

Let's face it, Jones rocked her debut against Washington. Now in her second season with New York, she's healthy as ever, and is looking like the MVP player she was in 2021. Leading the way with 25 points, Jones should have another opportunity to feast tonight. This time, against Aliyah Boston and the Indiana Fever.

For the value at +178, I picked Jones to make over 1.5 three-pointers tonight. Hitting this prop in four straight games against Indiana, Jones will face a Fever team who ranked last in three-point percentage last season (37. 5 %). Although one game is a small sample size, Indiana finds themselves at the bottom in perimeter defense.

Whether Jones is matched up with Boston or Smith, her ability to stretch the floor is key. At 6'6 she has the clearance to shoot over anyone, and went 4-8 from deep in her first game.

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JONQUEL JONES  OVER 14.5 POINTS

This leads into why I love Jones to score over 14.5 points today at -125 odds, which is great value. Coming off a colossal 25 point game, the center scored over 14.5 in three of her last four matchups, dating back to last season. Even though Indiana has vastly improved their roster, defense isn't their strength.

She has a combined 33 points in the last two matchups against the Fever, and that's with Smith and Boston in the lineup. Even with Smith elevating her game this season, the Fever allowed DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas, and Brionna Jones to combine for 41 points.

Last year, Indiana ranked 12th in opponent points per game (85.1), and unless proven otherwise, I'm hot on Jonquel Jones player prop points tonight.

JONES WAS A DOUBLE-DOUBLE MACHINE LAST YEAR

Tonight, I took Jonquel Jones to have a double-dobule at -140 odds. An automatic double-double after all-star break last season, Jones started off the year with 25 points and eight rebounds.

With two consecutive double-doubles against Indiana, Jones faces the same team who allowed Alyssa Thomas to grab 10 boards to go along with 13 points.

Playing 33 minutes in her first game, Jones is looking like an early MVP candidate. Expect Smith to have a breakout season, but not so much defensively.

WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #3: SABRINA IONESCU  (NEW YORK LIBERTY)

SABRINA IONESCU  SEASON STATS

This may one of the most popular player props to bet on, besides Clark Clark points.  Sabrina Ionescu was a streaky player last season, and rightfully so with the abundance of talent the Liberty roster has.

Now in her fifth WNBA season, the former Duck is coming off a career-high in three-point percentage (44.8 %). The season leader in three-pointers made, Ionescu gets a prime matchup with the Fever, who mainly kept her in check.

Except, when Ionescu erupted for 34 points, in which I was in attendance for, last July.

SABRINA IONESCU FANDUEL ODDS

• Over 16.5 points (-130)
• Over 22.5 points and assists (-125)

Expected to take a step forward, Ionescu is coming off a 15 point, 34 minute game against Washington. Yes, she struggled from the field, and things got ugly beyond the arc (1-7).

However, I like her chances against the Fever backcourt. I mean, who are we talking about. This is the first woman to ever compete against an NBA legend in three-point shootout.

One of the most prolific shooters in the league, It will be intriguing to see how she shoots the rock against Caitlin Clark and Erica Wheeler.

Even with Ionescu distributing the ball more than I thought, she still put up 15 points last matchup. We are seeing a little more versatility in her game, which should help with player prop scoring points. If you're betting tonight, I'm taking over 16.5 points.