
The WNBA is back, and there are two Commissioner's Cup games on the slate today!
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
The New York Liberty (7-0-3-0 away) are off to their best start in franchise history since 1997 and will face the Washington Mystics (3-5, 2-1 home) on the road tonight. Fresh off a historic win over the Connecticut Sun, New York is a large 12.5 point spread favorite tonight! Although the Mystics had a hot start, they've lost two straight. Now they get the Liberty for the second time in seven days.
For the late-night showdown, the Phoenix Mercury (5-3, 4-1) will host the Golden State Valkyries (2-4, 1-2) for the first time in WNBA history. With stars Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Cooper, the Mercury managed to stay afloat. Fresh off an 88-65 loss against the Minnesota Lynx, they are 6.5 point favorites today. The first WNBA expansion team since the Atlanta Dream in 2008—the Valkyries are riding a two-game skid against the Liberty and Lynx.
Commissioner's Cup matchups are high stakes, with charity, a trophy, and a point differential on the line!
Team vs Team | Moneyline | Spread | Totals |
---|---|---|---|
New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics | -800 / +550 | -12.5 / +12.5 | O/U 163.5 |
Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury | +200 / -250 | +6.5 / -6.5 | O/U 157.5 |
If you're betting on the WNBA matchups today, welcome! With a 5-3 WNBA betting record in June, let's hit the books and stay hot!
The early showdown between the Liberty and Mystics will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET, and will take at CareFirst Arena, located in Washington, DC. Scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET, the Mercury and Valkyries matchup will take place at PHX Arena. With that said, both games will air on Prime Video.
Let's take a look at my three best player prop bets and predictions for the Thursday, June 5 WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchups! In this article you will find a mix of player prop picks from FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook!
*I did not parlay my bets.*
Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here.
GP: 7 | PPG: 17.9 | FG: 43.2 % | FT: 92 % | 3PT: 35.7 % | REB: 4.3 | AST: 4.7| STL: 1.1 | BLK: 0.1
My first bet for today, I placed one unit on New York Liberty star Sabrina Ionescu to record over 2.5 made threes vs the Washington Mystics.
Ionescu has been scorching, recording 18+ points in three straight games. Mind you, Sab scored 18 points in the New York Liberty's 110-52 historic blowout win against the Connecticut Sun. In just 19 minutes, Ionescu shot 6-9 from the field, and 4-6 from the 3-point line.
Amongst an incredibly deep and talented Liberty team, this player prop sticks out to me for a few reasons. Ionescu's shot volume is considerable. Up until last game, she put up back-to-back 16+ shots, and has 32 3-point attempts over the last three games!
There's a reason why Ionescu is the second leading scoring for the Liberty amongst several high profiled players—Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Natasha Cloud (just to name a few). Leading New York with 13.6 field goal attempts, Ionescu tops all roster members with 8.0 3-pointers per game.
Two years removed from the WNBA's top 3-point shooter, Ionescu is averaging 47.7 percent from beyond the arc over the last three games. Not to mention, she's attempting over 10 three balls per game over that span.
This player prop has considerable value, especially since Ionescu ranks second in the WNBA in 3-pointers made per game (20), and fourth in 3-point attempts per game (56).
Now Sabrina Ionescu will face a Mystics team for the second time this season. Less than ten days ago, the Libery defeated the Mystics, 85-63. In the blowout, No. 20 logged 32 minutes, and erupted for 28 points. Shooting 4-11 from deep, Sab simply couldn't be stopped. There were two instances she pulled in the face of rookie Sonia Citron—and Washington simple gave Ionescu too much space.
Let's be real—The Liberty are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the WNBA. They average 31.9 per game, and Ionescu will pull, even when contested. Off screens, in transition—over 75 percent of her shots are assisted this year. With a five-out offensive approach, the extra spacing and double team has created a ton of deep looks for Sab.
Overall, the Mystics surprisingly allow the second lowest 3-point percentage to opponents in the WNBA (27.8 %). Aforementioned in previous articles, they allow the most threes per game (30.1), and rank No. 7 in defensive rating. The backcourt duo of Brittney Sykes and Sonia Citron is nothing to sniff at—there's a ton of talent there. However, this is a Mystics team that allow's 41.5 points to guard per game.
The Mystics have lost their defensive spark as of late. Last matchup, Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell erupted for 24 points on 4-7 3-point shooting. Over the last two games, they've given up a combined 52 points to two separate guards.
GP: 6 | PPG: 12 | FG: 33.3 % | FT: 90.9 % | 3PT: 17.1 % | REB: 6.3 | AST: 1.0 | STL: 2.3 | BLK: 0.3
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Valkyries forward Kayla Thornton to record over 5.5 rebounds against the Phoenix Mercury.
Selected by the Golden State Valkyries in the expansion draft, Thornton was a key factor in the New York Liberty's championship run. Although she earned some starts, Thornton was mainly a spark off the bench. Known for her gritty plays and the ability to hustle—Thornton is now a bona fide starter for Golden State.
Overall, the Valkyries have size, especially with Monique Billings and Temi Fagbenle at 6 foot 4. However, it's Thornton who's been getting the starting nod next to Fanbenle in the frontcourt.
Considered one of the best two-way players in the WNBA, Thornton is averaging 1.7 offensive rebounds per game alone, and is having a career-year on the boards with 6.3 per game. Logging 6+ rebounds in three consecutive games, Thornton has such production against the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.
That'a quite impressive considering Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are some of the most elite forwards in the WNBA.
Soaring over this prop in four straight games, KT is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game. Tonight, she get's a matchup against an ailing Phoenix Mercury team.
The Mercury have a slew of injuries that include Natasha Mack, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. Sure, Phoenix has Satou Sabally, who's been playing lights out. Not to mention, they acquired Kalani Brown in the offseason.
Routed by the Lynx 88-65, Napheesa Collier grabbed 11 rebounds alone. Outrebounded 37-24, the Mercury face a Valkyries team who average the fourth most rebounds per game in the league (36.2).
There's no doubt Thornton's usage percentage has dipped with both Hayes and Billings back in lineup. Even so, she's coming off 27 minutes for Natalie Nakase in the 86-75 loss against the Lynx. Logging 30+ minutes in three of six games, Thornton has yet to fall below the 27 minute threshold.
GP: 6 | PPG: 15.7| FG: 48.5 % | FT: 66.7 % | 3PT: 44.4 % | REB: 11.3 | AST: 3.0| STL: 0.7 | BLK: 1.5
My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Liberty center Jonquel Jones to record over 13.5 points tonight against the Washington Mystics.
As we saw last game, every point counts, and the Liberty secured their largest margin of victory (48 points) in franchise history over the Connecticut Sun. With that, there was a complete balance of scoring among the starters and some bench players.
Averaging 15.7 points on the season, Jones is a crucial part of this Liberty team. Named WNBA Finals MVP last season, Jones is the third leading scorer behind Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
Considered one of the most elite players in the WNBA, Jones is known for her ability to score from inside out. At 6 foot 6, she has the size to bully Kiki Iriafen, Aaliyah Boston, and even Shakira Austin. With Nyara Sabally listed as questionable, Stewart and Jones will continue to hold down the fort in the frontcourt.
In the blowout victory against the Mystics, Jones shot 5-14 from the field, and just 1-6 from deep. I don't expect Jones to have a repeat performance—New York's spacing should leave her open on the perimeter a ton.
From a betting perspective, we've seen the centers perform well against the Mystics all season. Although I will say, Iriafen was locking up A'ja Wilson. Even against the Aces, Wilson finished with 15 points. Against the Sun, Tina Charles erupted for 23 points and Brionna Jones chipped in 16 points for the Dream.
With a high stakes matchup, Jones has the highest usage percentage (25.3 %) since the 2021 season with the Connecticut Sun.
Although this year's Mystics team is vastly different, Jones has a history of shooting the rock against the franchise. Soaring over 13.5 points in 8/9 games against Washington, that's an average of 20 points per game. With the addition of Natasha Cloud, the Liberty added a dangerous playmaker that opens up the floor. Talk about endless pick and rolls.
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