WNBA Player Props Today (June 29): Liberty vs. Aces Commissioner's Cup Best Bets

The Las Vegas Aces will face the New York Liberty for the second time in eight days, with much higher stakes on the line Tuesday night in Brooklyn. The Aces will have more than revenge on their minds from last Tuesday's 87-76 home loss to the Liberty, as the teams will battle for the Commissioner's Cup.

The winning team makes roughly $30,000 per player, while the game's MVP earns an additional $5,000. Players from the losing team take home $10,000 each. This is the second time the teams will meet in the midseason tourney title game, as the Liberty defeated the Aces in the championship.

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Let's take a look at my best prop bets for Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup championship.

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Commissioner's Cup Odds: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces

Here are the odds for Tuesday's game (odds via FanDuel):

Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty

• Spread: Las Vegas Aces +6.5 (-112) | New York Liberty -6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces (+194) | New York Liberty (-245)
• Total: O/U 173.5 (-114/-106)

The Aces arrive in Brooklyn on win streaks of 2-0, 4-1 and 10-2 dating back to the end of May. Since May 31, they have the fifth-highest scoring offense with 90.5 points per game. In that span, they're shooting .486 from the floor, second-best in the WNBA, while their .379 clip from 3-point range is fourth best in the league.

The Liberty, meanwhile, return home mired in a 1-4 slide since June 19, including shocking losses to the Washington Mystics and at the Seattle Storm. The skid follows an eight-game win streak, and should be alarming since they're back in Brooklyn after four games in eight days on the West Coast and only one day to recover.

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WNBA Best Bets: Commissioner's Cup Player Props

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Chelsea Gray OVER 6.5 Assists (-146)

If you're giving me a choice of any point guard in the league with a one-and-done title on the line, I'm taking Chelsea Gray all day without a hitch. Gray is a big-game performer, and with the Liberty likely tired after their road trip, it makes me wonder if the backcourt will be able to contain Gray. They certainly won't alter her vision of the court, as she's the smartest point guard in the league.

Gray ranks fourth in the W with 7.4 assists per game, but over her last six games, she's averaging 8.5 per contest, including three games she had nine helpers. She's also dished seven or more assists in 12 of 19 games this season.

Jonquel Jones OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-112)

The former league MVP ranks seventh in the league with 8.7 rebounds per game, and if A'ja Wilson cancels out Breanna Stewart in another epic battle, it opens the door for Jonquel Jones to break out the Windex. Granted, Aces forward NaLyssa Smith is no pushover, but Jones has nine or more rebounds in eight games this season, including six with 10 or more.

For her career, Jones averages 9.0 rebounds per game against the Aces. That number upticks to 9.3 if you only look at her 10 regular-season games against them, since she joined the Liberty in 2023. And if you'd like to take it a step further, Jones is averaging 10.1 rebounds per game in the same span, when the Liberty host the Aces.

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 2.5 3-pointers (+154)

Sabrina Ionescu didn't make her season debut until May 24, and it took some time for her to find her shooting touch. In her first five games, she averaged 7.4 points on .318 shooting. That includes a .277 clip while hitting five from 3-point range. But over her last three games, she's averaging 13 points per contest on .382 shooting, and once again hit five 3-pointers.

In 16 career regular-season games against the Aces, Ionescu is hitting .364 from 3-point range. In nine home games against Las Vegas, regardless of regular season or playoffs, she is shooting .347 from 3-point range. We've yet to see an Ionescu-type breakout game since her season debut, and with so much at stake in this one, it makes sense this is the game she delivers big numbers.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.