As the WNBA season wraps up, there are three games on the slate. Looking to bet on WNBA props and the best bets for Tuesday? You're in the correct spot! Let's break down the matchups tonight, and the potential best value amongst the games.
(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Minnesota Lynx (26-9, 11-6 away) will travel on the road to matchup against the Atlanta Dream (12-23, 7-10 home).
- One game out of the 8th and final WNBA playoff seed, the Dream have continued to struggle, winning just four of their last 10 games.
Fresh off a 104-100 loss against the Indiana Fever, they have five games remaining to sneak into the playoffs. If you've been wagering on WNBA player props, it's guard Rhyne Howard, who's genuinely been sensational for this team down the stretch.
- The last matchup was tough for Dream bettors, who saw a 16-point lead dissipate against the Fever in the second half.
Heading into this matchup, the Lynx are -4.5 point underdogs in the road, and clinched a playoff berth. Settled in as the second seed behind the Liberty, New York seems to be in full control of the top seed.
- With three straight victories, the Lynx are 9-1 over the last 10 games. Behind three games, it will be an extraordinary task to take the top seed from New York.
There Are 3 Games On The WNBA Slate
Speaking of New York, the Liberty (26-6, 13-4 away) will face the Dallas Wings (9-26, 7-10 home) on the road for their third matchup of the season. With Betnijah Laney avoiding serious injury, the guard does remain questionable for tonight's matchup. Heavy -9.5 favorites tonight, New York will look to extend the Wings four game losing skid.
For the late night action, the Los Angeles Sparks (7-28, 5-12 home) will host the Connecticut Sun at home. Officially eliminated from WNBA playoff contention, the Sparks are winless over the last four games, and have just one win over the last 10. Large favorites, Sun bettors will once again look to cover the sizeable point spread for the second consecutive game.
WNBA Odds Are Current As of September 10 at 8 A.M. ET
If you're betting on tonight's WNBA games, I've gathered my best WNBA prop bets, along with spread bets for tonight's game. With odds always compared within legal sportsbooks, I've placed all bets within FanDuel. Although I don't love the slate tonight, I've placed wagers on the props I believe will bring us in the green.
With the Lynx vs. Dream matchup set to tip off at 7:30 P.M. ET, it will air on NBA TV/WNBA League pass. Slated to begin at 8 P.M. ET, the Liberty and Dream game will air on CBS Sports Network. With final tip off beginning at 10 P.M. ET, you can find the matchup between the Sun and Sparks on WNBA League Pass.
- If you're betting on the WNBA, I currently have a record of 142-117 on the year.
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WNBA Props For Tuesday, September 10
WNBA Player Prop Bet #1: Breanna Stewart
Breanna Stewart Season Stats
PPG: 20.3 | FG: 45.7 % | FT: 84.3 % | 3PT %: 28.6 | REB: 8.7 | AST: 3.8 | STL: 1.8 | BLK: 1.4
- Over 21.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
One WNBA prop bet that I love tonight is New York Liberty star Breanna Stewart to score over 21.5 points for -118 odds against the Dallas Wings. 20.5 was preferred, however I'm rolling with the 21.5 tonight.
Although a slight regression in point scored from her MVP season, Stewart is the main catalyst behind this team's offensive and defensive production. Averaging 20.3 points per game, yes the prop line is slightly over the season average. However, considering the matchup, I'll gladly take the over for -118 odds.
- Post WNBA All-Star break,
Stewart
has found more consistency in her scoring, and that includes the three-point shots.
There's no question the trey ball simply wasn't falling prior to the Olympic break, shooting just 27 percent from downtown. However, there's been a drastic difference in production post break, hitting well over 43 % from deep, averaging 22.5 points per game.
- Under coach Sandy Brondello, we've seen a major increase in field goal attempts (16.8) post Olympics, that's with decreased minutes. Don't worry, Stewart retains heavy minutes on the hardwood, averaging 34.1 in September.
Contrary to last year, Stewart's been far more productive on the scoring end on the road, putting up 21.9 points, on 52.3 percent field goal shooting, and 35.6 percent from deep.
If you break it down, Stewart's shooting percentage margins are quite large when comparing home and road play production. Shooting just 39.6 percent from the floor at Barclays Center, the former Husky has a +12.7 % shot percent margin difference on the road.
This Prop line Hit in 7 Of Last 9 Vs Dallas
In addition, the former MVP has a +12.6 % three-point shot margin in road games. Why that is, I can't answer. All I know, is that Stewart is backed by some of the loudest and most energized fans in the WNBA in Brooklyn.
With five games remaining in the regular WNBA season, the Liberty aim to retain the one seed. That means, if Laney-Hamilton is out, coach Brondello will need her absolute best from Stewart. Now, we know she doesn't always impact the game as we see in the box score, and that's okay.
- From a betting perspective, she's cooked up against the Wings. Averaging 22.5 points in two home games against Dallas, Stewart is over the prop line, and that's hitting an abysmal 30 % from the field and downtown.
This bet is slightly risky, considering Stewart tallied 21 points against the Aces and 14 vs. the Storm over the last two games. Normally, I would fade the over, especially since she's hit the over in just four of ten games, however, let's continue to break down the matchup with Dallas.
Last matchup, Stewart put up 19 points on 5-18 and 0-3 three-point shooting. Yes, she did tally heavy minutes, however, she was once again the leading scorer for the Liberty. Just one game prior, she torched the Wings for 26 points, on 7-22 shooting.
- Once again the scoring leader for the Liberty, Stewie hit these totals, and that was with her struggling from the floor. The key will involve trips to the charity stripe, which she's averaging 11 per game against them on the season.
Final WNBA Player Prop Betting Prediction: Breanna Stewart O 21.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
Sizzling hot post all-star break, dating back to 2022, Stewarts cleared over her point prop line in seven of the last nine games against Dallas. Sure Satou Sabally is back in the lineup, along with Natasha Howard, and Teaira McCowan.
Even though they possess a larger lineup, Dallas remains the worst defensive team, allowing over 90 points per game. With McCowan likely to stick on Jonquel Jones, it's the automatic mid range jumper from Stewart. It's the fact Dallas allows the most points in the paint with 41 per game.
- As the Liberty aim for the 3oth win of the season, I'll take the matchup and lay the points with Stewart against Sabally and the Wings.
It's not a question of shot volume, it's a question of shooting percentages.
- I'll ride the hot hand, especially for a player that's shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc and putting up 24 points over the last five games.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #2: Alyssa Thomas
Alyssa Thomas Season Stats
PPG: 10.6 | FG: 50.7 % | FT: 61.7 % | 3PT %: 0 | REB: 8.7 | AST: 7.7 | STL: 1.7 | BLK: 0.5
- Over 10.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)
Tonight, I'm taking Connecticut Sun guard
Alyssa Thomas
to score over 10.5 points for -130 odds against the Los Angeles Sparks. Yes, this prop is a little juiced, however, I there isn't a strong slate tonight. Therefore, I'm laying the points with one of the better matchups of the night.
If you're betting on the WNBA, Thomas is the engine of the offense, although the addition of Mabrey and evolution of Diojnai Carrington has taken the load of her shoulders. Plus the return of Brionna Jones has completely changed the landscape of this Sun offense.
- For those who don't know, Thomas plays a point forward position, often slashing to the basket and dishing the ball out. Due to injuries in both rotator cuffs, more often than not, you'll see Alyssa Thomas fighting her way to an and-one opportunity.
Scoring over 10.5 points in 9 of the last 10 games against the Sparks, I love this matchup for several reasons. Not matched up with your typical point guard, it will be whoever can simply stop her. Coming off he 11th triple-double of the season, Thomas finished with 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists.
On the road against the Sparks, Thomas had 11 field goal attempts, including 5 trips to the charity stripe. After two consecutive losses, including a blown lead against the Aces, it's Thomas who took matters into her own hands.
This WNBA Prop Line Cleared The Over In 9 Of 10 Game Vs Sparks
- Tonight, Thomas gets another prime matchup with the Sparks who allow the fifth most trips to the free-throw line (18.3 per game), and third most opponent points per game (86.4).
- Allowing the second most paint points in the WNBA (38.9), Thomas should have another field day. That's if head coach Stephanie White allows her too.
Last matchup, no one could truly stop Thoomas. Not Dearica Hamby, Rae Burrell, nor Azura Stevens. Lethal in the pick and roll or in transition, Thomas barrels over players, and I'm not exaggerating.
Not only is she stronger than most, she's more resliant. One of the most physical players in the league, look for her to get plenty of scoring opportunities tonight.
- If you look at the overall stats, Thomas has eclipsed 10.5 points or more in just one of the last five matchups.
Even worse, just four times in the last ten games.
- Games with 8, 4, and 7 points would entice a bettor to place a wager on the under.
However, you simply have to look at the matchup tonight, her history against the Sparks, and production on the road. Similar to Stewart, Thomas is putting up 11.6 points on the road, +1.9 more than home games. In addition, he field goal and free-throw percentages are well more efficient on the road.
Final WNBA Player Prop Betting Prediction: Alyssa Thomas O 10.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)
Although her most productive scoring months were in May and June, expect Thomas to be heavily involved in this game. A difference maker on the glass, and defense, the Sun are just one game out from the second seed.
If you are placing bets on the WNBA, do I think Thomas will lead the Sun in scoring? No. However, she'll have plenty of opportunities to gather points against a Sparks team thats injury riddled and terrible on the defensive end. While we saw Thomas push the pace during the Olympics, the Sparks allow the the ninth most fast break points per game. I'll lay the points with Alyssa Thomas tonight.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #3: Courtney Vandersloot
Courtney Vandersloot Season Stats
PPG: 6.7 | FG: 44.4 % | FT: 53.7 % | 3PT %: 29.5 | REB: 2.7| AST: 5.0 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.4
- Over 4.5 assists (-130 FanDuel)
For my final WNBA prop bet, I've placed a unit for Liberty guard
Courtney Vandersloot
to dish out over 4.5 assists agains the Dallas Wings tonight. Although another slightly juiced prop, I'm taking this line, which is under the season assists average.
Overall, Vandersloots number's are slightly flawed, especially missing over a month due to a personal issue. However, she's the true floor general of this team, and she's hit the over in six straight matchups against the Wings.
If you're unsure about this prop, Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu have certainly split the facilitating duties this year. However, if Laney-Hamilton is ruled out, Brondello will want more minutes from Vandersloot and Ionescu in the backcourt.
- Averaging 4.8 assists on the road this season, I do believe most sportsbooks will increase this prop to at least 5.5 assists.
- Tonight, Sloot gets the Wings again, who allow a league worst 22.9 assists per game.
While the Wings don't have much to play for, the Liberty have a ton of talent alongside Vandersloot. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Kayla Thornton, you name it. And that doesn't include the strong bench behind Brondello.
- Averaging 8.5 dimes in two games against Dallas, that's double of what the prop line is set tonight.
- Dishing out 6.0 and 11.0 against the Wings this season, there's zero reason for me to believe Vandersloot won't be heavily involved in the offense tonight.
Although I'm a huge fan of Arike Ogunbowale, the Wings simply don't have the players, especially in the backcourt to keep up with Vandersloot and Ionescu.
Final WNBA Player Prop Betting Prediction: Courtney Vandersloot O 4.5 Assists (-130 FanDuel)
Overall, Vandersloot is a speedy guard who will take it to the basketball and kick it out. One of the best floor generals in the league, I'm not fading a veteran guard who's cleared the assist line in six straight games against the Wings.
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