The Connecticut Sun hopes to live to fight another day while the Minnesota Lynx eye their first finals appearance since the Maya Moore era as they collide in Game 4 of their best-of-five WNBA semifinals series this Sunday at Mohegan Sun Arena.
(Photo by Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)
Only averaging 14 points in the first two games, forward Napheesa Collier exploded for 26 points and 11 rebounds to put the Lynx a win away from the finals.
- Minnesota opened as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 3 and more than covered the spread with a nine-point victory.
- However, the Lynx are still the 1.5-point underdogs heading into Game 4 as per the latest Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx betting lines.
Will the Lynx prove the oddsmakers wrong and punch their first finals ticket in seven years or will the Sun force a rubber match?
That remains to be seen but as of press time, here’s an in-depth look at both teams as we head into a game that could go down to the wire.
Sun
vs Lynx
DraftKings
WNBA Playoff
Odds for
October 6
Moneyline
- Connecticut Sun: -120
- Minnesota Lynx: +100
Spread
- Connecticut Sun: -1.5 (-110)
- Minnesota Lynx: +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (Total)
- OVER 153.5 (-110)
- UNDER 153.5 (-110)
Connecticut Sun
vs
Minnesota Lynx
Injury Report
Connecticut Sun Injury Report
- Tiffany Mitchell – Illness – Out
Minnesota Lynx Injury Report
Best WNBA Playoff odds for
Connecticut Sun
vs
Minnesota Lynx
- The Connecticut Sun have defeated the Minnesota Lynx three times this season. The best Connecticut Sun odds to win outright are available on Caesars Sportsbook for a solid price of -115
- The Minnesota Lynx have beaten the Connecticut Sun in the last two games by an average margin of eight points. DraftKings offers the best price for the Lynx to cover the +1.5 spread at -110.
- The under hit in the past three games between the Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx. The best Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx odds for the under market total are available on Caesars Sportsbook at -110.
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Why will the
Connecticut Sun
cover the spread?
A slow first quarter start doomed the Connecticut Sun’s hopes of regaining the series lead as they found themselves playing catch-up against the potent Minnesota Lynx offense.
But it’s not all doom and gloom in the Sun’s camp as a few things went right for them, which is why bookmakers have the home team as the 1.5-point favorite in Game 4.
- Connecticut’s starters showed up in Game 3 as they all finished in double digits with forward Brionna Jones leading the way with 21 points, five assists, and four rebounds.
- The Sun were also able to out-rebound the Lynx 33-29, which led to 13 second chance opportunities.
- If that’s not good enough, Connecticut were also aggressive in drawing fouls, leading to 23 shots from the stripe.
So, one might ask what went wrong in Game 3. Well, it was similar to Game 2 where the Sun found themselves falling in love with the three-point shot.
Connecticut, which only made five of their 20 shots from three in Game 2, shot even worse in Game 3, only making three for 20 from downtown.
Bench scoring was also an issue for Connecticut in Game 3 as they only got four points from their reserves.
Should Connecticut address those issues and get the same offensive production from their starters, there could be value on the home team to cover the -1.5 spread at -110 and force a deciding Game 5.
Why will the
Minnesota Lynx
cover the spread?
Had it not been for their late-game collapse in Game 1, the Minnesota Lynx would’ve been in the WNBA Finals right now.
Fortunately, the Lynx were able to make the necessary adjustments in Games 2 and 3 to put themselves a win away from the finals.
- Minnesota’s perimeter defense was in full display in the past two games as they forced the Connecticut Sun to only make a combined eight for 40 in the three-point area, which is good for 20%.
- Even more impressive is the fact that the Lynx were able to force the Sun to miss nine consecutive shots from behind the arc at one point in Game 3.
- Versatile forward Napheesa Collier also regained her old form in Game 3 after struggling in the first two games of the series, notching a double-double.
- Minnesota also got solid contributions from their reserves as they outscored Connecticut’s bench 16-4.
For a deep dive into WNBA odds and game predictions, check out our
WNBA betting section.
Lynx Moneyline a sneaky good bet if they clean up on defense and boards
With Minnesota in high spirits and Collier regaining her shooting touch back, backing the Lynx to cover the spread and even potentially win outright could offer a significant value for punters looking for a value bet on the favorite.
- One thing Minnesota has to do here though is to learn to play defense without fouling and avoid giving away second chance opportunities.
The Lynx not only found themselves losing the rebounding battle in Game 3 but they also gave up 23 free throws to Connecticut, which made the most of their opportunities from the stripe.
Should Minnesota address those issues and get similar production from Collier, they could walk away with a dominant victory here, making the +100 moneyline bet a potential steal.
Final
Sun
vs Lynx
WNBA Playoff Prediction: Minnesota Lynx ML (+100) Under 153.5 (-110)
Since their unprecedented collapse in Game 1, the Minnesota Lynx have completely reinvented themselves, especially on the defensive end on the floor and that could be key in potentially winning the series here.
While the Connecticut Sun are playing at home and should be buoyed by the crowd to force a deciding Game 5, the Lynx are just a team they cannot beat right now.
- The free points are attractive but I am taking a riskier play and going with Minnesota to win outright.
Another play I am looking at here is the under at -110. With defense being the name of the game of this series, expect both teams to tighten the screws even more here. It is worth noting that the under hit in the last six encounters between the Sun and the Lynx.
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