We are in the thick of the WNBA Semi-Final Playoff matchups, and tonight marks game 3 between the
Minnesota Lynx
(30-10, 14-6 away) and the Connecticut Sun (28-12, 14-6 home). With the series split 1-1, the series will now move to the Sun's home court. 2.5 point favorites tonight, the Sun stunned bettors with a 73-70 game-one victory in Minnesota.
(Photo by Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images)
With their backs against the wall, Minnesota came away with the 77-70 game 2 victory against the Sun. 4.5 point-spread favorites, the Lynx defense showed out, limiting Connecticut to just 36.4 % shooting from the floor and 25 % from deep range.
Although the core four (DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas, DiJonai Carrington, and Marina Mabrey) all finished with points in double figures, it was a rough shooting day. With the Sun starters shooting just 22-59 (37 %) from the field, center Brionna Jones received an abysmal three-shot attempts.
With the Sun bench providing minimal offensive output, the Lynx defensive ability is what's kept this team afloat all year long.
Given Lynx star Napheesa Collier mightly struggled with nine points on 3-14 shooting from the field, it's been the story and success if the bench and role players for head coach Cheryl Reeve. With depth on their side, the Lynx have one of the most complete teams in the WNBA playoffs. I do want to say hats off to Collier, who finished with four blocks on the night.
Favored to win the WNBA finals, behind the Liberty with +460 odds, the Lynx are current slight favorites to win the semi-final playoff series vs the Sun with -110 odds. In a best-of-five matchups, the next two games will be held in Connecticut. As I predicted, will this series make it to five games?
WNBA Odds Are Current As of October 4 at 9 A.M. ET
With a WNBA betting record of 172-141 on the season, I'm here to bring you the best player prop bets, predictions, and analysis for tonight's matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and the
Connecticut Sun.
Providing three of my best player bets, my goal is to keep the units up, and keep the coin flowing. Although the WNBA playoffs can truly be a tough time to make bets, I'll be here all playoffs long to give you my best picks for each game.
If you're betting on the Lynx and Sun matchup today, tip-off will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. Set to air on ESPN 2, the matchup will take place at Mohegan Sun Arena, located in Uncasville, CT.
Let's take a look into my top player prop bets for the Lynx vs Sun game.
Are you looking to bet on the WNBA Playoffs between the Lynx and Sun? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete
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WNBA Playoff Player Props: Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun For Friday, October 4
WNBA Player Prop Bet #1: Bridget Carleton
Bridget Carleton Playoff Stats
PPG: 12.5 | FG: 59.3 % | FT:90 % | 3PT : 50 % | REB: 3.5 | AST: 2.0 | STL: 1.3 | BLK: 0.0
- 10+ points (-120 FanDuel)
My first player prop bet for the Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun game, I bet on
Bridge Carleton
to score 10+ point vs the Sun. A colossal part of the Lynx success on the season, Carleton has had a career year. Putting up the most points of her career (9.6), the forward is shooting the best from downtown since the 2020 season with Minnesota. A full time start for head coach Cheryl Reeve, she's quickly become a dependable and consistent scorer as of late for the Lynx.
It's clear Carleton has taken a huge leap in the WNBA playoffs as far as her offensive production, scoring more the three points more than the regular season. Tallying hefty minutes, Carleton is coming off a nine point performance against the Sun in game 2.
Don't let that number fool you. The current prop line is set at 10 points, which is 2.5 points less than what the forward is averaging in the WNBA playoffs. For the odds and the point line total, I'm all in on this today.
Bridget Carleton Is The Lynx Ultimate X-Factor
Mentioned previously in my articles, how can we forget that Carleton cold blooded three to secure game 1 vs the Phoenix Mercury in the first-round? A viable threat from beyond the arc, Carleton has been fantastic, hitting over 50 percent from deep in the post season. Now, the Iowa State alumni get's another shot against Connecticut, whom she tallied 17 points against in game 1.
One aspect of coach Reeve I like is that she trusts her players. From the olympics, to the WNBA, Carleton is the ultimate x-factor on the offensive end, especially if Collier is bottled up. As we saw in game 1, Carleton had 10 shot attempts, which is a good amount, and finished a team best 3-6 from the three-point line.
Although I do expect this to be another defensive matchup, ten points isn't asking a lot.
Carleton’s scoring prop a strong bet with consistent three-point shooting
Averaging 11.5 points over the last ten games, Carleton's line has fluctuated anywhere from 8.5 to 10.5 points. Hitting over her player prop line in seven of the last ten games, I think it's safe to say we can get 10 tonight.
One of the main reasons why I love this WNBA playoff player prop is Carleton is a shooter, and is finishing from a high clip beyond the arc. Averaging just over two three-pointers made in the playoffs, that's six points alone. Putting up an average of 13 points in two games against Connecticut, Carleton saw a ton of looks behind the perimeter in game 1.
Six attempts to be exact, she's a player to always fall back on, especially if guards Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams are struggling to shoot the rock.
Final WNBA Playoff betting prediction: Bridget Carleton 10+ points (-120 FanDuel)
Overall, this is a player prop that's hit 55 percent of the WNBA season. A prolific threat from downtown, Carleton has 16 field goal attempts from the 22-27 foot range in the playoffs. Don't let the three-point stats fool you, the 6'1 forward excels in the mid range pull up, especially around screens.
As we saw in game 1 vs the Sun, Carleton had a quick seven points in the first quarter, and was extremely aggressive in driving to the basket.
If you look at the matchup, there were several instances Sun guard Marina Mabrey simple couldn't get out on the perimeter to contest Carleton. Although unsure if Mabrey is starting for the Sun, we are just seeing the tip of what Carleton can do on the offensive end.
Often times, defenses collapse, leaving perimeter shooters wide open. Similar to several teams, Carleton can absolutely be a game changer, especially if Collier is doubled inside. Great at playing inside out basketball with Collier, she's not afraid to shoot. A monumental part of the Lynx Commissioner Cup title, look for Bridget Carleton to hit over the 10+ points player prop total today.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #2: Alyssa Thomas
Alyssa Thomas Playoff Stats
PPG: 16.5 | FG: 51.7 % | FT: 85.7 % | 3PT : 0 % | REB: 8.8 | AST: 10.5 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.0
- Over 23.5 points and assists (-106 FanDuel)
My second player prop for the WNBA playoffs, I bet on Sun guard
Alyssa Thomas
to record over 23.5 points and assists. If you want to get real spicy, I sprinkled half a unit for the guard to record a triple double for +475 odds on DraftKings.
It's clear Alyssa Thomas is a huge part of the Sun's success, and her production in the playoffs has been vastly different from the regular season. Averaging nearly 16.5 points per game, she's clocked up the intensity, the production, and I am here for it. Putting up a double-double in the playoffs, and approaching nearly a triple-double, this line is lower then what her averages have been. For that reason, I'll take the over for -106 odds on FanDuel.
Alyssa Thomas' points and assists prop a must-back in semi-finals
Sure, the Lynx defense is elite, holding the Sun to 70 points for the second straight game. However, the Sun wouldn't be where they are at without Thomas. Tallying two consecutive double-doubles, it's been Thomas who's coming off an 18 point, 10 rebound, and seven assist night against the Lynx.
Although I slightly like Thomas's points and rebounds more, not one sportsbook in my area offered this. Hitting well over 23.5 points and assists the first two games of the semi-final playoffs, i'll take the over again.
Although the Lynx defense is primarily powered by Collier and Alanna Smith in the front court, can anyone truly stop Alyssa Thomas. One of the most physical players in the league, Thomas time and time again runs through players to finish at the basket. Putting up 35 points in the semi-finals, the former Maryland guard has tallied 26 dimes against the Lynx in games 1 and 2.
Final WNBA Playoff betting prediction: Alyssa Thomas over 23.5 points and assists (-106 FanDuel)
Since Thomas can't shoot far due to her bilateral shoulder injuries, most of her shots will come between the 0-5 and 5-10 foot range. Crucial in the pick and roll game with fiancé DeWanna Bonner, she loves to take contact from any opposing player.
Unstoppable in game 1 in the pick and roll game, no player could guard Thomas. That includes Hines-Allen, Alanna Smith, and simply has more physical strength than most of the players on the court.
Often giving Thomas room beyond the restricted area, I do believe we will see Thomas put up shots from free-throw distance. Although passing up those shots quite a bit at times, it's easy points for Thomas. As we've seen in previous game, not even Collier could stop Thomas as full speed.
As far as assists, the addition of Marina Mabrey has added much needed shooting and offense for the Sun. Excellent in driving and kicking,
Hitting the over points and assist totals in three of four games vs the Lynx, expect Thomas to continue to hot hand tonight.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #3: Marina Mabrey
Marina Mabrey Playoff Stats
PPG: 19.3 | FG: 91.7 % | FT: 91.7 % | 3PT : 39 % | REB: 3.3 | AST: 3.5 | STL: 0.3 | BLK: 1.0
- O 1.5 3PTM (-146 FanDuel)
My third player prop of today, I bet on Marina Mabrey to tally over 1.5 three-pointers for -146 odds against the Lynx. Traded to Connecticut for added scoring depth, Mabrey certainly hasn't disappointed. One of the most aggressive players in the league, Mabrey isn't afraid to pull the rock. Whether it's a pull up shot, in transition, or off screens, Mabrey is that "dog" that every WNBA needs. Now she brings that mentality into game 3 vs the Lynx.
With a season average of just over 14 points, Mabrey split her time with the Sky and the Sun. With increasing confidence and intensity in the playoffs, she's been the ultimate x-factor the Sun so badly needed. Averaging over 19 points this postseason, Mabrey is shooting just under 40 percent from three-point range.
Mabrey's deep shooting key against Sun, but don’t expect another 27-point night
With that said, the Lynx certainly won't allow Mabrey to score 27 points, which was her playoff-career high against the Indiana Fever in game 1. However, she's found success agains the Sun, getting eight looks from deep in game 2. Although going just 2-8 from downtown, Mabrey finished 6-11 from beyond the arc in game 1.
Marina Mabrey Is The "Dog" The Sun Badly Needed
One of the leaders in shot volume, this is what head coach Stephanie White is looking for. When the offense is bottled up by the Lynx front court, kick out to Mabrey. Even if contested, the Sun guard will pull it.
I do firmly believe this player prop three-point line is way too low, and wouldn't be surprised if it increased throughout the day. The leading scorer for the Sun in the 2024 WNBA playoffs, the guard is averaging 4.0 three-pointers alone in two games vs the Lynx. Why this is set at 1.5 is beyond me. Along with all of my player prop bets, this is a perfect example of why I like to grab the lines early.
Final WNBA Playoff betting prediction: Marina Mabrey O 1.5 3PTM (-146 FanDuel)
With 41 three-point attempts in the playoffs, that's the points of Mabrey's career. With that said, that averages out to 10.25 deep shot attempts per game, so you do the math. With a 77 percent hit rate on the season, Mabrey has splashed over 1.5 three-pointers made in all of the playoff games, including in ten consecutive games.
With as great ball movement as the Sun have, Mabrey will throw it up from the logo at the buzzer, especially with that quick of a release. Once Mabrey get's going, there's hardly stopping her. Look for Bonner or Jones to set plenty of screens for Mabrey. After all, there should be fired up after that scuffle with Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier.
Bottom line, I'm not fading Mabrey. She was traded to the Sun to win, and their window is closing quickly. Look for Mabrey to get at least 2-3 three-pointers minimum up tonight against the Lynx. This is an extremely strong player, and one of my favorite player props tonight.
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