The WNBA playoffs have certainly met and exceeded expectations for bettors, and we have a game 5 matchup between the
Connecticut Sun
(28-12, 14-6 away) and the
Minnesota Lynx
(30-10, 16-4 home). In a best-of-five Semi-Final series, the Sun forced a game 5 after an exhilarating 92-82 come-from-behind victory against the Lynx Sunday. Now, with a chance to head to the WNBA Finals for the second time in two years, the Sun find themselves as +4.5 point underdogs on the road.
This is a veteran Sun team that has faced elimination before. In a must-win game, it was guard Ty Harris who played the game of her life. Leading the Sun with 20 points, playing heavy minutes after suffering a past ankle injury was crucial for Connecticut. While it was the DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas show in the third and fourth quarters, Harris could not be denied.
In transition or on the fast break, the Sun guard finished 4-5 from beyond the arc and provided a much-needed offensive spark for Connecticut.
With that said, it's highly unlikely the Sun will repeat their shooting performance, in which they shot over 53 percent from both the field and the three-point line. Post game, head coach Stephanie White surely believes the Lynx will adjust. After all, these are the top two defensive teams in the WNBA.
While Napheesa Collier was the backbone behind the Lynx offense, putting up 29 points is quite a possibility. With more depth around her, it will ultimately come down to the three-ball, and which bench will outperform the other.
The Winner Of Game 5 Will Move Onto The WNBA Finals
As we saw in game 4, the Sun changed the narrative in the second half, dominating in the paint, as well as the rebounds. Limiting the Lynx to just 13 third quarter points, can this Sun defense continue to ride momentum and show out for an additional 40 minutes? This will be an extremely challenging task for Connecticut, who's declared victory twice this year in Minnesota.
Overall, this is a very close series, with unique trends. While the first two games were extremely low scoring, games 3 and 4 were mainly offensive matchups. For that reason, I've stayed away from the total.
One victory from advancing to the WNBA Finals, the Lynx were 1-2 vs Connecticut during the regular season. With four championships, the Lynx look to reach the finals for the first time since the 2017 season. With the Sun knocking at the door year after year, Connecticut is looking for their first championship in WNBA history.
In this article, I will break down the current odds, along with best betting predictions for tonight's game 5 matchup between the Lynx and the Sun.
Odds Are Current As Of October 8 AT 8 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on the WNBA playoffs, you're in the best hands. As an WNBA expert and reporter, I will provide my best predictions and bets for today's game. For game 5, tip-off will begin at 8 p.m. ET. Set to air on ESPN2, one of these teams will advance to play the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals.
Connecticut will enter this game as the underdogs for the third time of the semi-final playoff series. On the road, can they get it done? Or will Minnesota's defense speak their championship hopes into existence? With the matchup set to take place at Target Center, the Lynx get home court advantage, where've they only endured six regular season losses.
Are you looking to bet on the WNBA Playoff between the Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete
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WNBA Playoffs Game 5: Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx FanDuel Odds For October 8
MONEYLINE
- CONNECTICUT SUN: -200
- MINNESOTA LYNX: +160
SPREAD
- CONNECTICUT SUN: +4.5 (-110)
- MINNESOTA LYNX: -4.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 151.5 (-106)
- UNDER: 151.5 (-114)
Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report
SUN
- Tiffany Mitchell, Guard: Out (Ilness)
LYNX
WNBA Playoffs Game 5: Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota LynxBest Bets For Tuesday, October 8
WNBA Best Spread Bet: Connecticut Sun (+4.5 FanDuel)
When it comes to the WNBA playoffs, there's no surprise the Connecticut Sun are underdogs once again on the road. If you're betting on either team, both the Sun and the Lynx have a 1-1 record in home and away games. While I do see some slight benefit to having home court advantage, today's game will come down to so much more than just that.
If you bet on the WNBA, we can't forget the Sun's 73-70 upset victory on the road game 1 vs the Lynx. And in game 3, the Lynx knocked Connecticut right off their home court, 90-81. While I expect these games to be relatively low scoring, the pace of play is a crucial x-factor to why some of the matchups have been slightly higher scoring.
With that said, I chose to veer away from the totals tonight. Set at 151.5 points, game 5 matchups can be extremely hard to predict. In my opinion, either this matchup will be high scoring, similar to game 4, or a defensive low scoring affair right up until the end.
Let's break down and analyze why each team can cover the spread, as I will give my final thoughts and predictions for game 5.
Why The Connecticut Sun Can Cover The Spread
Having opened up at four point underdogs, this line hasn't moved too much. While I do believe Connecticut can cover the spread, I expected the point margin to be slimmer than 4.5 points. With the spread split 2-2 evenly on the series, it's the Sun who covered twice. Once as +3.5 point underdogs in game 1 on the road, and -2.5 favorites at home in game 3. And yet again, the Sun are given an opportunity to win game 5 in the same situation as game 1.
The Sun are a sneaky good team, and continue to be a team that flies under the radar. 6-4 vs the Lynx straight up in the last ten meetings, the Sun have been underdogs several times against Minnesota this year. Along with the playoffs, Connecticut were oddly enough 3.5 point underdogs in their 78-73 road victory back in July.
To sum this all up, Connecticut knows how to win on the road in Minnesota, and it doesn't phase them one bit. Having been present for game 3, DeWanna Bonner touched upon the mental approach heading into games and staying calm. This is my best bet for today's matchup.
The Sun Overcame A 15 Point Deficit In Game 3
Although the Sun had a record of 18-22 against the spread during the season, they are 3-2 ATS in the last five games, including a 3-2-1 ATS record in the playoffs. Heavily favored in the first round against Indiana, it's been a different story against the Lynx. With both teams both evenly matched, we are dissecting the two best defenses in the league. I'm talking about a Sun and Lynx team, who held opponents to 73.6 and 75.6 points per game.
One of the reasons why I have the Sun covering the spread is their defense. Knowing they have to be better than the last game, we saw what Connecticut was capable of in those final two quarters of game 3. Outscored 50-43 in the first half, the Lynx were limited to just 13 points in the third quarter. Outscoring the Lynx 49-32 in the second half, this was a completely different looking squad after halftime.
DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas Have Intense Chemistry
Speaking of defense, the Sun held the Lynx to 10-29 (34.5 %) from the field, and just 1-12 (8.3 %) from three in the second half of Sunday's game. Excellent on the switches and keeping up in the paint, Connecticut's defense truly showed out. Aside from Napheesa Collier's 15 second half points, not one Lynx player scored points in double figures. Then again, the Sun allowed the lowest three-point percentage of any team in the WNBA. Forcing six turnovers, the Sun responded on the offensive end, which is another reason why I love them to cover tonight.
Going back to game 3, the Sun had a rough first quarter, only putting up 15 points. Tallying 77 points through the next three quarters, the Sun showed a reason why they are the team to lay the points with. For a team that's been fairly average on the offensive end all season, put up 53 points in two quarters against Minnesota. Not to knock the Indiana Fever, but it's not as though the Sun are playing a team who can't contain defenses. The Lynx are forceful, aggressive, and physical.
They make Connecticut work just to get a bucket. And once the Sun regained the lead, they continued to capitalize on momentum. It was at that point where the Lynx couldn't stop anyone. Not Alyssa Thomas nor DeWanna Bonner.
Seeing Connecticut dominate in that fashion was simply eye opening to me. What truly makes Minnesota the large underdogs, home court advantage? The Sun have proven time and time again they belong. Underdogs, favorites, on the road or at home, this team knows how to compete.
Why the Connecticut Sun Defense Can Propel Them To The WNBA Finals
Aside from a game 90-81 game 3 loss, it's their defense that's primarily held the Lynx in check. Again, this is a Sun team that lost by only nine points in game 3, after shooting 15 percent from deep. Covering the spread is more than attainable.
Overall, the Sun's defense has limited the Lynx to 77 points and under the first two games. In fact, it was promising they held Collier to just nine points in game 2. If they can continue to ride that momentum, and piece together a starting lineup that works, Connecticut can cover, and even walk away with this victory. With coach White saying the starting lineup sometimes isn't made up until the day off, I do expect the matchups to change.
Will Alyssa Thomas continue to guard Naphessa Collier? Proven that's a rare tough matchup for Thomas, White may continue to stick Bonner on her, which is what happened in the second half of game 3. If the Sun can make those defensive adjustments, I do think they will be alright. Given Minnesota's weakness has been their rebounding in the playoffs, the Sun will need to capitalize off winning the board share, and second chance points.
Why The Lynx Can Cover The Spread
Heading into the season, not many people had the Lynx ranked high on their rankings list. And after Minnesota's Commissioners Cup victory over New York, head coach Cheryl Reeve let the press know. Locked in as the no. 2 seed this season, as mentioned before, the Lynx were one of the top defensive teams in the league. Signing Alanna Smith from Chicago proved to be an incredible asset. Leading the front court with Collier, they developed one of the scariest defenses down low.
Winning DPOY, Collier had an MVP caliber season, and was a large part of their success. However, what make this team so dangerous is their bench depth, as we saw with Heideman in game 3. Taking their games to new heights, both Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton had career seasons, and were x-factors all season. Although adapting to a new role the signing of Courtney Williams at point guard has been a game changer.
Overall, if the Lynx can get production out of the starting five and bench aside from Collier, this team should roll into the Finals. 4-1 ATS in the last five games, this is a Lynx team that is excellent against the spread. 15-12 ATS as favorites, they now have a home court matchup, where they had a 11-9 ATS record. While you can look at all the stats you want, this is a Lynx team that's a serious championship contender.
We saw what this Lynx team can do, especially in game 2 of the playoffs vs Connecticut. With a more well balanced attack led by Williams and Smith, Minnesota was able to make up for Collier's shortcomings. Even with that, it was their defense that held the Sun to just 70 points. As we saw in game 3, Collier received some offensive production from her starting cast. Ultimately, their chances will come down to how well the bench produces, in addition to the supporting players. If that's the case, Minnesota can run away with the points tonight.
While the Lynx are more than capable of covering tonight, my best bet lies with the Connecticut Sun.
Final WNBA Playoff best betting prediction: Connecticut Sun +4.5 (-108 FanDuel)
With guard Ty Harris looking back to her old self, the Sun gain back an elite perimeter defender, who will give the Sun a much needed spark beyond the perimeter. Overall it comes down to, can Marina Mabrey and Harris provide enough from beyond the arc? Will Alyssa Thomas continued to be bottled up by Collier, or will she break lose again. As we saw in game 3, the Sun thrive off defensive stops, which turned into scary offense in transition.
While coach Reeve is the best in the business, and Minnesota is a very talented team, I'm laying the points with the Sun tonight. Proving they can hang with anyone, this is a team that's been around each other for years. With solidified chemistry with Bonner and Thomas, I'm not going against that tonight. Although the Lynx are an elite team, just five starters returned from last season. With more chemistry and veteran experience, look for a combination of rookie and veteran experience for the Sun.
I was encouraged by the defensive play of Veronica Burton off the bench. In addition Ty Harris was excellent in controlling the pace and hitting the most important shots when they mattered the most.
Lay The Points with Connecticut
Look for the Sun to continue their defensive dominance, leading the WNBA playoff teams in opponent points per game (78.2), three-point percentage (30.4 %), and free-throw attempts (14.2). Aside from Natisha Heideman providing 16 points off the bench for the Lynx, no other player really stepped up on the offense end aside from her and Collier. Combine the perfect combination from Bonner and Thomas, and Mabrey, who's overcome her shooting struggles.
While I don't expect Brionna Jones to have the game of her life, I do expect Dijonai Carrington to be impactful on both ends of the floor tonight. Don't expect this game to be a blowout. I do believe with the season on the line, it will be a physical, defensive battle until the end. Connecticut +4.5 is my best bet for today's matchup between the Sun and Lynx.
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