The WNBA Semi-Final games are underway, and it's down to four teams:
New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, and Connecticut Sun.
In a best-of-five series, the Las Vegas Aces (27-13, 13-7 home) will host the New York Liberty (32-8, 16-4 away) for the first time this postseason. Back-to-back champions, the Aces are down 0-2 in the series and will face elimination tonight on their home court.
(Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
Looking to clinch their second consecutive semi-final series, the New York Liberty are coming off an exhilarating 88-84 victory over the Aces. Although it could've been anyone's game, it was Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu who came up with a colossal shot late in the fourth quarter. While the margin of error is slim in playoff games, New York challenged a game decision play, which was overturned.
While the ball was originally called out of bounds on Liberty rookie Leonie Fiebich, it was in fact last touched by Kelsey Plum. Those are the costly errors that will, unfortunately, lose you playoff games in the WNBA.
Leading the way for the Liberty was Ionescu, who finished with 24 points, on 9-18, and 3-9 from the three. Adding nine rebounds, and five assists, it's been Ionescu's inside game and confidence that's been all the difference.
- With 21 points off the bench, New York had three additional starters with points in double figures.
Not surprising, unanimous MVP A'ja Wilson tallied 24 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. 11-18 from the floor, Wilson will need the guards to step up, especially Kelsey Plum. When it comes to the WNBA playoffs, you simply can't shoot 2-9 from the floor with six points.
Can The Las Vegas Aces Avoid A Sweep Vs The Liberty?
Having suffered a head injury in the third quarter, Aces big Kiah Stokes is ruled out for tonight's game vs the Liberty. Although they've been here before, especially with injuries last Finals, all eyes are on the Aces, as they are on the brink of elimination.
- In a must win game, expect the former champs to give everything they have tonight.
Although I do believe the Aces will sneak out a win on their home court, I've veered away from betting on the moneyline, spread, or total. With -820 odds to win the semi-final matchup vs the Aces, New York is now the heavy favorite to win the WNBA Finals with -210 odds.
While it's anyone's shot, New York is looking like a strong candidate to make the WNBA Finals. Although no team has ever come back down from a 0-2 deficit, can the
Aces
be the first in a best-of-five series?
WNBA Odds Are Current As of October 4 at 8 A.M. ET
If you're looking to make some bets and predictions on the WNBA playoffs today, the Liberty and Aces are set to tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET. Favorites by a 2.5 point spread, the matchup will be held at Michelob ULTRA Arena, located in Las Vegas, NV. Planned to air on ESPN2, if Vegas can stay alive, the next two games will take place on their home court.
If you're looking to make some coin on Liberty vs Aces player prop bets, you've come to the right place! In this article, I will break down my three best player prop bet for tonight's WNBA games. With a WNBA betting record of 172-141, my goal is to keep up in the green. Placing all of my bets on FanDuel sportsbook, I chose not to parlay, and take them all as straight bets.
Let's take a look into the Liberty vs Aces matchup today, and analyze my three best player prop bets!
Are you looking to bet on the WNBA Playoffs? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete
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WNBA Playoff Player Props: New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces For Friday, October 4
WNBA Player Prop Bet #1: Leonie Fiebich
Leonie Fiebich Playoff Stats
PPG: 10.5 | FG: 70 % | FT: 100 % | 3PT : 66.7 % | REB: 1.5 | AST: 1.3 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.0
- O 1.5 3PTM (-178 FanDuel)
My first WNBA player prop bet for the Playoffs, I bet on Liberty rookie
Leonie Fiebich
to total over 1.5 three-pointers made vs the Aces tonight. First off, head coach Sandy Brondello showed her coaching brilliancy by swapping Fiebich into the starting lineup for veteran Courtney Vandersloot. A tall and lengthy, defender, Fiebich can splash from the three.
- After all, the forward was recently a core member of the German National Women's Olympic team.
One aspect about the Liberty is their entire lineup can hit from deep, and score extremely well. As mentioned in previous articles, it starts with the double-team of Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, or even Sabrina Ionescu. Where the Liberty thrive is their fluid ball movement, which always makes its way to Fiebich.
Yes, this line is extremely juiced, however I do believe you can get some value there. How can you fade a player who is shooting over 66 percent from deep in the playoff? You simply can't.
The Line Should Be Higher Than 1.5 3PT
Overall, the Liberty play unselfish basketball, and more times that not, you'll see Fiebich splash from the corner. While defense has mainly been a struggle for the Aces all season, it's simply impossible to guard both the weak and strong side of this Liberty team. With several high profile names on this team, Fiebich always finds open looks, since Ionescu, Jones, and Stewart, and Jones are the primary targets on defense.
When it comes to game 3 of the semi-final matchup between the Liberty and Aces, I simply love this prop. Not so much for the value, however, I think the line should be way higher than 1.5 three-pointers made. Hitting 70 percent of shots in the playoffs, Fiebich has the hot hand, and we're going to ride it.
Part of the WNBA all-rookie team, yes this will be Fiebich's first time experiencing an Aces matchup on the road. While it can get quite loud in that arena, there's good news on the horizon. Fiebich has cooked up against the Aces all season long, especially on the road.
Why Leonie Fiebich Is The Ultimate X-Factor Vs The Aces
Although they've struggled to contain the perimeter this season, the Aces have improved as of late. With that said, coming off the bench in two of three games against Las Vegas this year, Fiebich averaged 50 percent from deep. Totaling 1.7 made threes on 3.3 attempts, the German native was even more impressive on the Aces home court!
In two games on the road this year, number 13 averaged 10 points, on 44.4 percent from beyond the arc, including 2.0 made threes per came. Now explain to me how this line is still set at 1.5 total three-pointers for tonight. For that reason, i'll take this prop any day.
Fiebich's three-point shooting a no-brainer against the Aces
Set to start again for the Liberty, Fiebich is coming off a six point performance, in which the forward shot 2-4 from deep. Hot on the right side hash and corner, her length gives her the edge to come off-ball screens from the corner, as we saw over Jackie Young. Often times the Aces help way too much in the paint, and the Liberty know when to kick out at the right time.
With such a high three-point percentage, this is simply a no brainer. Hitting the over in four straight games, Fiebich hit over 1.5 three-pointers made in four of the last five against Las Vegas. Although the shot volume isn't incredibly high, her minutes have hovered between 26-27 in the playoffs.
Final WNBA Playoff betting prediction: Leonie Fiebich O 1.5 3PT (-178 FanDuel)
If you're cooking up some WNBA playoff player prop bets, keep in mind, Fiebiech tallied a career-high 21 points, off 4-4 three-point shooting in the first-round against the Atlanta Dream. Fiebich finished with the 2nd single best +/- by a rookie in WNBA history (+279) and 2nd best 3pt % 43.3 by a rookie, according to Liberty PR. For those purposes alone, I'm betting the over on Fiebich three-pointers tonight.
Although I wouldn't say Fiebich is the world's best shot creator, this prop is contingent on New York's ball movement and spacing. It's not as though Fiebich is hitting meaningless three-pointers. The forward did give the Liberty the lead back in game two with the go ahead corner three ball.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #2: Chelsea Gray
Chelsea Gray Playoff Stats
PPG: 11.5 | FG: 38.1 % | FT: 81.8 % | 3PT : 29.4 % | REB: 3.3 | AST: 6.0 | STL: 0.5 | BLK: 0.8
- O 5.5 assists (+102 FanDuel)
If you've read my articles, you know I'm a big
Chelsey Gray
fan, especially from a betting perspective. Having won me a ton of coin, I usually grab her assists at 4.5. However, I bet on Gray to total over 5.5 assists tonight against the Liberty for +102 odds on FanDuel.
Again, it's all about finding value, and I can't figure out for the life of me how this player prop is plus money! If you bet on the WNBA, the playoffs are a different atmosphere. Often times than not, it brings out the most competitive in players, and that's been the case with Gray.
Healthy from last year's injury, Gray back to "playoff Gray " mode, averaging 11.5 points and six assists through the playoffs. Sure, there's no doubt the Aces struggled moving the ball in game two, and Gray was held to one assists. However, the point "gawd" is coming off seven dimes in game two vs New York, and tallied nine, seven, and five against the Seattle Storm in game one.
Why This Is A Risky, Yet Rewarding Player Prop Bet
Mentioned in my previous articles, Gray is the primary facilitator and conductor to the offense. Sure, A'ja Wilson is the best player on the team. However, it's Gray that has the court vision and no look passes like no other. Certainly getting in looks for 14 points in game 2, I expect Gray to continue to find Wilson, especially in the mid-range or in the paint.
Overall, Gray brings a different version of herself and intensity when it comes to the playoffs. Whether it's Hayes cutting back door, or playing inside out basketball with Alysha Clark. In fact, maybe it's better if Kiah Stokes isn't in the lineup from a betting perspective.
A defensive juggernaut, Stokes is often left wide open, and doesn't shoot a ton. Expecting Clark to start for the Aces, that gives Gray even more weapons on the offensive end.
Gray’s assist line: high risk, high reward in WNBA Playoffs
With over a 30 percent assist rate, nine of those have gone to A'ja Wilson, who's completed two three-pointers from Gray in the playoffs. If she can continue to establish a connection from Hayes, she's hit the guard with five assists alone in four playoff matchups.
If you're betting on the WNBA playoffs, I am very confident in this player prop tonight. 6+ assists for +102 is great value. A slight bit of risk, the line is set perfectly, matching Gray's playoff assist average. Expect Gray to get a majority of her assists if the Aces can continue to get out in transition.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #3: Jackie Young
Jackie Young Playoff Stats
PPG: 13.3 | FG: 36.5 % | FT: 88.9 % | 3PT : 39.1 % | REB: 6.0 | AST: 3.0 | STL:1.0 | BLK: 0.5
- O 1.5 3PTM (-166 FanDuel)
My third WNBA player prop of the day, I bet on Aces guard
Jackie Young
to total over 1.5 three-pointers made against the New York Liberty. One of the most prolific guards in the WNBA, there's no doubt Young has been inconsistent. Post olympic break, Young has been dealing with nagging injuries.
Even still, Young has been present in the playoffs, coming off back-to-back 17 point performances against the Liberty. The leader in three-point percentage just one year ago, Young is shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Jackie Young key to Aces’ playoff survival
Sometimes, you never know if it's going to be a Kelsey Plum day, a Jackie Young day, or both. However, it is the playoffs, and the Aces are on the brink of elimination. With that said, head coach Becky Hammon will have no choice but to get her guards involved aside from A'ja Wilson. I've said this time and time again, Wilson can't win games all by herself.
If you're betting on the WNBA playoffs, we saw Jackie Young hit some fairly deep shots, with all three trey balls coming from the deep right and left sided hash. Primarily matched up with Sabrina Ionescu, we know her defense has improved.
However, that hasn't stopped Young from stepping back and drilling long shots over Ionescu. Similar to New York, Young had much success on the perimeter when the Liberty collapsed inside the paint, leaving her open.
Final WNBA Playoff betting prediction: Jackie Young O 1.5 3PTM (-166 FanDuel)
Overall, Young is playing hefty minutes, averaging 31.3 over the playoffs. Such an integral part of this Aces team, the guard is coming off an eight three-point attempt night. Excellent in hitting from deep in transition, Young has 15 three-point attempts in the last two games against New York.
- While I do believe this prop line will go up, be sure to grab this now. In an elimination game, rest assured, Jackie Young will make at last two three-pointers.
Coming off four three-pointers in game 2, Young has eight trey balls against New York in the last three meetings alone.
Over 32 percent of Young's shots are from deep in the playoffs, and with 22 trey balls attempted in the post season, expect Young to be a threat on the perimeter tonight. Although Young struggled from the perimeter against New York this year, it's do or die for the Aces.
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