The Connecticut Sun looks to extend its winning streak to four while the New York Liberty hopes to return to the win column as both teams battle for the top spot in the WNBA standings on Wednesday, July 10, 2024 in Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut.
(Photo by Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images)
Connecticut Sun Vs New York Liberty Predictions: WNBA Team Analysis
New York and Connecticut currently have identical 17-4 (win-loss) records. The Sun is coming off an 80-67 massacre of the Atlanta Dream on Sunday to record its third straight win.
Versatile forward DeWanna Bonner led all scorers with 24 points while shooting guard Dijonai Carrington added 17 points for the Sun who will be taking on a hungry New York squad that is on the back of an 83-78 loss to the Indiana Fever
All-around guard Sabrina Ionescu spearheaded New York’s attack with 22 points but it wasn’t enough to offset a historic game from Indiana’s Caitlin Clark who became the first rookie to record a triple-double.
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They will return to action hoping to record its second win over the Connecticut Sun this season.
- In their most recent clash, the Liberty beat the Sun 82-75 behind Ionescu and forward Jonquel Jones who combined for 46 points.
By virtue of New York’s victory over Connecticut, they currently hold the top spot in the standings. Will it stay the same or will the Sun overtake the Liberty at the top?
Keep scrolling as we analyze the current Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty lines and provide you with a comprehensive analysis of possible betting angles.
Connecticut Sun
Vs
New York Liberty
Bet365 WNBA
Odds Today
July 10
Moneyline
- Connecticut Sun: +110
- New York Liberty: -130
Spread
- Connecticut Sun: +1.5 (-105)
- New York Liberty: -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (Total)
- OVER 156.5 (-110)
- UNDER 156.5 (-110)
Connecticut Sun
Vs
New York Liberty
Injury Report
Connecticut Sun Injury Report
- Moriah Jefferson – Ankle – Out
New York Liberty Injury Report
- Nyara Sabally – Back – Day-to-Day
Best odds for
Connecticut Sun
vs.
New York Liberty
- The New York Liberty has defeated the Connecticut Sun four consecutive times. Bet365 offers them at -130 to make it five wins in a row.
- The New York Liberty holds one of the worst Against-The-Spread (ATS) records in the league. The best Connecticut Sun odds to cover the +1.5 spread are on Bet365 at -105.
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- The over hit in three of the past four matchups between the New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun. FanDuel has the best price for the over 156.5 market total at -110.
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Why will the
Connecticut Sun
cover the spread?
The Connecticut Sun heads into this game against the New York Liberty as the underdogs and it comes as no surprise considering the latter gave them the business in their last meeting.
But if there is one thing the Sun can take solace is the dismal ATS record of the Liberty as betting favorites.
- New York is currently 7-14 ATS when bookmakers have them as favorites to win the game, meaning they sometimes do not deliver even when they are expected to win by a wide margin.
- This was certainly the case against the Indiana Fever where the Liberty opened as -10.5 underdogs.
Another case in point was against the Phoenix Mercury where New York opened as -5 favorites but lost 99-93.
- For context, the Sun demolished the Mercury 83-72 last week.
While WNBA math rarely works, it goes to show that the Liberty is historically bad at covering the spread as favorites making the spread for Connecticut at these current odds a viable option for punters.
- For Connecticut to cover the spread, they will need to put on the defensive clamps on the Liberty which currently leads the league in field goal percentage at 44.7% per game.
In their last matchup, the Sun allowed the Liberty to shoot over 50% per game which is not a winning formula against a team which also happens to be among the league leaders in scoring. If that’s not bad enough, the Sun also shot just under 37% against the Liberty.
An encouraging thought heading into this match against the Liberty, though, is Connecticut’s shooting percentage has gone up in the past few games.
- Throughout their last three games, the Sun has made 45.6% of their shots while forcing teams to shoot 36.5% from outside.
- The Liberty is also coming off one of its worst shooting nights, making just 23.8% of their three-point shots against Indiana which means this is the perfect time for Connecticut to strike and avenge its defeat earlier this season.
Why will the
New York Liberty
cover the spread?
The New York Liberty hit a minor hiccup on Saturday losing to the Indiana Fever. But the thing with the Liberty is they always bounce back in a big way after a loss.
Following their defeat against the Phoenix Mercury last month, the Liberty beat the Los Angeles Sparks by 13 the next time they returned to the court. If that’s not impressive enough, they beat the Sparks again the next day by double digits.
Now, they return to action against a Connecticut team they’ve beaten in their past five encounters.
- Across their past five wins against the Sun, the Liberty has won by an average margin of 6.2 points.
What makes this even remarkable was four of their last five Liberty wins against the Sun came on the road.
Another thing worth noting is the terrible ATS record of Connecticut at home.
- Throughout their 11 home games this season, the Sun is 4-7 ATS.
- They are also below .500 when bookmakers have them as underdogs heading into the game.
While this is no better than their opponents, the Liberty does have a respectable 6-4 ATS record when playing away from home. Plus, New York has managed to cover the -5.5 spread the last time these two teams faced one another.
Connecticut is also among the worst defensive teams in the league. The Sun is currently fourth to the last in defensive rebounds and in last place in blocks at 2.9 per game.
With plenty of questions around Connecticut’s defense heading into this match, backing the Liberty to cover the spread at odds could offer significant value for punters believing in the team’s lineup depth.
Final
Connecticut Sun
vs.
New York Liberty
Prediction: New York Liberty ML (-130)
This is one of those matchups that could go either way. Even though the New York Liberty is coming off a loss, you can never count them out especially with how they are able to bounce back after setbacks.
On the other hand, picking against the Connecticut Sun is a tough proposition considering they have only lost twice at home this season. Nevertheless, I am going out of a limb and picking the Liberty to win outright at -130.
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