WNBA predictions today: Dream vs Mercury betting picks and odds on September 3

It's Tuesday, September 3, and there's a massive WNBA slate of games to bet on. In my matchup of the day, the Phoenix Mercury (16-17, 9-7 home) will host the Atlanta Dream (11-21, 5-11 away).

One point spread underdogs on the road, the Dream find themselves in a clutch matchup against the Mercury, who currently lead the series 2-1. In their final meeting of the WNBA season, can the Dream tie up the series?

The Dream suffered a heartbreaking 82-80 loss in their last matchup. Although both teams are struggling, I'll break down who I've bet on and my best predictions for this matchup.

 (Photo by Paras Griffin/Getty Images)

Atlanta finds themselves tied with the Chicago Sky for the 8th and final WNBA playoff seed.

• With just one victory in their last five matchups, the Dream finally earned their first win over the Sparks on Sunday, 80-62.
• They now face a Phoenix team that's 1-4 in their last five games.

Coming off three straight losses to the Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, and New York Liberty, the Mercury are 0-3 against the spread in that time frame. While their schedule's been rigorous, Phoenix is 4-6 in their last ten games and currently holds the seventh playoff seed in the WNBA standings.

Although they hold a comfortable 4.5-game lead over the Sky, they have one of the worst point differentials in the league at -2.3.

If you're betting on the WNBA, it's important to note Natasha Cloud is listed as out for the Mercury.

• In Sunday's loss against the Aces, both Diana Taurasi and Cloud each picked up their seventh technical foul.
• Updated as of September 2, Taurasi's technical foul has been rescinded.

This could very well have a significant impact if you're choosing to bet on tonight's game.

WNBA BETTING ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF SEPTEMBER 3 AT 11:30 A.M. ET

As of Monday morning, the Dream were the one point spread and moneyline favorites. As I'm writing this, the Mercury have shifted to one point favorites, with the Dream nearly money line approaching plus money.

• At -105 money line odds, I do believe there is great value in snagging the Dream money line.

I've compiled a list of the current odds from FanDuel for the September 3 matchup between the Atlanta Dream and and the Phoenix Mercury.

If you're looking to bet on the WNBA, tip-off will begin at 10 p.m. ET,  at Footprint Center, located in Phoenix, Arizona. In this article, I've provided my best game analysis, prediction, along with betting predictions for the matchup.

Are you in search of further sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

ATLANTA DREAM VS PHOENIX MERCURY INJURY REPORT

ATLANTA DREAM INJURY REPORT

• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, OUT (Ankle)
• Aerial Powers, OUT (Calf)

PHOENIX MERCURY INJURY REPORT

• Charisma Osborne, OUT (Leg)
• Rebecca Allen, OUT (Hamstring)
• Natasha Cloud, OUT (Suspension)

2024 WNBA HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: Dream VS Mercury

Season Matchups:

• Game 1: Mercury 99, Dream 85 (Phoenix +2.5, over 170.5)
• Game 2: Dream 75, Mercury 63 (Atlanta +3, under 165)
• Game 3: Mercury 82, Dream 80 (Push 2.0, push 162)
• O/U last 10 matchups: 3-61
• Dream are 7-2-1 AST vs Mercury over the last 10 games

WNBA BEST BETS FOR THE ATLANTA DREAM VS PHOENIX MERCURY

MONEY LINE BET: ATLANTA DREAM

• -105 (FanDuel)

The matchup between the Atlanta Dream and the Phoenix Mercury is not a highly anticipated one.  However, I always aim to put out value picks, or bets that I feel will get the most return.

1. In this instance, you have the Dream and the Mercury, who are both 4-6 in their last ten matchups.
2. Although the Dream have an unimpressive 5-11 record on the road, there are several factors why I believe the Dream money line is a solid pick.

First of all, this is a tough game to bet on especially, since both sides are dealing with nagging injuries. 3-6-1 against the spread over the last ten games, it's truly hard to tail them as the favorites.

• As mentioned before, Phoenix hasn't had the easiest schedule, however, they've been outscored by 45 points in the last three matchups.
• In addition, unable to stop A'ja Wilson with 41 points, the Aces poured on 97 points. Dominated in all aspects, including points off turnovers, paint points and rebounds, Phoenix was never going to get their way.

Over the last five games, the Mercury weaknesses have truly been exposed, and that includes poor defense, and a high turnover rate.

Having turned the ball over 19 times agains the Lynx, Minnesota once again dumped 89 points, while the Mercury struggled to put up over 79 points in two consecutive games.

• Averaging just 75 points in the last three matchups, the Aces, Lynx, and Liberty combined for an average 90 points against the Mercury. F

or a team that has three olympians in the starting lineup, something isn't adding up. With a team that has Brittney Griner, Kahleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, and Diana Taurasi, this squad has much higher expectations from a betting and fan perspective.

WHY THE ATLANTA DREAM CAN WIN THE MONEY LINE BET

I've talked about the Mercury's downfall, and their defensive challenges. Although the Dream are 1-4 in their last five games, their point differential tallied -22 over their losing streak, compared to the Mercury's 45. While both haven't performed well, the Dream have allowed just 76.7 opponent points per game, compared to 84.4.

The Los Angeles Sparks are undeniably rebuilding and dealing with significant injuries on the season. An 18 point monstrous win over the Sparks, Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Tina Charles, and Naz Hillmon all tied points in double figures for the Dream. Easily covering the -4.5 point spread, was this an outlier game, or are the Dream back on track?

1. I'd like to think the Dream can handle the Mercury, who will be without Cloud.
2. For a team who's offense has been abysmal over the last five games or so,  Cloud combine for a total of 17 points and an average of 4.6 assists.
3. With Rebecca Allen sidelined with a hamstring injury, rookie Celeste Taylor, who recently signed a 7-day contract, should see an increase in minutes.

BEST BET: DREAM ML

Overall, missing two key players isn't the only reason why I'm placing my bets on the Atlanta Dream money line. With Cloud in the starting lineup, Phoenix has been the least efficient team on the offensive end.

1. Over the the last five matchups, the Mercury are averaging an WNBA league low 74 points per game on 30.1 percent three-point and shooting.
2. Not to mention 16 turnovers per game is in the bottom tier of the league.

Overall, the Dream are 5th in opponent points per game this season (79.9), and I don't see the Mercury having the options to replace two key players against a solid defense.

Especially two stars who've averaged a combined 17.7 points per game against Atlanta this season.

PHOENIX MERCURY ARE 2-1 VS DREAM THIS WNBA SEASON

Yes, the Mercury are 2-1 on the moneyline this year against the Dream. In fact, they won the money line outright in the beginning of the season, although now we are are approaching the end of season. With the last matchup ending in a push for both the spread and totals, these teams are more evenly matched than not.

• Also, it's helpful this is Atlanta's and Phoenix's third matchup in three weeks.

If you're betting on the WNBA, there's a 14 point differential between the Dream and Mercury in three meetings, and an 11 point differential in two meetings in August. In a nutshell, there hasn't been a blowout on either side, which makes this extremely difficult to bet on.

• With Atlanta and Phoenix 1-1 ATS as underdogs, it would only make sense I'm taking the Dream moneyline, and the +1 underdog spread for -102 on FanDuel.

There's no doubt Kahleah Copper should handle the work load for Phoenix, who's averaged 25 points alone against them this year. However, there are significant differences in both teams, including rebounding efficiency, in addition to offensive and defensive production.

1. In fact, the Dream rank top 5 in defensive rating over the last five matchups (102.6), consistent with their season average.
2. 8th overall in defensive rating, they face a Mercury team who's dead last in offensive production over the course of time.

Overall, I'm not expecting a ton of offensive production from either side, considering the Dream only cracked over 40 percent from the field just once against them.

As the chemistry continues to growth with a healthy Dream lineup, the combination of Howard, Gray, and Jordin Canada alone should be able to overpower Phoenix in the backcourt. Especially defensively, with Howard and Canada.

DREAM VS MERCURY BETTING TRENDS

SPREAD BET: ATLANTA DREAM

• +1 (-110 FanDuel)

If you're betting on the Dream and Mercury game, the Dream are 11-21 against the moneyline this season, which is why I don't always look at just trends. In fact, they are 5-17 covering the moneyline as underdogs, while Phoenix is 11-3 as favorites.

• While I'm choosing to take the Dream money line, I also grabbed them to cover the +1 underdog spread.

Given Phoenix is 0-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in their last five games, they've been unable to cover the 3 point favorable spread against Atlanta on August 23. Conversely, Atlanta's impressively covered, with a 6-2-2 record over the last ten games, including large underdog spreads against Connecticut and Seattle. 2-2-1 against the spread in their last five games, they are playing tough ball, the wins just haven't tallied up.

• If you're betting on the spread, keep in mind, the Dream have been extremely efficient, going 11-5 on the road as of late.