WNBA Predictions Today: Liberty vs Aces Game 1 Picks and Odds on September 29

Offensive fireworks will be in full display as the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces renew their fierce rivalry this Saturday to open the semifinal round of the WNBA playoffs at Barclays Center.

(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

It can be recalled that the Liberty and the Aces faced off in the WNBA Finals last season with the latter winning the title in Game 4 by the tiniest of margins.

1. This season though, New York has beaten Las Vegas in all of their three regular season matchups pretty convincingly, winning by an average margin of eight points.
2. New York is fresh off a dominant first round sweep of the Atlanta Dream beating the latter by an average of 11.5 points while Las Vegas was also impressive knocking the Seattle Storm in two games.
3. The Liberty are opening as a slight favorite here according to the latest New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces betting lines though it is worth noting that the latter covered the spread in their previous matchup.

Will the Aces finally get that elusive victory or will the Liberty continue its dominant run? As of press time, here’s how the current New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces betting lines look.

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces DraftKings WNBA Odds for September 29

Moneyline

• New York Liberty: -185
• Las Vegas Aces: +154

Spread

• New York Liberty: -4 (-110)
• Las Vegas Aces: +4 (-110)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 163 (-110)
• UNDER 163 (-110)

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

New York Liberty Injury Report

• No Injuries

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• No Injuries

Best WNBA odds for New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces

• The New York Liberty have covered twice in their three previous matchups with the Las Vegas Aces. The best New York Liberty odds to cover the spread are available on DraftKings at -110.
• The Las Vegas Aces have won twice in their previous six encounters with the New York Liberty. LeoVegas offers the best odds for the Aces to win outright at +163.
• The under hit in four of the previous six matchups between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. Bet365 offers the best New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces odds for the under at -110.

Why will the New York Liberty cover the spread?

The New York Liberty are entering these playoffs with one thing in mind and that's to win a championship. After falling to the Las Vegas Aces in last year’s finals, the Liberty will get another shot at revenge when they battle the defending champs in the semis and this time might be different.

• Hell-bent on doing what they were supposed to do last year, the Liberty has been a picture of invincibility this season, especially at home where they’ve only lost five times.
• What’s even more impressive is they have covered twice in their three matchups against a powerhouse Aces team that currently leads the league at crashing the boards.

One thing that the Liberty cannot afford to do here is to get three-time league Most Valuable Player A’ja Wilson to get her touches inside.

• New York were successful in doing that in two of their three regular season matchups, forcing Wilson to commit just above two errors per game.
• It is also worth noting that the Liberty are taking on an Aces squad that ranks among the worst as far as ATS away records are concerned at 9-10-1.

Considering its recent history and New York’s incredible run of success in the past few games, backing the Liberty to cover the spread at home in front of its adoring fans could offer potential value.

Why will the Las Vegas Aces cover the spread?

The Las Vegas Aces haven’t backed down from any challenge and they’ve shown it thus far in the first round of the playoffs against the feisty Seattle Storm squad.

Winning by an average margin of nine points in each of its playoff victories this season, the Aces have held strong against any Storm threat to move into its sixth consecutive WNBA semifinals appearance.

• Even more remarkable is the fact that the Aces have won 11 straight playoff home games dating back to last season.
• It is also worth noting that the Aces are taking on a New York Liberty team that is historically bad at covering the spread.

The Liberty have only covered the spread six times in 23 home games. Another thing of note is the excellent ATS record of the Aces as an underdog.

Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS when bookmakers have them as an underdog. For context, early New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces betting lines have the road team as four-point underdogs heading into this matchup.

• While the Aces have lost all three matchups against the Liberty this season, they can take solace at the fact that they were able to cover the spread in their previous matchup.
• Coming in as heavy nine-point underdogs and playing without A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas banked on crafty guard Kelsey Plum who unloaded 25 markers to get themselves right within striking distance.

With Wilson back in the lineup and as healthy as ever, one could argue that the four-point spread offers a significant value for punters wanting a betting spot on the favorite.

Should Wilson and Plum deliver their usual numbers and the Aces get sufficient contributions from its supporting cast, picking the defending champions to cover in this game is something worth considering.

Final New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces WNBA Prediction: Under 163 (-110)

Taking into account its recent history, picking the New York Liberty to cover the spread looks the most sensible play. But if there is anything about the WNBA playoffs, the one that makes sense does not actually come into fruition.

Although the Liberty has all the tools necessary to cover and possibly win dominantly, counting A’ja Wilson and the rest of the Las Vegas Aces is never a good idea. That being said, I am more inclined towards picking the under here.

With both teams still trying to adjust to one another’s playoff game plan, I am expecting a highly-defensive affair. It is also worth noting that four of their six previous matchups hit the under.