Women's NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Odds: Who Can Beat UConn?

You don’t get many surprises in the Women's NCAA Tournament. Since the 1999-2000 season, every eventual national championship winner was ranked inside the preseason top 16. Of the 44 winners, only 15 schools are represented (36 men’s teams have won a national championship).

Does this mean we should just go ahead and crown UConn and get it over with? The last time it lost a game was Feb. 6, 2025, 80-76, to then-No. 19 Tennessee. That means the Huskies be riding a 50-game winning streak when they face the UTSA Roadrunners in March Madness First Round action.

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

They have the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation (88.8 points per game) and the No. 1 defense (50.4 points per game allowed), scoring margin (38.4), steals per game (15.6), field goal percentage (52.5), 3-point percentage (39.6%), assists per game (23.7), field goal percentage defense (33.3%), and the assist/turnover ratio (1.86).

Sophomore forward Sarah Strong is expected to win the Wooden Award as the nation’s best women’s college basketball player.

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NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship Odds: Dark Horses

How does anyone defeat a team like Connecticut that has no apparent weakness? Can anyone beat the Huskies? They are entering the Women's NCAA Tournament with an unheard of 75% chance of winning the title (-300 | FanDuel). Since UConn is such a heavy favorite, the rest of the field can qualify as a dark horse candidate.

With that in mind, here are my top three choices.

Odds available via FanDuel.

NCAA Tournament Dark Horse: UCLA Bruins +480

As the No. 2 team in the country in the last AP Poll, UCLA is obviously the first choice. It is worth noting, however, that its odds only give it a 17.24% chance of winning it all. But can it do it?

The Bruins have gone 31-1 this season, with their lone loss coming against Texas early in the season. They’ll be taking a 25-game win streak into the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big Ten Tournament final vs. No. 9 Iowa. While Connecticut played only five teams ranked in the AP Top 25, UCLA played 13 (12-1).

UCLA doesn’t rank No. 1 in a number of statistical categories like UConn, but the Bruins are good at what they do — No. 6 in scoring (85.1 points per game), No. 22 in defense (57 points per game allowed), No. 2 in field goal percentage (51.3%), No. 6 in 3-point percentage (37.5%), No. 2 in assists per game (22.3), No. 2 in rebounding margin (14.9), and No. 2 in assist/turnover ratio.

From a statistical perspective, UConn is better, but the differences are minor and UCLA played a much tougher schedule than the Huskies. According to the Massey Ratings, Connecticut’s schedule ranked No. 30 while UCLA came in at No. 3.

Lauren Betts leads the team with 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, followed by Kiki Rice with 15.3 points per game.

Women's NCAA Tournament Dark Horse: Texas Longhorns +850

Like UConn and UCLA, Texas was a top-five team the entire season, starting at No. 4 and climbing as high as No. 2 before settling in at No. 3. It enters the tournament with a 31-3 record, all three losses coming to ranked teams in conference play, and as SEC Tournament Champions.

Like UCLA, the Longhorns also played a tougher schedule than the Huskies, with 17 games against ranked opponents (including the Bruins) and won 14 of them. One of the losses was to South Carolina, a perennial NCAA Tournament contender, but they also beat the Gamecocks twice (66-64 early in the season and again in the SEC Tournament Final, 78-61).

They have all the traits a team needs to make a deep run in the Women's NCAA Tournament and win it. They play an aggressive, physical style of defense that does a great job of disrupting passing lanes, forcing turnovers (22.71 per game; No. 11 in the country), and keeping opponents from getting a clean look at the basket (56.6 points per game allowed; No. 17).

But Texas is more than just a defensive team. The Longhorns have averaged 85 points per game (No. 7), make 50% of their shots (No. 5), pass the ball well, 18.1 assists per game (No. 12), and don’t turn the ball over (12.1 per game, No. 12).

However, if Texas needs to play catch-up, that’s going to be hard to do. It is among the worst in the country from 3-point range. Madison Booker leads the way for Texas on the scoreboard with 18.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

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Women's NCAA Tournament Dark Horse: South Carolina Gamecocks +950

If the discussion is on who can win the National Championship (which will require beating UConn at some point), no discussion would be complete without referencing South Carolina. The Gamecocks have been the gold standard for the last few years under head coach Dawn Staley.

For the last five seasons, they’ve owned a spot in the Final Four, played in three title games, and won two. It probably would have been six in a row had the 2020 Women's NCAA Tournament not been cancelled (COVID).

They haven’t been getting as much attention as UConn, UCLA, and Texas in national championship discussions. In a way, it’s surprising considering South Carolina's pedigree and how well the Gamecocks have played (31-3). They’ve got a top-four offense (86.3 points per game), allow 57.9 points per game (No. 31), make over half of their shots (50.7%, No. 3), and don’t foul much (12.7 per game, No. 9).

Maybe the reason why they don’t get as much attention is that we already know everything there is to know about them. Like in years past, the Gamecocks have arguably the best frontcourt in the country. They own the paint, crash the boards (offensive and defense), and don’t let opponents get too close to the rim. They probably have more depth than any team in the country. When the starters come out of games, there is no letdown.

Sophomore forward Joyce Edwards leads the way on the scoreboard with 19.6 points per game, followed by Ta’Niya Latson with 14.3. Center Madini Okut averages a double-double every game, 13.4 points and 10.9 rebounds per game.

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My Pick(s)

• All four teams are great and will likely make it to the Elite 8, if not the Final Four. But the one team I would not bet on is UConn. Yes, it has great players, depth, a Hall of Fame coach, and is undefeated. UConn’s strength of schedule comes in at No. 30, while Texas, South Carolina, and UCLA come in at 1, 2, and 3. Despite the high level of competition, the Huskies still rank in the top six in offensive and defensive efficiency (as does UConn). At -300, there is no value in betting on Connecticut. But there is value in UCLA (+480), Texas (+850), and South Carolina (+950).