Mexico vs Italy World Baseball Classic Betting Odds & Predictions (Mar. 11)

The final game of Pool B play in the World Baseball Classic will decide the fate of three national teams. When Italy and Mexico meet on Wednesday in Houston, the outcome of the game and how many runs are scored will determine whether the favored United States team advances to the knockout stage.

(Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)

Italy defeated the USA 8-6 on Tuesday to stay unbeaten. Apparently, Team USA manager Mark DeRosa thought his team had already "punched their ticket" to the knockout round. He set his lineup accordingly, and that mistake bit the Americans.

The U.S. ended Pool Play with a 3-1 record. That means if Mexico beats the Italians tonight, there will be a three-way tie. The three teams would have an identical 1-1 record against each other.

As a result, the number of runs allowed could decide which two of the three teams move on in this tournament. If Italy wins tonight, the Italians and the Americans will advance.

The U.S. was the heavy favorite to win this tournament, according to baseball betting apps. But a sluggish game against Italy (and an embarrassing mistake by DeRosa) placed this star-studded team in jeopardy.

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World Baseball Classic: Mexico vs. Italy Betting Odds & Best Bets (Mar. 11)

How Team USA could be eliminated on Wednesday

The many scenarios for what happens if Mexico wins include runs allowed by the three teams. Essentially, it comes down to this: if Mexico wins, they need to allow fewer than five runs to keep the U.S from advancing. Even if Italy loses, they can advance if they keep Mexico's runs down.

This game will be aired free on Tubi at 7 PM ET. It may also be found on FS1. Oddsmakers have Mexico listed as the favorite.

Odds for Mexico vs Italy

• Mexico -275 vs Italy +215, Pool Play of World Baseball Classic (OVER/UNDER: 7.5 Runs)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings, which is offering bonus bets for new users.

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World Baseball Classic Best Bet: Mexico vs Italy Under 7.5 Runs

Here's the elephant in the room: neither Italy nor Mexico would like to face the U.S. again in this tournament. I'm not saying the teams will collude to ensure that doesn't happen. But, if Mexico were to win this game by say, 4-1 or 3-2, it wouldn't hurt the feelings of the Italians. There would still be cannoli and espresso in the clubhouse.

Mexico, under manager Benji Gil, is determined to get to the championship round. They will be on their game tonight to defeat Italy.

A winning $110 bet on the UNDER for 7.5 runs would pay $100. These odds are from Caesars online sportsbook.

• BEST BET: MEX vs ITA Under 7.5 Runs (-110)

Here's a game prop for tonight's World Baseball Classic matchup between Team Italy and Mexico. Odds are from FanDuel.

• GAME PROP: First Five Innings Result, TIE (+550)

These two teams will circle one another like boxers in the ring for a few innings. The pitching and defense will be on point as both teams understand the importance of this game. I expect the last four innings to make the difference. It could be 0-0 through five. Which means members of Team USA will be doing one thing: sweating.

I'm placing half a unit on this prop bet. That's $50 on the game will be tied through five innings. A winning bet would pay $275, plus my stake.

Game Pick: Mexico Hands Italy Its First Loss

The Mexican team needs to win to advance. If they win AND allow fewer than five runs, Team USA will be sent packing from the WBC.

I think Team USA will survive, but by the skin of its molars. Mexico has the more talented, deeper roster. Team Italy has several top-caliber players, but their bullpen is weaker than Mexico's. I like Aaron Nola on the hill for the Italians to start, which is why I think this contest will be low-scoring through 4-5 frames.

But Mexico's offense will pull away late and get a win. Italy will make it a game, but be on the outside looking in.

• World Baseball Classic Prediction: Mexico 6, Italy 5