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Best MLB Bets Today July 26: Three Picks for Friday

Publish Date: 07/26/2024
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We're set to kick off the weekend with a full slate of baseball on Friday, and there are plenty of teams in action that are beginning their march to the postseason.

(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

We'll take a look at many of them below, beginning in Philly where we should see plenty of runs in a matchup that's friendly to two capable offenses. Then, we'll look into Adam Mazur, who will return to the big leagues after a demotion before touching on a big game in Boston with the Yankees in town.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 26.

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MLB BEST BET FOR CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The first thing I want to talk about on Friday is this game in Philly between two capable offenses.

On the one hand, we have a Phillies team which has loved hitting at home, playing up to the hitter-friendly nature of Citizens Bank Park with plenty of fly balls, and on the other we have a Guardians team that can rake against ground-ball pitchers.

Well, the matchup here suits both teams.

  • Cristopher Sanchez has been searching for answers this month with a 6.32 ERA through three starts, and even in limiting the Pirates and Dodgers to two runs apiece he's now allowed 20 total hits this month in 15 2/3 innings.
  • Sanchez has been a heavy ground-ball arm for years, ranking among the top 4% of pitchers in that area this season, and will face a Guardians team which has been significantly better against these types all year.

Cleveland owns a .252 average against ground-ballers with a .725 OPS which sits inside the top 10 of the league. It's shown a clear preference here, with its .237 average and .708 OPS paling in comparison.

I expect the struggles to persist for Sanchez, and on the opposite end we've got Ben Lively -- a pitcher who's more seven points higher than average in fly ball rate, working against a Phillies team which is seventh in the league in home run-to-fly ball ratio and eighth in overall fly ball rate this month.

Lively is perfectly palatable, but this is not the matchup for him.

Philadelphia may be around the middle of the league in wRC+ this month, but it remains potent with a .177 ISO and will enjoy the ability to cut back on a growing strikeout rate against the contact-oriented Lively.

Best Bet: Over 8 Runs (-112 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BETS FOR SAN DIEGO PADRES VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

It's been a pretty tough rookie season for Adam Mazur, and it doesn't appear there's much hope that things will turn around.

The Padres righty came out of the minor leagues heralded for his expert control, posting a sub-5% walk rate across all levels.

All he did was walk 14.3% of the batters he saw in seven starts upon promotion, and he wound up walking two over four brutal innings in the one start he made in Triple-A after being sent back down.

Now, he's up with the big-league club to pitch on the road against a powerhouse Orioles offense.

  • Yes, the Orioles are in a rut at the moment, but the key factors are their increase in strikeouts in dip in power.
  • Baltimore can take solace in the fact that it's got a good chance to get things going against a fly-ball arm in Mazur whose .278 xBA and .421 xSLG fall well short of the league average.

Mazur's likely toast here against an Orioles team that does a ton of damage on contact, and in the reverse I'm not certain the Padres -- sitting much further up the offensive leaderboards this month -- is in as good of a spot.

This is a team which does not strike out, which theoretically could be tricky for a strikeout artist like Grayson Rodriguez, but in a bizarre twist the Padres have really struggled against ground-ballers with a measly .697 OPS to rank 17th in the game.

Zooming out to look at the season as a whole, it doesn't appear Rodriguez is an expert in avoiding high launch angles, but his ground ball rate has come up in each of the last three months and sits just a few points shy of 50% in July.

I expect the Orioles to get back on track here against a troubled young arm and move in front early.

Best Bet: Orioles First Five Innings -0.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB BEST BETS FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS BOSTON RED SOX

The talk all year in Boston has been about this offense's inability to hit left-handed pitching. The Red Sox are 37 points worse in OPS to southpaws and hitting 11 points worse, sitting 15th overall in wRC+ in this split compared to ninth against righties.

Why, then, are we seeing such a tight line on Friday?

  • Nestor Cortes's season has been something of an adventure, sure, but he just faced Boston earlier in the month and allowed just a run on three hits over six innings with eight strikeouts.
  • He's more than capable of exploiting a matchup advantage like this, and while he's given up plenty of fly balls and barrels still owns a respectable .240 xBA.

I believe in him here against a Red Sox team that has been unrecognizable against lefties, and in the reverse I'm not sold on Brayan Bello.

  • I do think the right-hander has talent, but I'm struggling to see an easy path to victory for him here on Friday given his strong ground-ball profile.

Even with the Yankees' awful last month and a half, they're still ranked second in average and OPS to ground-ballers this year as they've changed the way they're hitting.

The evidence in this turnaround is in their most recent meeting with Bello, where they tagged the righty for five runs over 4 2/3 innings back in June, taking three walks along the way.

Their ability to convert grounders into hits and runs, coupled with their expert patience, should hit Bello where it hurts given his poor .266 xBA and concerning walk rate which is up significantly from last season.

  • I expect a fair number of runs in this one, but you've got to favor New York.

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-118 at FanDuel)

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