Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
The playoff race is really hating up in the major leagues with several teams fighting for a division crown or wild-card positioning, and we should be treated to another excellent slate of baseball on Thursday as some big series get underway.
(Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
I'll be looking at a favorable matchup for Paul Skenes and the Pirates as they attempt to get back into the wild-card race before eyeing a big game in Baltimore and a redemption spot for Dylan Cease against the New York Mets.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Thursday, August 22.
MLB BEST BET FOR CINCINNATI REDS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES
It seems that the Pirates' postseason dreams are waning, but Thursday could be the beginning of a turnaround for Pittsburgh after a brutal beginning to the second half.
- That's due in part to Paul Skenes taking the ball. The flamethrower will take aim at a Reds team that ranks sixth-worst in strikeout rate this year and has watched that number jump by over two percentage points over the last two weeks up to 27.1%.
- Skenes is a well-documented strikeout artist, putting away 31.8% of the batters he's faced on strikes, and in his last start against the Reds he spun six innings of one-run ball with seven punchouts to earn a victory.
Cincinnati has hit a dreadful .233 over the last two weeks with a reliance on power -- and power only -- which won't work nearly as well in Pittsburgh as in its inviting home park. That should put the onus on Nick Lodolo to have a good start, something that's admittedly hard to see.
- Lodolo has failed to deliver on his great potential through two and a half big-league seasons, and this year owns a middling .235 Expected Batting Average around slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers.
- The 26-year-old has done well to limit power, sure, but the Pirates have been based around contact hitting over the last two weeks with an acceptable .242 batting average and poor strikeout and power numbers.
- The Pirates are second-worst in wRC+ against right-handers this year but sit 19th against lefties with significantly more hits and better power numbers.
I expect the Pirates to scratch across some runs thanks to their contact ability against a pitcher who's been quite poor in terms of limiting baserunners, and that should be enough in an excellent spot for Skenes.
Best Bet: Pirates ML (-140 at Caesars)
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MLB BEST BET FOR HOUSTON ASTROS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES
It's kind of crazy, but after a terrible start to his career in the minor leagues and a brutal first four months in the big leagues which saw him register an ERA near six runs, Spencer Arrighetti is beginning to look like a big-league pitcher.
- The right-hander has now struck out over 40% of the batters he's faced through three August starts -- a downright insane number -- and has coupled that with a steady improvement in limiting walks over the past two months and more competence on contact with an xBA that's over 20 points better than average.
- Baltimore has struggled to take walks in the past two weeks and for the season grades out as a very average team in terms of strikeouts, which should open the door for a quality outing here for Arrighetti.
- Best of all, the Orioles are slumping in the power department, ranking 10th in home run-to-fly ball ratio during this time after sitting atop the league for most of the season.
I'm quickly becoming a believer in Arrighetti after many months of skepticism and am beginning to give the Astros the benefit of the doubt for crowning him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2023 despite terrible results.
With that, this one should tip towards the Astros. We've seen a bevvy of action on the road underdogs, and it's with good reason considering their offense has been the second-best in baseball over the last two weeks and will take aim at Corbin Burnes amidst his worth month of the season.
This team can hit for power, and Burnes has now allowed 10 homers in his last 10 starts after surrendering two to Boston last week.
Best Bet: Astros ML (+135 at BetMGM)
MLB BEST BETS FOR NEW YORK METS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES
The last time Dylan Cease faced the Mets in June, things did not go very well. He turned in his worst outing of the season, allowing seven earned runs over 3 2/3 innings with three walks and two home runs doing plenty of damage to his line.
This go around, I'm not certain much will change. I doubt he'll give up seven runs before the fourth inning is completed with the Mets falling into a bit of a rut in the strikeout department, but there's plenty of hope elsewhere for New York.
- In June, the Mets were masterful in limiting strikeouts which is what put Cease in a precarious spot. Though that's not the case heading into this one, they're still up over 10% in walk rate in the past week with a scorching .230 ISO which is bad news for the right-hander.
- Cease's undoing has long been walks and homers, considering he still sits in the bottom 11% of the league in barrel rate and has a higher-than-average walk rate.
- These issues have been glaring of late with five free passes in his last start against Colorado to give him 17 walks over his last seven outings, spanning 26 1/3 innings, and he's now surrendered a home run in each of his past two starts.
I believe in the Mets' ability to get to Cease, but what about Luis Severino on the other side of the coin?
- The right-hander has been the complete opposite of Cease, relenting in the strikeout department in favor of aiming for outs on contact.
- As a heavy ground-ball arm, he should be in excellent spot with the Padres sitting second in OPS against fly ball arms as opposed to 12th to ground-ballers.
This is a Padres team that thrives on its ability to limit strikeouts, but a pitcher with the ability to get outs when the ball comes back into play presents a bad matchup. That's enough for me to take the Mets here, who should find some big hits with their swollen power numbers against a pitcher who loves to give up hard-hit balls.
Best Bet: Mets ML (+136 at FanDuel)
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