Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
We're set to wrap up a great weekend in baseball with a loaded slate of baseball to bet on Sunday, and we'll examine some of the games later in the day that should provide us with a wealth of betting value.
(Photo by Tony Avelar/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)
The Astros and Orioles are set to cap off a big series with potential playoff implications in Baltimore on Sunday Night Baseball, and I'm finding a surprising edge in the pitching matchup. We'll also take a look at the conclusion of Mets vs Padres and Giants vs Mariners.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Sunday, August 25.
MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK METS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES
We'll lean on platoon splits a couple of times here with several lefties, and this game in San Diego will be the first of two discrepancies that I want to take a look at.
- New York will be hoping for a bounce-back outing out of Jose Quintana, and it may just get it here with the Padres ranked 16th in wRC+ to lefties.
- San Diego is second in that category against right-handers, and it's experienced a 13-point drop in an already-middling Isolated Power at just .143 in the weaker split.
- It's also hit a shocking .243 against lefties as opposed to .275 against righties.
Quintana's big issue has been hits -- and lots of them. His Expected Batting Average was a poor .275 a season ago and sits at .268 this season. That's a ways off the league average of .245, and while he's experienced a myriad of issues which have included below-average marks across the board this has to be the glaring weakness in his game.
- The Mets lefty has also been walking far too many this season -- doing so against 9% of the batters he's faced -- but the Padres are a team that has swung the bat a good deal and in doing so hasn't walked in many plate appearances.
San Diego will throw embattled lefty Martin Perez here on the other side of the coin against a Mets tam that is second in wRC+ to lefties and has improved upon some already-stellar power numbers in the last two weeks with a .199 ISO.
Perez's xSLG is an unsightly .483 -- one of the very worst in baseball -- and the soft-tossing lefty has struck out very few and has turned to prayer on the hill as he gives up a wealth of well-struck batted balls.
The unfriendly park is a potential issue for a Mets team hitting the ball with so much ferocity, but there's a clear and discernable edge for this squad here.
Best Bet: Mets ML (+102 at DraftKings)
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MLB BEST BET FOR SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS SEATTLE MARINERS
Similar to what we attacked above, the Giants will be throwing left-hander Robbie Ray here who is beginning to settle in after missing the bulk of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
- Waiting on the other side will be a Mariners team that remains dreadful at the plate, but they've shown a particular disinterest in hitting lefties with a 25th-ranked wRC+ in that split as opposed to a 15th-place ranking against righties.
- We know Seattle will strike out a ton and aim for home runs, but Ray has allowed just three over his past four outings now and with a solid 38-point margin to the league-average xSLG and a massive park upgrade in Seattle it would seem the chances that he's taken deep here are slim.
- Ray's 33.6% strikeout rate through six starts is in elite territory, to boot, so the matchup here for the Mariners couldn't be any worse.
Bryan Woo is an exciting young arm who I see plenty of potential in, but while his expected numbers have been absolutely stellar this year he's lost his ability to rack up strikeouts at an elite pace this season, with his rate coming down to just 19.7% -- almost six points lower than where it was a year ago.
San Francisco's big issue for most of the year has been strikeouts, and it has punched out over 27% of the time in the last two weeks.
It's still managed to rack up hits when the ball has come back into play and has shown that it's not all about power, and while I'd have to admit the conditions here for offense aren't great for either side I think you have to favor the team that should be aided by the pitcher it will be facing.
I like Ray to get a win over his former team in a revenge spot, and it may take just two runs for the Giants to get this done.
Best Bet: Giants ML (+120 at BetMGM)
MLB BEST BETS FOR HOUSTON ASTROS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES
I'm a noted doubter of both Yusei Kikuchi and Dean Kremer, but we've got to be objective here as we find the best way to bet on Sunday Night Baseball this week.
Kikuchi has been a completely different pitcher since joining the Astros, posting an ERA better than three runs in his four starts in Houston, and the biggest improvement has been in his strikeout numbers -- which have spiked to a season-best 34.1% this month with the Astros.
- The Orioles are going through a tough stretch at the plate right now, and in the last two weeks they've been striking out at a greater clip at 23.2%.
- Their strikeout rate against lefties also sits three points higher than their strikeout rate against right-handers.
If Kikuchi can continue racking up punchouts, we should see him thrive here against Baltimore, whose issues with putting the ball in play have been coupled with a drop in power and continued mediocrity in the walk department.
- In fact, neither team has walked much this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league in walk rate, and that has remained the case in the last two weeks.
That brings me to Kremer, who has pitched to a ton of fly balls with poor results and has also continued to walk more and more batters as the months have gone on. He's now issued a free pass to over 12% of the batters he's faced this month, but that number should come tumbling down against Houston.
Kremer's chances of limiting power at a somewhat-friendly Camden Yards should be strong, too, against an Astros team that is hitting for less power in the last two weeks and has been highly volatile at the dish.
I like both pitchers to do their jobs here.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)
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