Best MLB Bets Today: Division Series Predictions for October 10

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We very well see the American League Division Series come to an end on Thursday with both the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees sitting just a game away from advancing through to the ALCS.

(Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

While New York seems to stand a good chance as a strong favorite behind reining Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole, things might get interesting in Detroit as Tanner Bibee takes the hill for Cleveland facing elimination.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Thursday, October 10.

MLB BEST BET FOR CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS DETROIT TIGERS

It's not very common for me -- or anyone -- to start off by talking about a team's numbers against fly ball pitchers, but I want to get the tough news out of the way first.

• Detroit has sat right around the middle of the league in OPS to fly-ballers all season long, ranking in the bottom five against ground-ballers, which could throw a wrench into Bibee's plans on Thursday.

Having said all that, the matchup should still be a friendly one for the talented youngster.

Bibee's pedigree as a high swing-and-miss arm and master of control with a low 6.2% walk rate should jive with Detroit's approach and spoil the party at home at Comerica Park.

Detroit has thrived in taking walks during the postseason, doing so at a near-12% clip, but with Bibee looking unfazed by this in Game 1 with just one free pass against him, the Tigers' offense should take a natural dive. Mix in the fact that Detroit's struck out in nearly 30% of plate appearances during the playoffs, too, and the likelihood that the bases become populated is quite low.

• That will put the onus on this Detroit bullpen to continue pitching well, but after taxing the stable on Wednesday with five arms going -- three of which throwing 20 or more pitches -- this team could very well be playing for Game 5.

Detroit will likely have to lean on its top prospect Jackson Jobe here in some regard, a scary thought after he was rocked in his only postseason appearance in Houston. It will also be inclined to rest Beau Brieske and perhaps another top reliever in Will Vest, which could mean the highly volatile Jason Foley works one or more important frames.

The state of this bullpen simply isn't great entering Thursday's game, and as a unit that's pitched to a ton of contact this season, the thought of going up against a formidable Guardians lineup which has really only been held down by poor strikeout numbers during the playoffs could be a worrisome one.

I like the Guardians to level the series and bring it back to Cleveland for a decisive Game 5.

Best Bet: Guardians ML (-120 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The Over has hit just once in the Yankees' last six games, but it came in Game 1 of this series when Gerrit Cole took the ball against Michael Wacha.

Now, facing off once again in Game 4, I think it's time to fire up the Over again.

• The Yankees have certainly struggled to hit the Royals' pitching staff, posting a .211 average through three games, but one impressive feat has been their ridiculous 18.5% walk rate which has come against some of the best in the AL in limiting walks.

That includes Wacha, who issued three free passes to the Yankees over the course of four innings in the opening game, and in all the Yankees have hit the ball considerably better than the numbers would lead you to believe with a .259 Expected Batting Average in this series.

• Playing in the spacious Kauffman Stadium, I think the Yankees will see more balls fall for hits as they continue to pepper this talented outfield, but on the flip side the Royals have sported an OPS that's 62 points better at home this season.
• That leads me to believe that this could finally be the night where we see both offenses break free from the slog that has been this series.

Gerrit Cole certainly wasn't great in the first game of this series, pitching to a brutal .355 xBA and .719 xSLG, but the biggest number that caught my eye was four strikeouts over five innings.

In punching out under 18% of the batters he faced, Cole failed to capitalize on a glorious opportunity against a Royals team which ended the season striking out more than just about every team in the league.

With Kansas City well familiar with how to use the dimensions of this huge outfield to its advantage and showing the ability to make plenty of contact in the last three games, it should once again make Cole look human. That, in chorus with some expected positive regression for the Yankees, should deliver us the Over.

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Catch all the latest updates and tips before placing your bets in our betting news section.

MLB Betting Resources:

MLB Betting

MLB Odds

MLB Live Odds