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The Los Angeles Dodgers pulled themselves out of 2-1 deficit against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, taking two straight against their division rivals to move on to the NLCS where they'll now have to solve the red-hot New York Mets.
(Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
We'll be treated to another start by Kodai Senga, who's been sidelined for most of the season but came roaring back to help the Mets to victory against Philly last round. While he profiles well in this matchup, the same can't be said for the struggling Jack Flaherty, who may be a liability for L.A. in this one.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Sunday, October 13.
NEW YORK METS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS PREDICTION
The Mets have been road warriors over the last month, taking two of their last three away from home to punch their ticket to the playoffs before winning a three-game set in Milwaukee in the wild-card round and taking Game 1 in Philadelphia to get into the driver's seat in the NLDS.
- Now, they'll head back to Dodger Stadium where they won a three-game series back in April with the tantalizing Kodai Senga on the hill.
Senga sizzled in his lone start against the Dodgers as a rookie last year, striking out nine over six innings of one-run ball with a solid .309 Expected Slugging over the course of that outing. He's only pitched twice this year after battling injury, but when he's been on the bump he's been just as solid with nine punchouts over 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball in a huge win over the Braves in late July and two effective innings against the Phillies in the NLDS.
The Japanese hurler's frequent struggles with walks would normally be a concern against a patient team like the Dodgers, but they've walked in fewer in 8% of plate appearances during the playoffs and have hit .228 on top of that. He'll also step into a great matchup as a fly-ball pitcher considering the Dodgers' OPS against these types was more than 40 points worse than in the reverse split this season.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jack Flaherty has really struggled down the stretch after finding his level again earlier this year in Detroit, yielding a .271 Expected Batting Average over the last month of the year with a depressed 24.3% strikeout rate and brutal 10.3% walk rate.
Flaherty's struggles have persisted into the playoffs, where he allowed four earned runs over 5 1/3 against the Padres with two home runs. He finished his outing with a .300 xBA and .539 xSLG, while Senga's expected results, in his two innings versus Philly came in well beneath those marks.
The Mets have done an excellent job of taking walks this postseason at over 10%, and rank second among all teams in hitting .242. They should have a myriad of ways in here against Flaherty, exploiting his issues with walks and continuing to do damage on contact against a suddenly-hittable arm.
New York's bullpen stands to be this team's only real weakness, especially with L.A.'s looking stronger than ever, so we'll skip over the full game and go with the Mets to lead after five innings.
Best Bet: Mets First Five ML (+130 at
DraftKings)
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MLB PLAYER PROPS FOR METS VS DODGERS
This market's an enticing one, because it's really a mystery how long Senga will stick around in this game. He threw 31 pitches over two frames against the Phillies eight days ago in the NLDS, but I'm willing to bet that New York will lean on him to work a bit longer in this contest after he responded well in his first start back from injury.
- It only took him two innings to reach three punchouts in that one, and with his long track record of racking up third strikes he should be worth the investment on Sunday night.
As we covered above, Senga struck out nine in his lone appearance against the Dodgers, generating a solid whiff rate and really only struggling when attempting to nibble around the zone against a patient bunch.
This has been a different Dodgers team in the postseason, struggling to take walks against all Padres not named Dylan Cease -- who's exhibited some of the worst control in baseball in his career. This should be another friendly matchup for Senga, whose forkball is rarely seen by opponents and promises to deliver him more strikeouts.
Best Bet: Kodai Senga Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-110 at BetMGM)
I'll be a believer in the Wink Man yet again on Sunday, standing the best chance of anyone in this order to have a monster game at the dish.
- The veteran has a team-high eight hits against Flaherty in his career, coming in a hefty 21 at-bats to deliver him a .310 xBA and .622 xSLG.
- He's live to go for extra bases here, too, considering he's homered twice against Flaherty with three doubles on top of that, but I'll gladly accept this generous discount on him to simply generate one knock.
Winker's only struck out three times in his 24 plate appearances versus Flaherty, so with the ball coming back into play he should stand an excellent chance to cash this one for us with his .373 xBA this postseason.
Best Bet: Jesse Winker Over 0.5 Hits (-110 at FanDuel)
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MLB NRFI PREDICTION FOR METS VS DODGERS
The NRFI has cashed in just one of the Dodgers' games this postseason, but it did come in the final game of the NLDS against the Padres. The Mets, meanwhile, have cashed the NRFI in four of seven games.
- Considering Flaherty has gone 22-6 to the NRFI this year and finished the regular season cashing it in four of his last five, I think there's value in backing the NRFI here.
It seems a bit terrifying with Flaherty and Senga both allowing a run in the first inning of their respective playoff starts, but the good news here is that Francisco Lindor is 0-for-4 in his career versus Flaherty while the rest of this order is wildly inexperienced against the righty.
- Senga, meanwhile, has only struggled against Mookie Betts atop this order, but he's had an abysmal postseason -- hitting .222 -- while Shohei Ohtani has been nowhere to be found at .200.
I expect Senga to make quick work of the Dodgers' lead men, and while Flaherty stands to struggle here he's been excellent in starting games and has done enough to earn our trust with plenty of competent first innings down the stretch even without his best stuff.
NRFI Prediction: Mets vs Dodgers NRFI (-120 at FanDuel)
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