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Best MLB Bets Today: Guardians vs Yankees Predictions for ALCS Game 1 (October 14)

Kenny Ducey

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Sports Reporter | Capper

Publish Date: Oct 14, 2024

Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

The New York Yankees faced some adversity in the ALDS, but managed to lean on their pitching staff to move past the Kansas City Royals to set up a favorable ALCS matchup with the Cleveland Guardians beginning on Monday.

(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Carlos Rodon will get the start for the Yankees, coming off an excellent close to the season and a start against the Royals last week which didn't end the way he'd hoped but featured plenty of highlights. With New York's offense looking primed for a breakout against Alex Cobb, can they get the job done here in Game 1?

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Monday, October 14.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS NEW YORK YANKEES PREDICTION

This Yankees offense is hitting just .220 so far through four postseason games, but it should be said they've been the victim of bad luck to this point.

New York ranks second among the 12 playoff teams with a .280 Expected Batting Average and first with a sweltering 39.5% hard-hit rate.
In chorus with a ridiculous 17.3% walk rate, the Yankees' failure to score runs shouldn't persist much longer -- particularly in a matchup with Alex Cobb.

The right-hander struggled to a .278 xBA last season as he lost his ability to pitch to ground balls, and while he made just three starts in 2024 amidst an injury-shortened season, we saw much of the same with a .280 xBA coming as the result of more well-struck ground balls.

New York finished second in OPS to ground-ball arms this year, hitting .280 along the way, and these hitters own a solid .275 xBA and .526 Expected Slugging versus Cobb in his career to set up a mouth-watering spot for some positive regression.

On the other side of the coin, Rodon found seven strikeouts against the Royals after finishing the year with a blistering 30.1% strikeout rate and whiff rate near 35%. The Guardians sat second-worst in OPS to "power" pitchers like Rodon this year and have struck out a bit more than they're used to this postseason at 22.8%.

Even against a lefty -- a favorable split for the Guardians -- I believe Rodon should have continued success and hand things off to a bullpen which has yet to allow a run in more than 15 innings during the playoffs. The Yankees' meanwhile, should tee off on Cobb and get to a bullpen which has taken a step back this postseason, sitting ninth in ERA.

Expect New York to move to 5-2 against Cleveland in 2024.

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-160 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB PLAYER PROPS FOR GUARDIANS VS YANKEES

There's really only one way to go here, and that's on Cobb to allow more than three hits in his Game 1 start.

The right-hander owns an aforementioned .275 xBA against this Yankees lineup in his career, and at Yankee Stadium he's been even worse with a .286 xBA.
New York hit .280 against ground-ball pitchers like Cobb this season, and with the second-best xBA in the postseason stand a great chance to rack up plenty of knocks in this one as it chases the veteran from this game.

Cobb allowed four hits in 3 2/3 innings in his most recent start against the Yankees which came last April as a member of the San Francisco Giants, and as we expect positive regression to hit this lineup we should be encouraged by the fact that the Yankees picked up eight hits last time out against the Royals.

There's a chance that a short start keeps us from hitting this generous number, but that should be counter-acted by Cobb's historic ability to limit walks -- enticing New York to swing the bat a bit more often here.

Best Bet: Alex Cobb Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-131 at Caesars)

Catch all the latest updates and tips before placing your bets in our betting news section.

MLB NRFI PREDICTION FOR GUARDIANS VS YANKEES

I'm a big believer in Rodon here, particularly early on after his absolutely stunning first frame against the Royals last week, but there's an extremely low chance that Cobb makes it out of the first inning alive.

Cobb allowed a run on two hits in the first inning of his lone start this postseason, and was just 2-1 to the NRFI in his three starts this year with one coming late in the season against a terrible Pirates lineup.

Aaron Judge owns a .310 xBA against Cobb in his career while Juan Soto enters with a .412 xBA and .854 xSLG. These two could easily leave the yard in their first plate appearances, but even a single could get the job done considering Gleyber Torres has reached base five times in 11 plate appearances versus Cobb with two homers and double to boot.

Rodon wasn't exactly the strongest in the first inning this season, either, at just 20-12 to the NRFI -- so I think there's plenty of reason to believe we begin this one with a run in the opening frame.