Best MLB Bets Today: Guardians vs Yankees Predictions for ALCS Game 2 (October 15)

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The New York Yankees now stand at 5-2 against the Cleveland Guardians in 2024, and will send ace Gerrit Cole to the bump on Tuesday as they aim for a commanding 2-0 lead in the American League Championship Series.

After Cole's masterclass in a closeout Game 4 against the Kansas City Royals, what does he have in store for us here against Cleveland? Will this offense continue to stumble against a pitcher it failed to score on in the regular season?

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, October 15.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS NEW YORK YANKEES PREDICTION

Cole closed the regular season on a high note, posting a .192 Expected Batting Average in the month of September and finished with a 2.53 ERA despite an unsavory seven-run nightmare against the Boston Red Sox.

• Like Rodon on Monday, Cole's strikeout numbers have been surging over the final weeks of the year, with a strikeout rate above 25% in September.
• The Guardians have now struck out in 25.7% of their plate appearances this postseason after flaunting some of the best contact skills in the league.

This could pose an issue for Cleveland, which can't take enough advantage of playing in a small ballpark with its lack of fly balls and its issues with contact should be on full display with a right-hander on the hill. This team has been markedly better against southpaws.

The Yankees, meanwhile, now lead all teams this postseason in xBA and their 52.5% hard-hit rate ranks first by a wide margin. They've done a much better job on contact than you'd assume with the lack of runs, and together with a swollen walk rate that's approached 20% this isn't a team to be doubting.

• Tanner Bibee has relied upon strikeouts this season, and with New York punching out under 20% of the time and sizzling with the ball coming back into play it should once again flaunt its bats here.

He's been a somewhat reliable arm for the Guardians this postseason, but Bibee has yielded eight hits and a troubling three walks over his 8 2/3 innings with a tough .283 xBA which should mean the hits keep on flowing.

The Yankees are now 3-1 to the run line at home against Cleveland this season, and as we expect more positive regression I think this one may very well get out of hand.

Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+130 at Caesars)

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MLB PLAYER PROPS FOR GUARDIANS VS YANKEES

It's been a tough postseason for Jazz Chisholm, who's managed just two hits in 20 at-bats, but the Yankees' starting third baseman should be in a favorable spot against Bibee on Tuesday.

• The talented infielder is hitting .270 against fly-ball pitchers over the course of his career with a strong .461 slugging percentage, recording marks of .265 and .353 in the reverse split.
• Chisholm's slugged a remarkable .488 against fly-ball arms this season, and that's the name of the game for Bibee with his extremely low 35.2% ground-ball rate.

The price here on Chisholm to record just one hit is too excellent to pass up, though I'm also going to sprinkle a little bit on him to go yard here.

Best Bet: Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 Hits (-140 at BetMGM), Jazz Chisholm To Hit a HR (+600 | 0.5u)

While I do think Cole should cruise a bit here, one man who should pose some issues is the slugging Jose Ramirez.

• The superstar is a solid 12-for-34 against Cole in his career with strong expected numbers to back it up, and while he's struggled this postseason he does own a solid 41.2% hard-hit rate.

I think luck should turn around here for Ramirez in a friendly matchup, particularly given he's struggled with punchouts during the playoffs but owns a low 19% strikeout rate against the Yankees' righty.

Best Bet: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)

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MLB NRFI PREDICTION FOR GUARDIANS VS YANKEES

While Cole stood 14-3 to the NRFI this season, Tanner Bibee was a strong-enough 20-11 in his own right. On top of that, many of these Yankees have yet to see the young right-hander very much, with none of these hitters recording more than three plate appearances.

• Aaron Judge has never faced Bibee, and Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres are just a combined 2-for 5.

With the Yankees' preference to hit ground-ball pitchers, particularly Judge and Soto, I'm confident enough that the righty can stay out of trouble just as Alex Cobb managed to do on Monday after allowing a pair of hits.

Cole's outlook should be good as well with his dominance in the first innings of games, and his his ownership of Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor in the head-to-head meetings.

With a ton of success in the first inning between these two, I expect another scoreless opening frame.

NRFI Prediction: Guardians vs Yankees NRFI (-135 at DraftKings)

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