Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
The Los Angeles Dodgers stole back home field advantage from the New York Mets with a commanding 8-0 win in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday, and will look to put the series on ice with a win in Game 4.
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will look to continue dominating after a masterful performance in Game 5 of the NLDS versus the San Diego Padres, entering into an extremely friendly matchup. Jose Quintana will take the ball for the Mets, and with his aim towards ground balls could manage to keep this game close while he's on the hill.
Let's get right into what that should mean for this one and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Thursday, October 17.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS NEW YORK METS PREDICTION
When we have a matchup like this between two ground-ball artists, it's generally hard to see a plethora of home runs and extra-base hits throwing a wrench into things.
- It'll take a barrage of hits and walks to really make this one high-scoring, and while the Dodgers are hitting just .240 in this series the Mets have been even worse at .179.
New York ranked just 19th in OPS to ground-ballers this season, paling in comparison to its seventh-ranked .742 OPS against fly-ballers, and manager Carlos Mendoza is expected to make few changes to this lineup on Thursday after another abysmal showing by hitters 6 through 9.
He chose to sit one of his best hitters in Game 3, benching Jesse Winker for J.D. Martinez and paying the price as Martinez, as well as the struggling Jose Iglesias, failed to come through in crucial situations with runners on base. Francisco Alvarez continued to be valueless at the plate, too, and has been confirmed as the starting catcher for Thursday.
- With the temperatures expected to dip below 50 degrees once again and the wind blowing in from left field, things could be tricky for both offenses to get things started.
It's important to note, too, that this should be an excellent spot for a strikeout artist in Yamamoto. He punched out just three hitters in two starts against the extremely-disciplined Padres, but will draw a Mets team which has struck out in 25% of its plate appearances this postseason.
- That, in chorus with a strong outlook in the batted ball department, leads me to believe he can avoid some of the volatility we've seen out of the rookie since he came back from the injured list in September.
Making matters worse is the fact that Jose Quintana has been wonderous this postseason, going 11 innings without allowing a run between the wild-card series against Milwaukee and a start against the lefty-mashing Phillies in the NLDS.
- The Dodgers did an excellent job against ground-ball arms this season, ranking third in OPS, but even still hit .266 in the split and scored just three runs off Quintana in their only meeting against the veteran this year.
I'm expecting a good pitcher's duel on Thursday, and while that could mean the Under cashes for the full game, it's best to avoid this Mets bullpen and a lineup which has miraculously found offense late in contests.
Best Bet: First Five Innings Under 4 Runs (+130 at
BetMGM)
Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our
MLB Live Betting Guide.
MLB PLAYER PROPS FOR DODGERS VS METS
If there's one man to trust in this Mets lineup, it's Starling Marte.
The team's five-hitter is hitting a cool .333 in this series, adding a run and an RBI in three games against the Dodgers. Batting in such a crucial run-producing spot in the order, I expect more plate appearances for the veteran with runners in scoring position -- and while he very well may cobble together two total bases this may be the way to go, with a Marte hit carrying a high likelihood of bringing across a run.
- Marte is now hitting a very acceptable .250 this postseason, and against Yamamoto went 1-for-3 this season with a double.
I'm also interested in this one with Marte limiting the strikeouts better than most in this order -- which should come in handy against a heavy swing-and-miss arm, and owning a .316 Expected Batting Average on batted balls.
Best Bet: Starling Marte Over 1.5 Hits, Runs & RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)
We didn't see much of Yamamoto since he went down with an injury in June, but he did flash his elite strikeout stuff a couple of times in four September starts with six or more punchouts against the Rockies and Cubs.
- Now, he draws a Mets team with a 25% strikeout rate this postseason, and one which punched out a whopping nine times against the rookie in their only meeting this year.
I think oddsmakers, as well as the public, may be a little scared off this market after Yamamoto registered just three strikeouts in two NLDS starts. That came in a much different matchup, however, as the Padres ended the season as the very best in limiting strikeouts while the Mets sat 15 spots lower.
New York struck out a putrid 13 times on Wednesday, with a low-strikeout arm in Walker Buehler racking up six over just four innings. I expect things to continue in that direction with some huge strikeout liabilities like Martinez and Alvarez still in the lineup.
Best Bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 at BetMGM)
Catch all the latest updates and tips before placing your bets in our
betting news section.
MLB NRFI PREDICTION FOR DODGERS VS METS
The top of this Mets order is the only part of this offense which stands a chance, and Yamamoto finished the season with a 5.82 ERA in the first inning of games this season.
- With that said, Pete Alonso was just 1-for-3 against Yamamoto in their only meting, producing a poor .204 Expected wOBA, and Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo failed to pick up a hit in five combined at-bats.
I expect Yamamoto to throw up a scoreless first, the same result we saw the last time he pitched, and on the flip side Quintana will look to continue his dominance in the first frame -- where he pitched to a tidy 3.30 ERA this year.
The left-hander has held Mookie Betts to a .242 xBA in his career, something that looks appetizing with Betts hitting just .200 this postseason, while Freddie Freeman has been held to just five hits in 16 at-bats and Shohei Ohtani's yet to face the lefty.
Considering Ohtani's been significantly better against right-handers, and has hit a poor .226 this postseason, I think the recipe for a NRFI is right here.
NRFI Prediction: Dodgers vs Mets NRFI (-140 at BetMGM)
Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our
ballislifebets
section.
MLB Betting Resources:
BALLISLIFE.COM
