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The New York Yankees have the American League Championship Series on ice, looking to close out the Cleveland Guardians on the road in Saturday's Game 5.
(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
After a masterful performance in Game 1, Carlos Rodon will head back to the hill looking to further cement his excellent finish to the season, opposite talented youngster Tanner Bibee.
With a rocky showing in his first start of this series, can Bibee be trusted to extend this series for the pesky Guardians, or will be once again be out-done by an experienced strikeout thrower?
Let's get right into this one and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Saturday, October 19.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Bibee may have gotten off to a hot start with 4 2/3 scoreless frames in his first-ever postseason start a couple of weeks ago, but since then it's been a real struggle.
- The 25-year-old has now pitched to a 6.75 ERA in his last two outings, supported by a .285 Expected Batting Average and .409 Expected Slugging.
- He's been able to pitch to strikeouts quite well this year, but he has now produced a depressed 24.4% punchout rate over those outings -- racking up just five Ks over his last two starts after going for six in his first start against the Detroit Tigers.
The Yankees have mad a habit of putting the ball in play this season, continuing into the postseason where they've struck out just 21.7% of the time to a swollen 15.3% walk rate. Their xBA for the postseason now stands at .274, and they lead all playoff teams with a 50.3% hard-hit rate.
- New York's hit the ball incredibly well for the sporadic nature of its offense, and things should continue to turn in the right direction here against a pitcher who allowed five hits and a walk to this team the last time he faced them, lasting just 1 1/3 innings.
On the flip side, Rodon was able to find a ridiculous nine strikeouts against Cleveland in Game 1, proving that even in an unfriendly matchup he was more than good enough to rise above the odds. Cleveland's hit lefties very well this season, and was playing in Yankee Stadium -- where a fly ball pitcher like Rodon carries inherent liability -- but it didn't prove to mean anything.
Rodon will now step into a much easier park to pitch to flyouts, and with his incredible strikeout and whiff rates this postseason -- up above 41% -- he should continue shutting down an offense which has produced just a .193 career average against him.
New York should avoid heading back home and wrap this up in five.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-124 at
FanDuel)
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MLB Player Props for Yankees vs Guardians
We'll take a look at two Yankees hitters here, the first being Aaron Judge.
The slugger has now pieced together a three-game hitting streak in this series, including two home runs, and should be in a good spot versus Bibee in Cleveland.
- Judge led the Yankees in three categories this season versus fly-ball pitchers, hitting .309 and slugging .715 with a whopping 178 total bases.
- He's also going to face plenty of four-seam fastballs and cutters from Bibee, two pitches he's been excellent against from right-handers with a .359 xBA and .307 xBA, respectively.
Judge's ability to hit Bibee's arsenal, coupled with his trends and his proficiency against fly-ball arms, should make him one of the best bets on the board Saturday.
Best Bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 at BetMGM)
One man who may cross the plate on one of these Judge hits is Gleyber Torres, who's now scored eight runs in eight games this postseason.
- Torres has recorded a run in six of his eight games, and with the way he's hitting he should be well-positioned to keep that trend rolling.
In the leadoff spot this season, Torres finished hitting .283 with a .350 on-base percentage, and that's been the driving force behind his .400 on-base percentage this postseason. Adding a .334 xBA to boot, with two doubles in five at-bats versus Bibee in his career, the volatile infielder should reach base multiple times here and be helped across the plate by this red-hot lineup.
Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton have been on fire in the playoffs, and we laid out why Judge should have a good game here as well. With Torres stepping to the plate five times in every game this postseason as the team's leadoff hitter, you have to like his chances of scoring.
Best Bet: Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+115 at BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Yankees vs Guardians
I'm terrified of picking a side in this market, considering on one side of the coin you've got a man who's pitched to two straight NRFIs and held a hefty record in that department during the regular season. On the other, you've got Bibee -- who allowed three runs and six total baserunners over 1 1/3 innings in his start in Game 2 of this series.
- I'd expect Bibee to falter once again, and cost NRFI bettors once again.
Soto has nearly matched Judge in terms of his performance against fly-ball arms, while a few candidates to move up in the lineup like Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo have been red-hot in this series.
I like this bet a lot, regardless of whether or not Aaron Boone chooses to move the struggling Austin Wells out of the cleanup spot, but with that looking like a possibility it looks even more grim for Bibee in the first here.
Prediction: Yankees vs Guardians YRFI (+110 at Caesars)
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