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Best MLB Bets Today October 2: Three Picks for Wild Card Games

Kenny Ducey

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Sports Reporter | Capper

Publish Date: 10/02/2024

Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

After a thrilling first day of the MLB Postseason, we're at it again on Wednesday as eight teams from around the league vie for some coveted spots in the Division Series.

(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

We'll take a look at each of the last three games of the day, starting off with a contest in Baltimore which should look a lot different than Tuesday's Game 1, and we'll follow that up by backing two winners on Tuesday which should clean up a sweep on Wednesday.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, October 2.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB BEST BET FOR KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Orioles may have been shut out by Cole Ragans on Tuesday in a somewhat stunning 1-0 victory for the Royals, but the tides should turn on Wednesday as we head for a deciding game in this series.

Seth Lugo's been able to avoid the fate that his pedestrian .245 Expected Batting Average and .396 Expected Slugging marks have promised all season long, but things appeared to catch up to him late in the season.
He posted a 4.91 ERA in August and had a couple of unsavory outings in September around some starts against struggling offenses, but this should be a reversion to what we saw in the worst of his recent turns through the rotation.

The Orioles sit ninth in xBA to curveballs from right-handers this season with a solid .427 xSLG, and against sinkers they rank seventh in xSLG. On top of that, this team owns a splendid lifetime .491 xwOBA versus Lugo, going deep off the veteran twice in 32 at-bats with a .823 xSLG.

Baltimore should find the big blows it's looking for to get on top here before turning things over to Zach Eflin, who's been rather unassuming down the stretch but has at least owned a 3.34 ERA through the first three innings this season to represent his best of the three splits.

The tough part is that this team will then turn the ball over to a bullpen which owns a 5.31 ERA in the month of September, and it's likely that the inexperienced and incredibly flawed Cade Povich comes out of the bullpen to relieve Eflin.

I think the Orioles' offensive outlook is much stronger here, and they will likely find a way to win, but I'm not confident in either team's pitching situation and have to take the Over here as a result.

Best Bet: Over 5.5 (+102 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK METS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Michael Scott once said that it takes a big man to admit when he's wrong, and I am that big man. That's how I feel here about Sean Manaea, who's been something of a lost cause over the last four seasons after failing to deliver on his potential early in his career, but turned things around in a Mets uniform this year.

Manaea's found a way to maintain his gains in the strikeout department from a season ago, missing another 25% strikeout rate by one point, and what's been even more impressive is his ability to get outs on contact.
Yes, Manaea's command remains an issue with an 8.5% walk rate, but his xBA fell to .229 this season next to a .384 xSLG -- representing the second-best marks of his career in each category.

The Brewers are nothing but fraudulent, falling back into obscurity at the plate in the month of September as they once again proved they're not as good at the dish as some of their hot months over the last three years have promised.

This is a team with a measly 99 wRC+ against lefties, ranked 15th in baseball, which misses its 10th-ranked 105 wRC+ against righties by a significant margin.

Milwaukee has been able to take walks against southpaws this season, but overall in the month of September failed to do much of that with a low 8.5% walk rate to lead to an 82 wRC+ which was one of the 10 worst in the league last month.

With a brutal 26.2% strikeout rate, this isn't looking great for this offense -- particularly given Manaea's pitched well to contact and will have a defense behind him which sat in the top five of the league in Outs Above Average last month.

To be honest, with the way this looks for the Brewers' offense and with how hot the Mets are at the dish, I don't really care which of Milwaukee's starters was going here. It's experienced plenty of volatility with its pitching, and is unrecognizable after flaunting a pitching factory we've come to know and love in recent seasons.

The fact that Frankie Montas is starting is just icing on the cake. He's long been a terrible pitcher on contact, but this season his .250 xBA and .439 xSLG have represented a decline in an already-poor profile. New York's been patient and has limited strikeouts all year, so for a man with these numbers next to a 10.1% walk rate and somewhat positive 22.6% punchout rate which has helped him salvage some starts this is dangerous.

Back New York to close this out in two games.

Best Bet: Mets ML (+100 at DraftKings)

Catch all the latest updates and tips before placing your bets in our betting news section.

BEST MLB BET FOR ATLANTA BRAVES VS SAN DIEGO PADRES

The final game of the day will see the Braves attempt to fend off elimination in San Diego when they square off against the accomplished Joe Musgrove.

Atlanta will be hoping that this start for Max Fried goes better than his last two postseason appearances, and will need a big night from its offense with the uncertainty surrounding him.

Fried's pitched two postseason games since the Braves' run to the World Series in 2021 and in that span he's posted a brutal 8.59 ERA with just five strikeouts and five walks against him.

The lefty should be in for a tough one here considering San Diego's incredible ability to limit strikeouts at just over 17% for the season, and its punchout rate has come in lower against southpaws than righties to boot.

With just an 18.1% career strikeout rate against this lineup and a poor .278 Expected Batting Average, chances are that the Padres string together some hits once again and put some runs on the board early.

That'll turn things over to Musgrove, who's been stellar since returning from injury in August. Over that span, his strikeout rate has flirted with 30% and he's brought his xBA down to .212 despite sitting at his worst mark in three years over the course of the entire season.

Atlanta's been one of the 10 worst teams this year in limiting strikeouts, and Fried's postseason track record on top of a tough matchup as a man who will face plenty of contact, should lock in this series victory for the home side.