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The New York Mets are still alive in the National League Championship Series, winning on Friday to send things back to Los Angeles where they'll once again try to take down the mighty Dodgers.
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New York will send lefty Sean Manaea back to the bump amidst a solid postseason, and L.A. seems content to save its best bullet for a potential Game 7 with the bullpen expected to work here. Might that open the door for a Mets win?
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Sunday, October 20.
NEW YORK METS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS PREDICTION
New York's been hitting the ball incredibly well in this series, and L.A.'s bullpen has not looked great. The Mets now hold a higher Expected Batting Average than the Dodgers over the course of the postseason at .261, and in this series they've struck the ball well enough by the probabilities to hit .274 -- beating out L.A.'s lowly mark of .246.
- Now, they'll head back to Dodger Stadium, a friendlier park for hitters, where they won a three-game series back in April and took Game 2 of this series.
It seems the Mets were victimized by cold, windy weather at home during this series, pasting the ball off the bat in Game 2 only to come up short and eventually fall on the wrong end of two blowouts.
- The good news here is that this Dodgers bullpen has pitched to a so-so 3.65 ERA in this series with a dreadful .293 xBA against and a .439 xSLG.
There are options abound for L.A. after Brent Honeywell ate the bulk of the innings out of the 'pen in Game 5, but it's unlikely we see Dave Roberts lean on his high-leverage guys a ton unless this becomes a close game late.
- That should mean some poor or inexperienced arms like Ryan Brasier, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius and Edgardo Henriquez work plenty of innings early, and with how well the Mets have hit that should spell disaster.
I'm generally a fan of Manaea here, too, considering he's been able to generate a ton of strikeouts this postseason and though he did walk four Dodgers in his Game 2 start he only allowed two hits.
Manaea may have struggled in his final two starts of the year, but he owns a .230 xBA against him this postseason and has worked decently well to a 8.7% walk rate with his 24.6% strikeout rate.
He may not own the best numbers against the Dodgers over the course of his career, but he's at least held Shohei Ohtani to two hits in 10 at-bats and has also improved drastically this season in New York.
With the Dodgers due for a downturn from their .257 average and with more strikeouts than usual, I think Manaea can protect the inevitable lead he's given here and deliver the win.
Best Bet: Mets ML (+130 at
Caesars)
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MLB PLAYER PROPS FOR METS VS DODGERS
I'm heading back to the well with Jesse Winker in this one -- a player who was inexplicably benched in Games 3 and 4 but has been one of New York's best bats this postseason.
- After a 2-for-3 night on Friday, Winker is now hitting .316 this postseason with an even-better .363 xBA and .718 xSLG. He's produced a hard-hit ball on 50% of his contact, and he's recorded a hit in four of his last five starts.
The veteran should see plenty of right-handed arms in this one, given the Dodgers have just one left-hander in the bullpen and will likely save him for a matchup later in the game if necessary. Even if that move was made, however, Winker's spot in the lineup should be safe considering just how well he's hit.
He's also a .304 career hitter at Dodger Stadium over the course of his career in the regular season, with three homers and four doubles making up half of his 14 hits.
Carlos Mendoza may even consider moving Winker up in the order here with how hot his bat is, which is more than enough to call this line a bad one.
Best Bet: Jesse Winker Over 0.5 Hits (-130 at Caesars)
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MLB NRFI PREDICTION FOR METS VS DODGERS
We can only assume that Dave Roberts will select his best matchup for the first three in the Mets order, even if he might not be looking to burn his high-leverage arms, and if that's the case I think we can hold our collective breath and take the NRFI here.
- Admittedly, this isn't a very strong lean, but if you're looking to get in on the most exciting bet in baseball then I think the NRFI is the way to go.
It's more of a look at Manaea, who has pitched to a remarkable 26-6 NRFI record this season and does own good numbers versus Ohtani, at the very least. He shut the Dodgers out through four innings in Game 2, and his cross-fire delivery has given even some of the best offenses against lefties fits this postseason.
I expect a clean frame, and perhaps Roberts goes to Ryan Brasier again to start -- who has held Pete Alonso hitless in seven at-bats and did allow just one hit in his Game 2 start, though it was unfortunately a homer.
NRFI Prediction: Mets vs Dodgers NRFI (-108 at FanDuel)
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