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We'll watch two more tantalizing playoff matchups on Tuesday night as both series in the National League enter the night tied at 1-1, and it's the road teams that could hold the advantage.
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
We'll explain why Aaron Nola may match up well with a Mets offense that's struggled to limit strikeouts over the past month, and there's also a lot to explain when it comes to why it makes sense to trust Walker Buehler.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, October 8.
MLB BEST BET FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS NEW YORK METS
For all the flack we give Aaron Nola, he enters the day with a 3.70 ERA in nine career postseason starts. He's averaging more than a strikeout per nine and is coming off a 2023 postseason run where he pitched to a 2.35 ERA, pitching his way to a 3-1 record.
With that being said, it's time to give Nola a hard time once again.
- The Phillies' righty has certainly done a good job in his postseason career of pitching to a wonderful strikeout-to-walk ratio near 6:1, but he's allowed a .268 Expected Batting Average in 48 2/3 innings with a miserable .428 Expected Slugging.
- It's certainly not enough to write him off here, but those who will attempt to make an argument for Nola here solely based on his postseason track record may be a little off base.
Nola's 4.05 ERA against the Mets this season is backed by a .267 xBA, but he's continued to do a great job of racking up strikeouts next to few extra base hits and walks which is something that should give him an advantage over New York here.
The Mets did a great job of avoiding third strikes this season, but they finished the year with a strikeout rate over 23% both in the month of September and over the last two weeks of the regular season. They've begun the postseason at 23.3% through five games, too, and continue to walk at a low rate.
- Philly, meanwhile, ranked inside the top five in xBA and xSLG against left-handed starters this season and finished strong with the league's top xBA to lefties over the final two months of the season.
I'm generally a believer in Sean Manaea, who's pulled himself out of the abyss this season to resurrect his career, but he owns a 5.40 ERA this year against the Phillies and has ben unable to limit the damage on contact with four homers against him over 16 2/3 frames.
I think there are some fair questions about this Phillies bullpen, and the second half of this game could be highly volatile, so I'll go ahead and bet on the Phillies over the first three
innings as Nola gets off to a solid start with his offense finding more chances against Manaea.
Best Bet: Phillies First Three Innings ML (-115 at
BetMGM)
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MLB BEST BET FOR LOS ANGELES DOGERS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES
I'll admit, I woke up from a dream this morning where I saw Walker Buehler dominate the San Diego Padres. Even in a dream, I seemed to incredibly reasonable as I asked myself who in the world was pitching so well for L.A. -- for it surely couldn't be Buehler after his nightmarish 2024 season.
Perhaps it's intuition that's led me to this handicap, or perhaps it's a bit deeper than that.
- Buehler owns an excellent 2.94 ERA in his lengthy postseason career, even after an up-and-down 2021 playoff run, and while he's been an unsavory option for this Dodgers team he's finished the year on a high note with a .237 xBA since the start of September.
The right-hander brought his ground-ball rate up to 51.9% in September as he finally found a way to pitch around some tough strikeout and walk numbers, something that should work out here considering the Padres ranked more than five spots lower in OPS to ground-ballers this year than where they sat against fly-ballers.
San Diego's profile remains the same, too, swinging at just about every pitch -- something that's helped it avoid strikeouts but has also kept walks to a minimum. This lineup has now walked in just 6.8% of plate appearances in four postseason games.
- Buehler's issues with walks shouldn't be present here, and if he can retain the improvements he's made in pitching to contact I think he's got a great shot of holding the Padres at bay.
Michael King, meanwhile, struggled down the stretch beneath the surface even as his results looked just as strong as they've been all year. His .248 xBA came in 48 points higher than the .200 average he allowed, and his strikeout rate also dropped a bit -- particularly when he saw the Dodgers in his final start of the season.
L.A. has been renowned for its plate discipline over the years, drawing walks and putting the ball in play, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday as they look to give King what's been coming to him over the past five weeks.
This is an understandable line given the lack of trustworthiness in Buehler all year long, but he just might be figuring it out.
Best Bet: Dodgers ML (+136 at DraftKings)
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