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Best MLB Bets Today: Division Series Predictions for October 9

Publish Date: 10/09/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

The MLB Postseason rolls on Wednesday with two teams aiming to lock up a place in the NLCS while the Yankees look to get back to business in Kansas City after dropping Game 2 at home on Monday.

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

We'll back two totals on Wednesday night as we expect some fireworks in elimination games in the National League, and also explain why the New York Yankees should be in a good spot to move just a game away from the ALCS in Game 3 of their series against the Kansas City Royals.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, October 9.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB BEST BET FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS NEW YORK METS

It seems pretty hard to believe that the Phillies would go quietly into the night here, particularly against a veteran pitcher in Jose Quintana who's left a lot to be desired this year.

  • The southpaw finished up the year with a 4.49 Expected ERA and .259 Expected Batting Average, both of which are in the bottom quarter of the league.

Now, Quintana will have to find a way through a Phillis team ranked inside the top five in xBA and Expected Slugging against left-handers this year, and on which sat atop baseball in xBA to lefties in the final two months of the season.

  • Even with a good start against the Phillies in September, it's hard to see Quintana shutting down this offense in the same way that Sean Manaea did on Tuesday without the ability to strike many guys out.

While Quintana and a struggling Mets bullpen should help out the cause here, New York has been one of the hottest teams in baseball at the plate over the last few weeks and Ranger Suarez has ben trending in the wrong direction.

The lefty finished up with a 6.04 ERA in the month of September, yielding five hits and three walks to the Mets in his penultimate outing with two home runs to boot.

This one should be a slugfest.

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The big handicap here is on the Royals' inability to make contact, which should come to light against Clarke Schmidt.

  • The right-hander's struck out at least five in all but one of his 16 starts this year, and owns a strikeout and whiff rate in the top 26% of all pitchers this season as he's finally found his identity.

Kansas City has struck out in over 24% of its plate appearances thus far in the postseason, and to end the regular season was just a hair under 24% in September which rated as one of the worst marks in baseball.

This is an offense that, simply put, is ice cold at the moment even with a few isolated outbursts in this series. The Royals do hit better at home, sure, but it's largely due to the fact that they can find extra bases by putting the ball into the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium.

Against a pitcher who shouldn't yield much contact, I don't expect the advantage to be there, and on the other side of the coin the Yankees should enjoy the matchup with Seth Lugo as one of the league's five best teams against ground-ballers and one which has crushed fastballs this season.

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-115 at BetMGM)

Catch all the latest updates and tips before placing your bets in our betting news section.

BEST MLB BET FOR LOS ANGELES DOGERS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES

Finally, we've got a bullpen game on the cards for the Dodgers as they attempt to stave off elimination.

  • I'm trying to avoid going with San Diego here due to the fact that the public is all over San Diego with such uncertainty on the other side of the ball, and think the Over is a far better move here.

We saw in Game 1 that Dylan Cease simply doesn't match up well with the Dodgers. He's had a whale of a time against this team all season, and as a man who hunts strikeouts at the expense of walks it makes perfect sense.

  • The Dodgers have historically been one of the league's most patient teams, ranking among the best in baseball in both strikeouts and walks over the past three seasons.

This team may be banged up with Miguel Rojas expected to miss this game and Freddie Freeman playing on a bum ankle, but we can't ignore the fact that Cease yielded eight baserunners over just 3 1/3 innings when he faced the Dodgers on Saturday.

  • L.A. is going to be holding its breath with an unproven Ben Casparius getting some work here, and a bullpen which has hunted strikeouts this season should continue to be put to the test against one of the best teams in baseball at limiting punchouts.

Both offenses look to be playing the part of disruptors, and with a pitching matchup that screams runs to me, we should see both lineups rise to the occasion in a make-or-break game in the NLDS. I expect more struggles from Cease, but it's just as likely that a Padres team that's clobbered the ball at home gets to a bullpen that's looked human over the course of the second half.

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section.

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