Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
As many around the big leagues fight for playoff positioning this week, we'll take a look at the best way to bet on some of these pivotal series on Tuesday.
(Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Kutter Crawford's been the Kutter Crawford of old, and he should have a discernable edge in a huge home matchup with the Orioles.
We'll also have to talk about the run of form that MacKenzie Gore on as he steps to the Braves, and I'm incredibly interested in a buy-low opportunity with one of the American League's best tams.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 10.
MLB BEST BET FOR ATLANTA BRAVES VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MacKenzie Gore sure loves pitching against the Atlanta Braves.
- In three starts against Atlanta this season, Gore has earned himself two victories and has yielded just one earned run in each outing with 19 hits and one walk against him in 16 1/3 innings and a stellar 21 strikeouts.
Now, he'll step to Atlanta one more time in the midst of a huge down period for his NL East rival.
- The Braves rank 28th in wRC+ over the last two weeks of play, and over this span have produced a poor .236 Expected Batting Average against southpaws in particular.
- It would make sense considering two of the most important healthy bats remaining on this team are left-handed, and with the injuries the bottom of the order has been left in disarray.
Gore's been running hot with just four earned runs across his last three outings, spanning 18 innings, and he's coming of one of the best outings of his season in Miami.
On the flip side, Reynaldo Lopez has now allowed just five runs in four starts since his activation off the injured list, and while the Nationals have been palatable at the dish over the last two weeks they've lacked power and still could do with a lower strikeout rate.
I think this one should be a game for the pitchers.
Best Bet: Under 8 (-115 at
BetMGM)
Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our
MLB Live Betting Guide.
MLB BEST BET FOR KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS NEW YORK YANKEES
I know, I know. It's hard to trust Marcus Stroman these days, particularly after he ripped the heart out of his backers last go around in Texas when he was chased in the fourth inning with five runs on nine hits charged to his line.
Well, this one should be a better matchup for him.
- The Royals mustered up just four runs in a crooked loss on Monday, highlighting the issues this team has had on the road all year.
- Kansas City has now totaled just 13 runs in its last four road games, which rather unbecoming of an offense which has been dangerous for the duration of the second half, and for the season it's hitting .241 and slugging .397 on the road -- 24 and 37 points off its marks at home, respectively.
Stroman is a contact-oriented arm, which has led to some sweaty outings this season, but he did show some life in his last four starts of August, pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings.
He should fare far better on contact against the Royals, who like to utilize the large dimensions of Kauffman Stadium to steal away extra bases with their speed -- something that doesn't work all that well at Yankee Stadium.
The righty previously made it through 5 2/3 scoreless innings in Kansas City the only time he's faced off with the Royals this season, while Seth Lugo didn't fare quite as well the night prior when he surrendered four runs on eight hits against the Yankees.
This isn't a great matchup for Lugo, considering the Yankees rank third in the league against ground-ball pitchers and enjoy hitting against strike-throwers who rely on their defense. The recent numbers don't jump off the page, but they've been weighed down by several starts against lefties. I like this team to continue regressing positively to the mean against a hittable righty.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-140 at Caesars)
BEST MLB BETS TONIGHT FOR BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS BOSTON RED SOX
We'll finish things off here by giving Kutter Crawford his flowers. The right-hander had a disastrous run at the end of July which carried over to the start of August where he could not stop allowing home runs and struggled mightily to generate strikeouts.
- Well, he's turned things around quite admirably as he's greatly surpassed his career high in innings pitched, yielding just two longballs in his last five starts, over which he's registered a respectable 4.13 ERA and a .153 average against him.
Crawford was able to rack up a stunning eight strikeouts against the Mets last go around to boot, his highest total since mid-June, and now I think he's ready for a big home start against the Orioles.
- Baltimore continues to lack the incredible power we were accustomed to seeing earlier in the season, checking in with a .139 ISO in the last two weeks around a poor .226 average and a bloated 22.6% strikeout rate.
- The book appears to be out on many of these hitters, and in their last five games the Orioles have managed to score just seven times.
Crawford's expected numbers have been trending in the right direction along with the results, and the same can't be said for Albert Suarez on the other side of this one.
The righty did spin six scoreless innings against the Red Sox just under a month ago, but he allowed seven hits in the contest and in the three outings since has allowed 20 hits in 17 frames. Most concerning is the fact that he's now allowed five home runs in his last three turns.
Boston may be slumping in its own right, but it's still cleared Baltimore in the power department by a solid margin ovr the last two weeks and has really just been victimized by the strikeout. Suarez ranks in the bottom 16% of all pitchers in punchout rate, and with the friendly contact he's serving up the home side should have the clear edge here.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-134 at FanDuel)
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