Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
We've got less than two weeks to go in the 2024 season, and to celebrate we'll power into the weekend by betting on a few big games involving playoff-hopeful teams.
(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
The Philadelphia Phillies should be well-positioned to get back at the Mets in the second game of their series, while the Twins and Red Sox may cool down even further at the dish with two talented arms taking the ball.
- We'll also look into the Angels as they attempt to play spoiler against the Astros, carrying a potential edge in the pitching matchup into this one.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, September 20.
MLB BEST BET FOR MINNESOTA TWINS VS BOSTON RED SOX
I'm not entirely sold on either rookie pitcher in this one in general, but Friday should present a good matchup for each of the two as they look to sustain a recent run of success.
Starting things off, David Festa will be in a dream spot against a Red Sox team that has led baseball with a 29% strikeout rate and been among the worst with a 6.5% walk rate over the last two weeks.
- Festa sits inside the top third of the league in whiff and chase rates, helping him to a very impressive 28.1% strikeout rate in his first season at this level.
- The right-hander has had some issues with walks as he remains hellbent on compiling punchouts, but should be aided in his quest here by the Red Sox.
Richard Fitts, meanwhile, has made just two starts at the major-league level against some pretty poor competition. With that said, he's passed those tests with flying colors, and between Triple-A and the big leagues his ERA is well under three runs since July 21st.
- Fitts, like many fellow rookies including Festa, has had some issues with walks so far but in a similar vain should be helped out by a Twins team that's walked in just 6.4% of plate appearances over the last 14 days around some brutal strikeout numbers.
Fitts was solid in both categories in the minors, and with Minnesota hitting just .210 over this span he should be able to work deep into this one as he continues impressing in his first taste of big-league action.
This number is far too high when you consider both offenses are ice-cold at the moment.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-106 at
FanDuel)
Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our
MLB Live Betting Guide.
MLB BEST BET FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS NEW YORK METS
The Phillies had a great showing at the plate on Friday in what was a tough 10-6 loss to the Mets, but I think Friday will see the visitors move one game closer to locking up the National League East.
- That's because David Peterson, one of my least favorite pitchers in all of baseball, is taking the ball for New York.
The left-hander continues to amaze, pitching around a .267 Expected Batting Average to a tidy 2.85 ERA. He's not striking guys out, he's walked almost 10% of the batters he's faced, and he's giving up a ton of quality contact.
Peterson's luck ran out two starts ago, and while he pulled it back last go around against the Phillies he shouldn't have as much success here.
- Philly continues to hit for power, but has been held back by a growing strikeout trend in the last week of play -- something that shouldn't continue against Peterson, who has punched out fewer than 20% of the hitters he's faced.
- His inability to throw strikes should come to the surface here against a team that ranks seventh in walk rate.
The Mets may be red hot at the moment, but their performance against lefties has fallen a bit since the start of August with a .250 xBA in the split over that time.
- Cristopher Sanchez is a man alive right now, sporting a 1.35 ERA in three starts this month, including seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets earlier in September.
There's nothing to suggest Sanchez isn't earning these results, either, limiting power all season long as he pitches well to contact. He should fend off the Mets enough here for his offense to deliver Peterson the result he deserves.
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-105 at DraftKings)
BEST MLB BETS TONIGHT FOR LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS HOUSTON ASTROS
It's always fun to look towards teams trying to play the role of spoiler at this point in the season as oddsmakers set heavy lines on favorites who are pushing towards the playoffs against teams that are already out of the race.
- We'll have the chance to do that on Friday when Tyler Anderson takes the ball against the struggling Justin Verlander.
The left-hander hasn't been the most exciting pitcher in the world this season, but he's owned perfectly average peripherals all season long as he's worked to a 3.60 ERA.
- He draws an Astros team here that did hand him a loss the last time he pitched, but has fallen significantly over the last week of play with a .231 average and poor 81 wRC+ overall.
Houston really
struggled against some Padres pitchers who shouldn't have had an advantage, and if that persists we're looking at an arduous spot with Justin Verlander on the hill.
The veteran has pitched to a terrible 5.20 ERA as the strikeouts have dried up and the walks have become a real issue in recent starts, something that's concerning when you consider the Angels have walked in almost 10% of plate appearances over the last two weeks with some power flashing on occasion.
- The Angels have been victimized by strikeouts, but Verlander has struck out just eight over his last four starts.
With seven walks in three starts this month and waning strikeout numbers, the Angels should have a fair chance here -- particularly with Anderson continuing to go about his business.
Best Bet: Angels +1.5 Runs (+102 at DraftKings)
Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our
ballislifebets
section.
MLB Betting Resources:
BALLISLIFE.COM
