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We're set to power through another pivotal week in the big leagues as many teams chase after coveted playoff spots, and on Tuesday we'll start some series that will prove to be action-packed and highly entertaining.
(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
We'll begin by heading back to New York to play this series between the Red Sox and Mets before discussing a tough spot for the Yankees offense and previewing the Freeway Series between the Dodgers and Angels.
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 3.
Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)
MLB BEST BET FOR BOSTON RED SOX VS NEW YORK METS
The angle we took a look at, and made money off of, in Game 1 of this series was the Mets' formidable power bats against a Red Sox starter who has had issues keeping the ball in the yard. We'll have another opportunity to put that angle to work on Tuesday.
- Kutter Crawford has begun to run out of gas after surpassing his previous career-high in innings pitched this season, stumbling to a 6.32 ERA in August to put his season numbers in a spot of peril.
- Even at his best, however, the one thing Crawford has struggled with is home runs. He's now allowed a stunning 28 in 28 starts, and his Expected Slugging Percentage sits firmly above the league average at .428 this season.
Crawford's taken a heavy fly ball approach this yar, something that shouldn't work out very well against the Mets. Not only has New York ranked third in OPS to fly-ballers and just 26th in the reverse split, it's a nightmare matchup for any contact-oriented pitcher on account of the .170 Isolated Power it's produced this year.
The Mets' home run-to-fly ball ratio over the last two weeks stands at a menacing 15.2% as they remain a threat to leave the yard against just about anyone, and with Crawford's strikeout numbers waning they should look even stronger here given a 27% strikeout rate in the last 14 days has done well to cool them off a bit.
- While the Red Sox have struggled to hit lefties, they'll draw a great matchup with David Peterson here on the other side of things.
The veteran southpaw has pitched to ground balls quite poorly with a .274 Expected Batting Average against him in 16 starts, and the Red Sox sit atop baseball by a wide margin with an .844 OPS against these types.
Boston's biggest detractor has been strikeouts, of which Peterson has generated very few, and with the continued ability to do damage on contact it should be able to uphold its end of the bargain here as we head for a high-scoring game.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-118 at
DraftKings)
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MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS TEXAS RANGERS
One team which might not overcome its issues against left-handers is the Yankees, who rank first in wRC+ to righties but just 13th in the reverse split.
- New York has now mustered up just four runs off of the last three left-handed starters it's faced, and backing up to the beginning of August just three of 12 lefty starters have surrendered more than three runs in their starts.
The Rangers will deploy Andrew Heaney here against one of the many teams that has employed him before, and he had an acceptable outing against New York early last month when he allowed three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a game which eventually went over the total later on in the proceedings.
Heaney has looked brilliant in his last two starts, even against weak competition, with 10 innings of one-run ball and 10 hits against him.
- He's struck out 18 over his last 14 1/3 innings and should be more than capable of doing the job here against a Yankees lineup which dreads lefties.
The Rangers haven't been great against lefties either, ranking 19th in wRC+, and despite their standing as a team that likes to put the ball in the air they're just 26th in OPS to fly ball pitchers.
Carlos Rodon should have a fair shot at bouncing back here given the splits and the fact that Texas is a terribly undisciplined team with some concerning strikeout and walk numbers right now. Those have been the two areas where Rodon has filled the stat sheet, and as he continues to look competent with a .231 xBA around some tough results I think this one will sneak under the total -- at least early on.
Best Bet: First Five Innings Under 5 (-120 at BetMGM)
MLB BEST BETS FOR LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Reid Detmers struggled so mightily earlier in the year that the Angels decided to send him back to Triple-A in the middle of his fourth big-league season. Well, he's earned the trust of this organization once again and will make a big start against the Dodgers in the first of three out in Anaheim on Tuesday.
- Detmers has racked up 19 punchouts across his last three outings in the minors, spanning 21 innings, and in those frames he's allowed just three runs and one homer.
This should set up nicely for the Halos on Tuesday, considering four of the last five left-handed starters to face the Dodgers have allowed three or fewer runs. L.A. has had a surprisingly mediocre season in terms of limiting strikeouts, and against Detmers it has punched out 23 times in 19 innings in four meetings.
- Detmers had success the last time he faced the Dodgers at home, striking out eight across seven scoreless a year ago, and he should do enough here to keep the visitors at bat while this offense gets to a weak Walker Buehler.
The righty finished August with a bloated 6.00 ERA in three starts after his re-activation off the injured list, and the toughest pill to swallow is that opponents haven't had to work very hard against him considering he walked eight and struck out just eight in 12 innings.
The Angels may be struggling at the moment, but they have at least proven they can walk at a league-average clip and own a decent-enough .166 Isolated Power over the last week. They should be plenty capable of keeping pace with the Dodgers against Buehler and his bloated .274 xBA on top of the many other issues he's had.
Best Bet: Angels +2 (-122 at DraftKings)
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