Best MLB Bets Today September 6: Three Picks for Friday

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

The weekend is finally here, and as several teams around the big leagues fight for playoff positioning we'll take a look at the best way to bet on some of these pivotal series.

(Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

I'm going to ride with the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks, who have solidified their hot start to the summer, and I'm also eyeing two talented arms in Pittsburgh and a great spot for both starters in Miami.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, September 6.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB BEST BET FOR WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

If you've been here before to read my daily breakdowns, you'll know I love DJ Herz. The left-hander has some serious swing-and-miss talent, and around some tough luck on home runs and sporadic walk issues he's put together a great rookie campaign.

• Now, the task at hand will get a bit easier as Herz enters into a great matchup with the Pirates, made even sweeter by the fact that he'll pitch in a very friendly ballpark.

The Pirates have been guilty of striking out too much this season, doing so in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances to very few walks, and over the last two weeks they've produced a middling .127 Isolated Power.

That will aid Herz in his ability to rack up outs here, considering Pittsburgh should be the latest to fall victim to Herz' excellent strikeout upside and shouldn't be capable of hitting him there it hurts in the power department. This game will also be played at PNC Park, which ranks 26th in Park Factor for home runs in the last three years running.

• If Herz's heavy fly ball and strikeout approach proves to work out in a great spot, this game should come in comfortably under the total.

That's because another talented arm, Luis Ortiz, will be working the other half of this matchup.

The right-hander has dazzled across his last two outings, throwing 12 scoreless innings with just five hits and four walks allowed, and the Nationals enter this one with a poor 7.7% walk rate in the last 14 days as they continue to struggle after dealing away two big bats at the trade deadline.

Dylan Crews has been a bright spot, sure, but CJ Abrams has been dropped in the order amidst a huge slump and James Wood has also begun to struggle over the last month. This is a team ranked just 20th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and against a fellow fly-ball arm in Ortiz, we should see flyouts galore in this one as both pitchers work deep.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS MIAMI MARLINS

I've long been a fan of Edward Cabrera, and it's hard not to be with his talent.

• The right-hander has now posted a 25.9% strikeout rate across four abbreviated seasons, and his clear issue has been controlling his pitches on account of his 13.5% career walk rate.

Nothing much has changed this year for Cabrera, who remains hungry for strikeouts and living in the extremes in both of those categories. He's maintained a solid Expected Batting Average over his career and now has begun to grow into the season with a 3.58 ERA in August after returning from injury.

• The Phillies present an excellent matchup for Cabrera as a terribly impatient team, walking at a low 7.6% clip in the second half with a concerning 22% punchout rate.

Considering the plate discipline numbers and the fact that this game will be played in a pitcher's park, which is the total opposite of Philadelphia, this team's all-or-nothing power approach should fall flat against Cabrera.

If that's the case, then this one should soar under the total.

Zack Wheeler will take care of business on the other side, coming off a sparkling month of August where he recorded a 1.62 ERA in six outings. He still sits just outside the top 10% of pitchers in xBA and xERA and will get a park upgrade he simply doesn't even need considering the Marlins remain flat at the plate and continue to strike out at a very high clip.

Believe in both arms here.

Best Bet: Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)

MLB BEST BETS FOR ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS HOUSTON ASTROS

Are we seeing Brandon Pfaadt 4.0? Well, the ever-improving right-hander teased us with a 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers last go around, where he scattered eight hits and three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.

• Now, he'll step to the mound against an Astros team which has cooled off at the dish and sits 14th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Pfaadt should have a fair chance of keeping the good times rolling in the strikeout department with Houston seeing a third strike in 22% of its plate appearances during that span and as an expert in control we should see plenty of balls coming back into play against a man who improved his Expected Batting Average last month and brought it under .250.

• I think there's enough to like here to back Arizona to win this one. It sits atop baseball in offensive production over the last two months and brings a still-stellar .212 Isolated Power over that timeframe into this matchup.

Framber Valdez has been a scary man to fade, but he's got to come back to Earth eventually. The heavy ground-ball arm will contest a Diamondbacks team ranked fifth in OPS to ground-ballers and with excellent marks recently in the strikeout and walk categories they should really put the left-hander to the ultimate test.

The Astros' defense has struggled this year, and in August their infield ranked 22nd in Outs Above Average. With so much contact coming from Arizona and its menacing power, this should present some issues.

We also have to note that despite his neat-and-tidy results on contact, Valdez is still allowing hard-hit balls at over 45% for a second straight season, an we know his opponent here can hit the ball incredibly hard.

This is as good a spot as any to fade Valdez, and it's rare to see a team running this hot offered at such a price.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+150 at Caesars)

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