Sports Reporter | Capper
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are just a win away from capturing a second World Series in four years, and they'll look to close things out in New York on Tuesday against a deflated Yankees side.
With uncertainty abound in the pitching matchup, and New York continuing to get runners on base, might we see the first slugfest of this series break out in an elimination game?
Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, October 29.
It's not as if the Yankees are in a much better spot on Tuesday, considering Luis Gil will get the ball with the season on the line.
L.A. may be struggling to take its walks in this series, but as one of the best teams in baseball at doing so during the regular season and as one which has still walked over 11% of the time this year, walks should be easy to come by against Gil.
The volatile youngster owned a dreadful 12.1% walk rate this season, which looked nice next to his 26.8% strikeout rate, but against a disciplined team this style has the tendency to backfire.
Gil was only able to make it through four innings against the Guardians, allowing six runners to reach, and as a fly ball arm he should have his hands full with a slugging Dodgers team inside the small Yankee Stadium.
On the flip side, however, the Yankees continue to produce an overwhelming hard-hit rate coupled by a good dal of walks, and with L.A. seeming content to punt this game with its bullpen working we should see plenty of scoring.
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Will Smith has been the unluckiest man in this series, hitting just .100 despite posting a .319 Expected Batting Average and .645 Expected Slugging Percentage.
In all likelihood we'll probably only see Smith face Gil one time in such a massive game for the Yanks, which is good news considering the bulk of Smith's excellence on contact has come after the third inning against this bullpen.
I think a home run is very much in play here for Smith, who has two hits in the two series-ending games the Dodgers have played this postseason including a home run, and had three hits in last year's elimination game against the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.
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With Michael Kopech working last night for the Dodgers and Ryan Brasier receiving some high-leverage innings late, it would seem as if neither man is a real option for Dave Roberts to open up this game.
Against a long reliever like Landon Knack or Ben Casparius -- or even one of the struggling Dodgers' relievers who didn't work in Game 3, you have to love New York's chances to get a run on the board in the first.
On the flip side, Gil may be 24-5 to the NRFI this year but did allow a run in the first inning of his only playoff start and stands as a massive liability to allow a home run to a fearsome top of the Dodgers order.
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