Best MLB Bets Today July 24: Three Picks for Wednesday

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We've got a loaded slate of baseball to bet on Wednesday, with games beginning in the early afternoon and wearing on into the late hours of the day.

(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

I've picked out three pitching matchups to take a look at here, beginning in Atlanta and then continuing in a matchup down south between two volatile arms. Then, I'll heap some praise upon an overlooked Blue Jays starter.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 24.

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MLB BEST BET FOR CINCINNATI REDS VS ATLANTA BRAVES GAME 2

We were forced to wait a day to watch Chris Sale work once again for the Braves, but we'll finally be treated to another show on Wednesday evening in the second game of a day-night doubleheader between the Reds and Braves.

The left-hander has posted a handsome 2.20 ERA this month, once again dominating on contact in matching his a .211 Expected Batting Average from a season ago

• With a large complement of strikeouts once again, at a rate of 29.4%, he should be set to take aim at a Reds team which has struck out in 26.6% of plate appearances throughout July.

Sale's dominance should put the pressure on Nick Martinez, a pitcher who's being stretched out once again as a starter by Cincinnati -- something that's never worked in his career.

• Martinez is sporting a 4.83 ERA for his career in the starting rotation to a 2.95 ERA out of the bullpen.
• This season, he's owned a 7.36 ERA as a starter as compared to a 1.94 ERA in relief.

Worst of all, the right-hander pitches to a ton of fly balls, which has been unwelcomed in a hitter's paradise like Cincinnati. Truist Park ranks just a few spots below in Park Factor to home runs, and the Braves capitalize on this quite well as a team which puts a ton of balls into the air and hits plenty out of the park.

Atlanta may not have Austin Riley or Ozzie Albies right now, but it does have promising rookie Nacho Alvarez to fill in as well as plenty of hot home run hitters like Marcell Ozuna and Travis d'Arnaud. It should exploit a huge pitching mismatch and get the lead early.

Best Bet: Braves First Five Innings -0.5 (-130 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR TAMPA BAY RAYS VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Tampa Bay Rays are stuck in a place of mediocrity right now, which is about to force the front office's hand in selling at the trade deadline. They've picked things up slightly over the course of this month with more power and a higher walk rate, but strikeouts remain a huge concern.

• Tampa Bay is striking out a poor 23.8% of the time this month, and for the season stands at 24.1%.

Now, the Rays will have to face a man in Yariel Rodriguez who posted gaudy strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and thus far this year has punched out over a quarter of the batters he's faced.

• Rodriguez has limited barrels quite well -- better than 80% of pitchers -- and owns a spicy .383 Expected Slugging Percentage which comes in more than 20 points below average.

The way to beat Rodriguez is with contact and a ton of hits, and that's just not what the Rays have been about this season. Most troubling of all, they've gone from hitting a poor .234 this season to .225 this month as they trade hits in for more power.

Toronto is still searching for power on the other side of the coin, but it's registered a higher number of hits per at bat than Tampa Bay and has been much better against ground-ball types like Zach Eflin, hitting .246 in this split as compared to .237 against fly-ball arms.

For a team that hates to take walks and loves to swing the bat, the Blue Jays should appreciate this matchup against Eflin -- who's limited power but owns a perfectly average .245 xBA.

This should be a low-scoring game won by the team that can make more contact, and you have to favor the home side here as a result.

Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (+100 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB BEST BET FOR BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS MIAMI MARLINS

The big question here is simple. Who can exhibit more patience at the plate?

• Edward Cabrera has been one of the worst in baseball over the years when it comes to walking batters, issuing a free pass to 13.8% of the batters he's faced in his four partial seasons at this level.
• Chayce McDermott, meanwhile, will get the ball for his major-league debut after walking 13.5% of the batters he saw in Triple-A this season.
• He walked 11.7% in a short time there last season, and in almost 100 innings at Double-A walked over 16%.

The Orioles rank 27th with a 7.2% walk rate this year, while Miami has been even worse at 6% to sit dead last. Over the course of this month, however, the Marlins have sprung to 14th at 8.2% while the Orioles have stagnated.

Our answer here could lie in the plate discipline stats, where Baltimore ranks sixth in swings per pitch for the season and have actually swung a tick more this month. Miami, meanwhile, has been a passenger in plate appearances.

McDermott can do damage with strikeouts, sure, and the Marlins do punch out a decent bit. Baltimore has been almost as guilty, however, and in swinging the bat a ton should tip the scales towards the talented, yet flawed, Cabrera.

Best Bet: Marlins ML (+120 at BetMGM)