Best NRFI and YRFI Bets September 16: The MLB Teams to Watch Today

Regular season betting has only a few weeks remaining. It's clear the playoffs are looming: two teams have clinched postseason berths: the Brewers and Phillies.

In the American League the race for wild card spots is getting more interesting by the day. Both the Guardians and Rangers are inching closer to sneaking into wild card positions.

Casey Mize, All-Star pitcher for the Detroit Tigers (GETTY)

Both Cleveland and Texas are facing off against the teams they are chasing in their own division. The G's are in Detroit to play the Tigers, and the Rangers are across the state in Houston to meet the Astros.

My third game is the second of a twin bill between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals.

Odds in this betting guide for MLB are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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NRFI: Rangers at Astros, -120

Since they were three games on the wrong side of .500 on the morning of August 22, the Rangers are 16-6, the best mark in baseball. That stretch of success has propelled the Rangers two within a few games of a playoff spot.

The team the Rangers are chasing is Houston. Talk about a rivalry: these Lone Star Teams hate each other. The Astros are in an unusual situation: looking up at a team in the standings in their own division. Seattle has soared into first. Now the 'Stros need to win (as they did Monday over Texas) to stave off challenges for a playoff spot.

Collars tighten when big games are played down the stretch. That means advantage: hurlers. The Astros have Alan Joseph Blubaugh on the bump tonight. He's better known as AJ. But whichever letters he's called: Blubaugh has been tough in his brief MLB career.

AJ is an "opener" in tonight's tilt: the thin righty will probably toss one or possibly two innings. On September 5, he tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings against this same Texas team.

I like zero runs in the opening inning tonight in Space City.

WAGER: $120 on NRFI for TEX/HOU on Tuesday, Sept. 16. Your bet can win $100 plus your $120 stake back.

YRFI: Guardians vs Tigers, +108

Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo has a 6.30 ERA in the first inning. He's allowed seven earned runs in 10 first innings. Seems the Guardians' lefty needs to time to ease into the game.

Detroit will likely send Gleyber Torres and Wenceel Perez to the plate in the first. Perez has a .443 SLG betting right-handed against lefties. The switch-hitter has more pop from that side of the dish.

I like Detroit to get out quick in this crucial division game against Cleveland. The G's need a sweep to have any realistic chance to catch Detroit in the AL Central OR grab one of the three wild cards.

WAGER: $50 on a run scoring in the first inning between CLE/DET. If you win, it's worth $54 plus your stake.

NRFI: Braves at Nationals, -165

According to research using Stathead from Baseball-Reference, first inning scoring in the second games of doubleheaders has been 7% lower since the start of the 2021 season.

Why do MLB teams score less runs in the first inning of the second games of twin bills? I can't be sure, but I can speculate:

• Hitters are more aggressive, leading to swinging at pitches before being in a favorable count. The aggression could stem from the fact that the teams are involved in a long day of baseball.
• Batters who play both ends of a DH may be fatigued in the nightcap.
• Due to roster limitations, managers may be forced to use more players in a Game #2, leading to fewer platoon advantages.
• Umpires may be more (subconsciously) inclined to call strikes in the second game of a doubleheader. They have dinner reservations.
• Teams tend to use their best pitcher in Game 2 of doubleheaders.

I researched the last point. There was no strong evidence to show that managers select their better pitcher to toe the rubber in the second game of doubleheaders. The ERA and WHIP of pitchers selected for Game #1 and Game #2 are within 2% of each other. Strikeouts however, are higher in the opening inning of a Game Two than in Game One, dating back to the 2021 season.

The Braves and Nats are playing two games tonight Most baseball fans don't care: neither team will play in the postseason.

I like that Chris Sale will be on the mound for the Braves in Game 2. That's not the only reason I am betting a full unit for this game, but it helps.

WAGER: $100 that no runs are scored in first inning: odds are -165 from FanDuel.