Best NRFI Bets Today
We're back on Tuesday with some picks on the most exciting market in baseball -- the NRFI, No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)
There are plenty of exciting arms working around baseball like Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray which we'll look to for the best NRFI bets today, but there are some others that pitch to little fanfare who might be able to give us a hand in favorable matchups.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing MLB NRFI predictions for Tuesday, August 6.
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Padres vs Pirates
The Padres have been engulfed in flames offensively of late, posting a 125 wRC+ in the past two weeks, which might lead you to think twice before betting on any sort of Under in Tuesday's game.
Well, even against a pitcher as shaky as Bailey Falter, I'm willing to take that bet.
- The Padres have shown a clear preference in the platoon splits this season, ranking third in wRC+ to right-handers and 16th against lefties which should put the southpaw Falter in a better spit than expected.
- San Diego's Isolated Power has dropped by nearly 10 percentage points in this split, and the team is hitting just .240 as compared to .273 versus righties.
Falter isn't exactly an arm you want to bet on consistently, but in a bit of good news he's not only 14-4 to the NRFI this year but has hit it in six straight starts - topping the numbers of his counterpart Dylan Cease.
He'll either avoid facing regular leadoff man Luis Arraez, who hits from the left side, or step in with a platoon advantage and could even see a much weaker bat in Donovan Solano towards the top of the order.
The Pirates, meanwhile, continue to struggle mightily in making contact with a 26.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks which should make the task at hand quite easy for Cease, who relies upon his elite 32.3% strikeout clip to quiet opponents, and with that I love the Under here in the first.
NRFI Prediction: Padres vs Pirates NRFI (-125 at
BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Giants vs Nationals
I'm not as cool on the Nationals as most people after the trade deadline, considering they've continued to find bats to contribute out of thin air and haven't seemed to miss Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker all that much.
- With that said, those are still two surefire bats gone from the top of the order and even with sustained hitting the Nationals still grade out 19th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
- The story to watch here is that Washington continues to lack any sort of power to speak of with just a .118 ISO over that span and while it's hit .255 that number should come creeping back down to Earth on Tuesday.
Hayden Birdsong has made a great start to his big-league career with a 2.97 ERA in six starts, and he's pitched incredibly well to contact with a .198 Expected Batting Average which is what I'm focusing on considering his gaudy strikeout numbers will likely drop a bit against a Washington team that puts the ball in play.
Birdsong's big detractor in the minors and here in the big leagues has been allowing offenses to hit for power, posting some less-than stellar home run-to-fly ball numbers across all levels this season.
Well, the Nationals haven't proven to us that they can do that -- and Birdsong's yet to let a lineup rack up hits with any regularity.
The right-hander now stands 6-0 to the NRFI while his counterpart, Mackenzie Gore, sits at 19-3.
- Yes, the Giants have hit lefties hard this season, but they traded away Jorge Soler at the deadline along with lefty-masher Austin Slater and have now been dealing with an injury to a slumping Heliot Ramos towards the top of the order.
That should make for a much bleaker outlook offensively, and as hot as Tyler Fitzgerald has been I don't think he can do it alone against a pitcher who's proven to be competent this year and can exploit some big-time strikeout issues mounting for San Francisco.
NRFI Prediction: Giants vs Nationals NRFI (-120 at DraftKings)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Rays vs Cardinals
Sure, Jeffrey Springs' return from Tommy John surgery could have gone better, considering he yielded two runs on six hits and a walk over just 3 2/3 innings against the lowly Marlins a week ago. It's imperative that we don't lose sight of just how good this guy is, however, and I'm willing to look past a rusty start as a result.
- Springs was one of the very best in baseball two years ago, pitching to a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings prior to ending his 2023 campaign early with a 0.56 ERA in just three outings.
- The left-hander has always been someone who demonstrates an excellent command of the zone, an pitched to a .231 xBA in 2022 behind a bevvy of ground balls which should jive with a Cardinals offense which likes to put the ball on the ground.
Springs will be up against a Cardinals team that's a solid 68-45 to the NRFI this year, ranking fifth in the big leagues, and one which has cashed this bet in 62% of home games and a whopping 82% of games when they're faced with a left-hander pitcher.
- I expect this team, ranked 27th in wRC+ to southpaws, to continue struggling in a poor matchup while Sonny Gray continues to go about his business on the other side of things.
The veteran has posted a great 16-4 NRFI record this year and should pick the bones of a lineup which has seen some turnover after the trade deadline. Yandy Diaz has hit well over the last week, but his 28.6% punchout rate puts him in a perilous spot against an elite strikeout arm.
Christopher Morel is an even-bigger strikeout victim, hitting third, as is Brandon Lowe, so against three batters striking out in almost a third of plate appearances the task at hand should be quite simple for a strikeout artist like Gray.
There's great value on this line over at BetMGM considering many books have already moved this into heavier territory.
NRFI Prediction: Rays vs Cardinals NRFI (-135 at BetMGM)
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