Best NRFI Bets Today: The Matchups to Watch on Sunday, July 28

Best NRFI Bets Today

We're getting set to close out another thrilling week in baseball with a loaded slate of games on Sunday, and what better way to get to the finish line than with the most exciting bet in baseball -- No Runs in the First Inning?

(Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

I'll be heading to Citi Field in New York to back two very friendly pitchers to the NRFI before looking to one of my favorite young arms in the Midwest at a pitcher's paradise. Then, we'll go back to a tried-and-true spot to round out our NRFI picks.

Let's get into those games and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Sunday, July 27.

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Braves vs Mets

I've long been one of David Peterson's biggest critics, but it's becoming hard to ignore just how good this guy is in the first inning of games.

• Peterson is now a perfect 9-0 to the NRFI through nine starts this season, and that's come along with just four walks and a solid .138 batting average.

The Mets lefty will contest a Braves team here that's just 27th in wRC+ this month, hitting a stunningly-low .229 which should mitigate the risk with Peterson, who's constantly beaten down by a barrage of hits.

Best of all, the Braves are walking in just 6.3% of plate appearances, which is another area where the lefty struggles.

On the flip side, Reynaldo Lopez is a brilliant 17-1 to the NRFI this season with a 0.50 ERA in the first and while the Mets ar ehot, their best bats have been in the middle order with Jeff McNeil driving the ship for most of the last week.

• Pete Alonso owns just a 90 wRC+ in July while Brandon Nimmo is hitting a poor .152.

I think this one should have a tame start.

NRFI Prediction: Braves vs Mets NRFI (-120 at FanDuel)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB NRFI Prediction for Nationals vs Cardinals

I'm a huge fan of DJ Herz, and I'm quite excited to back him here in what should be an utterly friendly matchup.

Herz has pitched to a tidy .218 Expected Batting Average through eight big-league starts, helping his Expected ERA to 3.35, and most of his struggles have come in allowing home runs given his profile as a fly-ball arm.

• Well, the Cardinals are not only hitting a poor .236 against fly-ball arms compared to .244 against ground-ballers, they've also struggled against lefties.
• St. Louis has hit just 22 homers off lefties this year, which is around 1.3% of plate appearances, compared to 3% of apperances versus righties.
• The Cardinals also own just a .633 OPS versus lefties to a .723 OPS in the reverse split.

Herz has yet to allow a run in the first inning this year through eight starts and will now pitch in one of the unfriendliest parks for home run hitters. On the other side of the coin, while Miles Mikolas has been a walking liability, he'll have the benefit of dealing to a Nationals team which just lost Jesse Winker to a trade and has been treading water offensively.

This is a very generous price given what we've covered above, and with Herz's dominance in the first.

NRFI Prediction: Nationals vs Cardinals NRFI (-106 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB NRFI Prediction for Mariners vs White Sox

Finally, we'll once again go back to the well with two of the worst offenses in baseball, because this price is one worth grabbing ahead of an inevitable line move.

• The Mariners and White Sox rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in cashing the NRFI -- doing so in over 60% of their games.

We'll be treated to a pitcher's duel here, to boot. Garrett Crochet is a strikeout maestro who will battle one the guiltiest strikeout team in baseball and look to improve upon a 2.14 ERA in the first inning of 21 starts.

On the other side of the coin, Seattle will throw Bryce Miller -- a pitcher who's technically the worst of the best rotation in baseball but draws the team which has scored the fewest runs in baseball this month with a margin of 10 over the second-worst team.

Miller's been improving lately, too, pitching 16 2/3 straight scoreless innings over his last three starts against the Orioles, Padres and Angels.

Those offenses are considerably stronger than Chicago's here, and I expect the trends to continue in another slog-fest.

NRFI Prediction: Mariners vs White Sox NRFI (-145 at Caesars)