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NFL Prop Bets Week 17: Broncos vs Bengals NFL Picks and Predictions (Saturday, December 28)

Publish Date: 12/27/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The second game of the day Saturday could prove to be the best of the slate when the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals battle in a critical game with playoff implications.

While Denver will just require a win to make the postseason -- one which slipped through its grasp last week -- Cincinnati will look to keep hopes alive and avoid a loss that would all but erase its chances.

Without further ado, let's get into the best NFL player prop bets to make for Broncos vs. Bengals on Saturday as we continue Week 17.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown

Best Odds: -110 at BetMGM

This game has all the makings of a tricky one for the Bengals, given they enter as one of the most pass-happy teams in the league.

  • Cincinnati will carry the third-highest pass play rate -- and the highest on early downs -- into a game against one of the five best secondaries in football, and with plenty of throws expected Burrow is bound to make one mistake.

The veteran made it through last week's win over the Cleveland Browns without throwing an interception, but has still thrown four in as many weeks as the Bengals continue to force the issue through the air. The Broncos have done a good job overall at limiting success on these plays, giving up the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, but more than that they've forced interceptions at the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Denver has now picked off a pass in five straight games, totaling eight in all, and when you consider Burrow could be without Tee Higgins, who's listed as questionable here, the secondary could have free reign to double Ja'Marr Chase downfield and increase the likelihood of a turnover.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Chase Brown Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: -113 at FanDuel

As Burrow struggles to find open men downfield -- something that could grow even tougher if Higgins misses this one -- he should do what many quarterbacks facing Denver have done this season which is to check the ball down to his running back.

The Broncos have ranked third-worst in the league in DVOA allowed to opposing backs this season, allowing the sixth-most targets and third-most yards per game, and that's something that should thrust Chase Brown into a massive role.

  • The speedy back has had varying results in the passing game, but his usage can't be called into question after playing a season-high 98% of the snaps last week and receiving three targets for a seventh straight contest.

Brown ranks second in total targets over that span, and sixth for the season, but I'm a bit scared off his receptions here -- set at 3.5 -- after failing to haul in four passes in three of those games. He's been able to get over this number in five of seven, however, and with Denver struggling more with yardage gained as opposed to overall receptions I think this is the number we want to look at.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Bo Nix Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes

Best Odds: -102 at FanDuel

The Broncos have leaned on rookie Bo Nix a surprising amount, bringing their pass-play rate up to 14th in the NFL as we enter Week 17, and if we zoom in over their last four games we'll see that they're eighth in early-down passing rate in that time which is up five spots from their season-long number.

  • While the rookie's yardage has fluctuated a great deal as he works out the kinks, one thing that's become abundantly clear is that Denver has trusted him to throw the ball in the red zone and has relied on him to fuel its scoring

Nix has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games and has only failed to do in three of his last 11, making this line a bit unfair given the matchup.

The Bengals are ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing more than three touchdowns per game, but only one is coming on the ground.  With their secondary still sitting down in the league's bottom 10, Denver should be able to move the ball freely here and put Nix in position to strike for six.

 

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