Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Australian Open Picks, Betting Odds for Jan 21

We're in for a treat early Tuesday morning as we get ready to write the eighth chapter in the rivalry between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The 24-time Grand Slam champion is just three wins away from capturing his 11th Australian Open title, but the road will be difficult from here on out, beginning with this matchup against Alcaraz.

The Spaniard has made some improvements to his game, looking like the best version of himself to date, and after blazing through the first four rounds will have a chance to avenge his loss to Djokovic in the final of last year's Olympics.

Is Alcaraz the deserving favorite here, as oddsmakers have suggested? Let's break down the best way to bet Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open on Tuesday morning.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

It's been yet another bizarre run in Melbourne for Djokovic, who dropped the first set he played to young American Nishesh Basavareddy before struggling with a rather unknown young Portugse player in Jaime Faria.

  • Djokovic has looked a step slower at this event and has failed to impress on serve, showing some signs of a slight illness along the way.

It's normal for Djokovic to feel out his opponents and experiment a bit in the early rounds, but coming in as the No. 7 seed it certainly didn't seem as if he'd have that chance here. Still, he's come through his last two matches in straight sets and should be rather spry for this meeting with Alcaraz.

Djokovic hasn't exactly had to face a high level in recent rounds, however, as Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka failed to put forth anything close to their best levels. Prior to the Australian Open, he was toppled in the Brisbane quarterfinals by Reilly Opelka -- who did bring his A-game and prove to be far too much for the lengary Serbian player.

CARLOS ALCARAZ AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

Alcaraz has looked incredible so far at the Australian Open, touting a much-improved serve which has had him questioning whether or not he's ready to become a "servebot."

  • He hasn't had to face much of a test, like Djokovic, though he did come up against a world-class talent in Jack Draper in the fourth round and did well to come through a contentious first set before the Brit lost his legs and was forced to retire.

The serve has long been the lone soft spot in Alcaraz's game, so to see him holding with such ease has to be terrifying for the competition. He's taken a proper offseason to rest and change up his motion, and it's worked wonders.

Alcaraz has dropped just one set here, which came in rather shocking fashion against Nuno Borges in the third round, exhibiting the excellent court coverage and feel we've grown accustomed to seeing through the years. He's also played a much smarter brand of tennis, taking what his opponents are giving him and waiting for the right moment to end to the point with a winner.

This is what cost him last year at this stage of the Australian Open against Alexander Zverev, and it would be hard to see that happening again. A win here would give him his best-ever result in Melbourne.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS CARLOS ALCARAZ AUSTRALIAN OPEN PREDICTION

After a hot start in this rivalry in Madrid two and a half years ago, Alcaraz begun to lose his grip on this rivalry. He's twice beaten Djokovic on grass at Wimbledon, winning the the title there each of the last two years with a win over him in the final, but other than that it's been rather one-sided.

  • Alcaraz has lost the only match contested between these two on an outdoor hardcourt, which took place at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters, the only match on an indoor hardcourt and both matches on clay since Madrid.

It's hard to say that this one will go the same way, however. Alcaraz was exhausted from a long season when he fell to Djokovic in the 2023 ATP Finals, falling victim to poor scheduling from his team, and one of his losses on clay at the 2023 French Open came as the result of full-body cramping.

  • Alcaraz wasn't playing close to his best when he beat Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, nor was his level all that great later that year at the Olympics.

What we've seen so far at this tournament is a much stronger version of Alcaraz, and one which should have no issues against the present version of Djokovic. The World No. 7 looks nothing like he did when these two met at the Olympics, or in Cincinnati, when he needed an utterly special level to win.

No matter how deep Djokovic digs, what we've seen so far this year would suggest that there isn't a level high enough to take down Alcaraz. It would take something unforeseen to flip the script.

Best Bet for Djokovic vs Alcaraz: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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