NFL Prop Bets Week 11: Chiefs vs Bills NFL Picks and Predictions (Sunday, November 17)

It's always fun when the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet, and Sunday should be no exception.

(Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

Both teams are currently looking incredibly likely to win their respective divisions, and with just two losses between them there's a decent chance that the winner here could go on to clinch home field advantage in the playoffs.

Without further ado, let's get into the best NFL player prop bets to make for Chiefs vs. Bills this Week 11.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Kareem Hunt Over 61.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: -113 at FanDuel

Is anyone up for a narrative play? Well, with Isiah Pacheco due back from injury next week, this should be Kareem Hunt's last game as the Chiefs' lead back -- and his last chance to prove the team should keep giving him the rock over the tantalizing youngster.

• The Bills may sit right around the top 10 in DVOA against the run, but they've allowed 4.66 yards per carry this season and simply haven't been run on a lot given they stand at 8-2.

With more volume, it's possible we would begin to see the cracks beneath the surface with this rushing defense in the analytics, and with Kansas City standing at 9-0 there's little chance it will have to abandon the run at any point in this game.

Enter Hunt, who's been a machine since stepping into the starting role in the backfield. He may have flopped against a stingy Broncos defense last week, but he's still rushed for 74.8 yards per game in his six games and has eclipsed this number all but twice.

I expect a heavy dose of Hunt, and with Buffalo allowing well over 100 yards per game on the ground in the last two weeks his opportunity to run wild should be there.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Xavier Worthy Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: -113 at FanDuel

Speaking of players running out of time to prove themselves, that's how it feels for rookie Xavier Worthy.

The speedster has now hauled in just 46.5% of his targets on the season after catching one of four passes thrown his way last week, but he should have a friendly matchup on the weak side of the field against Buffalo.

• While Rasul Douglas has enjoyed a decent season, he still ranks right in the middle of the league in coverage according to Pro Football Focus and represents Kansas City's easiest avenue to move the ball with one of its outside receivers.

Behind him sits Damar Hamlin, sitting 63rd of 89 safeties in coverage, and with how strong the Bills are on the opposite side of the field you'd have to expect Patrick Mahomes to turn his head left and look for Worthy.

The 21-year-old has game-breaking speed and should be able to do some damage against a free safety and linebacking corps that has had some issues tackling this season.

BEST NFL PROP BET: Dawson Knox Over 2.5 Receptions

Best Odds: -146 at FanDuel

Dalton Kincaid will be forced to sit this big game out due to a leg injury, and that should open the door for one of Josh Allen's longtime targets to get involved in the gameplan on Sunday.

• It's true that Knox has only failed to record three receptions in a game this season, and has caught 10 passes in total, but with a target monster in Kincaid out there should be plenty of passes to go around.

The big target was already beginning to see more action, playing a season-high 65% of the snaps in Week 9 and 70% in Week 10, and now he should see that number increase even more which is good news considering his matchup.

The Chiefs rank just 20th in DVOA against tight ends, and have allowed eight targets per game to the position. That leads me to believe Knox should find himself open plenty of times, on plenty of snaps.

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